The ongoing war has entered its 12th day, and while India has not yet faced a shortage of petrol or diesel, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is beginning to trigger a global oil crisis. Crude oil prices are currently trading above $87 per barrel, reflecting the growing uncertainty in energy markets. The conflict primarily involves Iran, the United States, and Israel, but its impact is spreading across the wider Middle East and beyond. Experts say that around 13 countries in the region are directly feeling the economic and security effects of the conflict. However, analysts believe that some countries could benefit financially if the war continues for a longer period. In particular, Russia is emerging as a major beneficiary. Nearly 45% of Russia’s national budget comes from oil and gas revenues. After sanctions imposed by the United States in 2025, Russia’s revenue from energy exports reportedly declined by about 20%. For the past year, Russia had been selling discounted crude oil to India and China. But with disruptions in global supply due to tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, Russia has now started selling the same oil at a premium of four to five dollars per barrel. Meanwhile, the United States is also seen as benefiting indirectly from rising oil prices. The US exports petroleum products to around 180 countries worldwide, meaning higher global oil prices can boost American energy revenues. US President Donald Trump recently acknowledged that oil prices increased after the escalation but said the rise was still lower than he initially expected. Observers say Washington’s stated goals in the conflict have shifted—from preventing Iran from becoming a nuclear power to discussions about regime change.
