Amid the ongoing war, expectations by Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump that military strikes would spark a popular uprising against Iran’s leadership have largely failed. Instead, attacks by the United States and Israel have fueled strong nationalist unity within Iran. Public anger appears to be directed more toward external forces than the ruling establishment, with large protests emerging in support of the leadership. Israeli leadership had reportedly believed that weakening Iran’s military and targeting key institutions would destabilize the regime, based on intelligence assessments. However, weeks into the conflict, no significant internal rebellion has materialized. Analysts point to several reasons, including the swift consolidation of leadership under Ali Khamenei’s establishment, Iran’s continued military resilience, and its strong internal security apparatus. Additionally, conflicting messaging from the US and Israel—claiming both hostility and concern for Iranian citizens—has reduced their credibility among Iranians, further diminishing prospects for internal regime change.
