India has emerged as Ukraine’s largest supplier of diesel in July 2025, capturing 15.5% of the country’s total imports, according to data from Ukrainian oil market tracker NaftoRynok. Shipments averaged around 2,700 tonnes per day, one of India’s highest monthly export volumes this year.
The surge marks a stunning turnaround from July 2024, when India’s share stood at just 1.9%—a leap that underscores the shifting dynamics of global energy trade.
A Twist of Irony Amid US-India Tensions
The timing of this development is striking. Just weeks ago, Washington slapped a 50% tariff on Indian goods, citing New Delhi’s continued purchase of discounted Russian crude. Yet, even as the US penalizes India for its energy ties with Moscow, Indian diesel is playing a crucial role in sustaining Ukraine’s wartime economy.
How the Fuel Reaches Kyiv
Despite complex geopolitics, India has managed to establish steady supply routes to Ukraine.
- A major share flows through tanker deliveries on the Danube via Romania.
- Additional cargo moves through Turkey’s Marmara Ereğlisi port, where the OPET terminal remains active despite partial sanctions.
These pathways have allowed India to secure a foothold in Ukraine’s energy market, even outpacing several European partners in July.
Growing Market Share in 2025
Between January and July 2025, India supplied 10.2% of Ukraine’s diesel imports, a fivefold jump from the same period last year. While volumes from Greece and Turkey remain higher in absolute terms, India’s proportional share in July placed it ahead of all rivals.
July’s Import Breakdown
India may have led in percentage terms, but other suppliers continue to play a vital role:
- Slovakia delivered more diesel than Greece and Turkey combined.
- Poland and Lithuania’s Orlen Group together contributed nearly 20% of imports.
- Sweden’s Preem, routing fuel via Poland and Denmark, reached record export levels since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, covering 4% of Kyiv’s July needs.
India’s Economy Maintains Strong Momentum
Alongside its growing export influence, India’s domestic economy continues to accelerate. Official data from the Ministry of Statistics shows GDP expanded 7.8% in Q1 FY2025-26 (April–June), compared with 6.5% in the same quarter last year.
- Agriculture rebounded with 3.7% growth, up from 1.5% a year ago when erratic monsoons hit farm output.
- Manufacturing and construction grew 7.7% and 7.6% respectively.
- The services sector surged to 9.3%, compared with 6.8% in Q1 FY2024-25.
On the investment front, Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) rose 7.8%, up from 6.7% a year earlier, signaling stronger capital spending. Government final consumption expenditure also saw a sharp jump of 9.7% in nominal terms, more than double the previous year’s 4%.
Private consumption, though not detailed in full, remained resilient with growth slightly lower than the 8.3% pace recorded last year.
