Iran has been simmering for nearly 20 days, with millions taking to the streets against Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei. Thousands have been killed in the unrest, while the crisis has drawn international attention, including interventionist rhetoric from US President Donald Trump. The United States has openly backed protesters, while Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian has issued statements appearing sympathetic to their demands.
Despite this, there has been no coup or regime change in Iran, nor are there clear signs of one on the horizon. This raises a critical question: why have these protests failed to force Khamenei to bend, unlike the 1979 movement that toppled Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi and ushered in the Islamic Revolution under Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini?
Economic Anger Sparked the Uprising
The roots of the current unrest lie in worsening economic conditions. From early 2024, Iranians began struggling with soaring inflation, the sharp fall of the rial, disrupted electricity and gas supplies, and an acute water shortage. Public anger intensified further during heightened tensions between Iran and the US, culminating in an American strike that destroyed an Iranian nuclear facility.
The economic blow proved decisive. On December 28, 2025, protests erupted in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar, initially led by traders. The demonstrations soon spread to universities and then across major cities, gaining momentum nationwide.
Slogans Shift, Demands Escalate
As protests grew, slogans on the streets reflected changing priorities. One chant began to dominate: “Neither Gaza nor Lebanon, my life for Iran.” The slogan underscored public anger over Iran’s involvement in regional conflicts, particularly its indirect confrontation with Israel through Hezbollah in Lebanon, which many Iranians felt came at the cost of their own livelihoods.
Within a week, the movement spread across the country. Protesters’ demands escalated from economic relief to calls for freedom from Supreme Leader Khamenei’s rule. In response, the Iranian military was deployed. Security forces used batons, then live ammunition, to suppress crowds.
Death Toll Mounts as Crackdown Intensifies
According to the Iranian government, at least 2,500 people have died in military firing, while independent estimates place the death toll between 3,000 and 10,000. More than 100 security personnel have reportedly been killed by mobs. The state has responded with even harsher measures, including public executions of some protesters without formal trials.
President Pezeshkian’s stance has also evolved, with indications that he is now willing to listen to protesters’ demands. Trump, meanwhile, has openly encouraged demonstrators to seize government buildings, claiming US assistance is on the way. Reza Pahlavi, son of the deposed Shah, has urged Iran’s armed forces to side with protesters.
The Missing Link: A Unified Leader
Despite the bloodshed, Khamenei remains firmly in control. One of the key reasons is the absence of a single, widely accepted leader within Iran. Protest leaders exist both inside and outside the country, but there is no coordination between them. Within Iran, protests are largely leaderless.
History offers a clue. Past protest leaders have been swiftly crushed by the state. After the disputed 2009 presidential election, opposition leader and former prime minister Mir-Hossein Mousavi was placed under house arrest in 2011 and remains confined. Mehdi Karroubi, another prominent leader from that movement, was also placed under house arrest in 2011 and was released only in March 2025. These examples have deterred the emergence of a central figurehead in the current uprising.
Leaderless Networks, Not a Movement
Today’s protests are organised through fragmented networks. Even with internet bans, students, traders and shopkeepers gather in small groups that merge into larger crowds. Some protesters reportedly use platforms like Discord to coordinate. However, there is no universally accepted leader who could step in if Khamenei were to relinquish power, leaving a political vacuum that weakens the movement’s ability to force regime change.
Opposition Abroad Remains Divided
Outside Iran, leadership is equally fragmented. Reza Pahlavi, living in exile in the US, communicates with Iranians through media and social platforms and heads the Iran National Council. He enjoys support from the US and Israel, but it remains unclear whether Iran would accept a return to monarchy.
Republican and leftist groups within Iran oppose both Khamenei and Pahlavi, limiting his appeal as a unifying alternative. As a result, Khamenei does not currently view Pahlavi as an existential threat.
Why Mujahideen Groups Fail to Threaten Power
Another opposition force is the People’s Mujahideen Organisation of Iran (MEK/MKO), a leftist group that took part in the 1979 uprising and later opposed US involvement in Iran. However, its credibility suffered irreparably when it sided with Iraq during the Iran-Iraq war.
Led earlier by Masoud Rajavi and now by his wife Maryam Rajavi, the group’s influence is largely limited to Western countries such as France and Albania, leaving it without mass support inside Iran.
1979 vs Today: The Crucial Difference
The contrast with 1979 is stark. At that time, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, though in exile, was the undisputed leader of the revolution. There was no ambiguity about who would take charge.
Equally important was Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi’s health. Battling cancer, he frequently left Iran for treatment and eventually departed during the protests, leaving the state machinery paralysed. With no decisive crackdown, the revolution succeeded, and Khomeini returned to Tehran to massive public support.
Why Khamenei Cannot Walk Away
Despite his advanced age, Khamenei maintains firm control over Iran’s intelligence agencies, military and police. The post-1979 system centralised power in the Supreme Leader’s office, ensuring loyalty from security forces.
Unlike the Shah, Khamenei has no option of fleeing. He is not only Iran’s leader but also a key figure for the Shia Muslim world. Leaving Iran to save himself would send shockwaves across the Islamic world and severely damage the Shia leadership’s credibility.
Why US Threats Have Failed
At 86, Khamenei appears determined not to leave behind a legacy of retreat. He has repeatedly said Iran is prepared for war and that he is ready for martyrdom rather than flight.
This is also why, despite strong rhetoric, Trump has avoided direct military action. Washington is waiting to see what follows if Khamenei exits the scene, because his departure could also mark the end of Iran’s Islamic Republic. Until the future power structure is clear, the US is likely to keep its distance, fanning the flames from afar but stopping short of direct intervention.
