As Bihar braces for its Assembly elections, a fresh MATRIZE–IANS opinion poll has indicated a clear edge for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), suggesting that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) could emerge as the largest party.
According to the survey, the NDA appears set to secure between 150 and 160 seats in the 243-member Bihar Legislative Assembly, while the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) is projected to win 70 to 80 seats, and other parties may manage 9 to 12 seats.
The opinion poll suggests that 49 per cent of respondents are likely to vote for the NDA, 36 per cent for the Mahagathbandhan, and 15 per cent for other groups.
BJP Likely to Emerge as Largest Party
Within the NDA, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) could emerge as the dominant force, bagging between 80 and 85 seats, followed by the Janata Dal (United) with 60 to 65 seats. Smaller allies such as the Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) may secure 3 to 6 seats, Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) is projected to win 4 to 6 seats, while the Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) could get 1 to 2 seats.
On the other side, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) is expected to be the largest party in the Mahagathbandhan, possibly winning 60 to 65 seats. The Congress may get 7 to 10 seats, CPI-ML between 6 and 9, and both CPI and CPIM could bag up to one seat each. The Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) may also secure 2 to 4 seats, according to the poll findings.
Bihar Election Dates Announced
Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar announced on Monday that the Bihar Assembly elections will be held in two phases—on 6 November and 11 November—with vote counting scheduled for 14 November. He said the entire election process will conclude by 16 November.
“It is mandatory to complete counting of postal ballots before the last two rounds of counting of votes,” Kumar stated at a press conference.
A total of 121 constituencies will vote in the first phase, and 122 constituencies in the second. The term of the current Assembly ends on 22 November.
For the first phase, nominations will close on 17 October, scrutiny will take place on 18 October, and withdrawals can be made until 20 October. For the second phase, the final date for filing nominations is 20 October, scrutiny will be held on 21 October, and withdrawals will be accepted until 23 October.
Bihar has 243 Assembly seats, including two reserved for Scheduled Tribes and 38 for Scheduled Castes, the Chief Election Commissioner added.
Disclaimer: The MATRIZE–IANS survey was carried out between 18 September and 5 October, covering all 243 constituencies of Bihar. In total, 46,862 respondents participated in the exercise. The poll’s margin of error was stated to be ±3 per cent. The survey was not conducted by ABP News, and the findings were solely based on public opinion gathered through direct interactions with voters across the state.
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