- India recorded fifth driest June due to monsoon delay.
- El Niño conditions caused deficit; experts predict cautious rainfall.
- Delayed sowing, water concerns persist; July-August rainfall critical.
India received just 99.5 mm of rainfall in June this year, significantly below the normal 165.3 mm recorded for the month. That marks a 39.8% rainfall deficit, making it the fifth driest June since 1901 and the driest June in more than a decade. The primary reasons were the delayed arrival of the southwest monsoon and a nearly two-week pause in its advance.
Why Was Rainfall So Low?
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the southwest monsoon reached Kerala three days later than usual this year. After its onset, the monsoon lost momentum and remained stalled for nearly two weeks over key agricultural regions in western India. As a result, large parts of the country received little to no rainfall during June.
Meteorologists have attributed the weak monsoon mainly to the El Niño conditions prevailing over the Pacific Ocean. The IMD has forecast below-normal rainfall for the entire June-September monsoon season, estimating precipitation at around 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA).
Historical IMD data shows that only four Junes since 1901 have recorded lower rainfall than this year’s. The months of June 2009 and June 2014 witnessed even weaker rainfall. While June 2026 is not the driest on record, it stands out as the weakest June in recent years.
Does A Weak June Mean A Poor Monsoon Season?
Not necessarily. An analysis of IMD records from 1951 to 2025 shows that June rainfall was below normal in 26 years. Of those:
- Only eight years (31%) ended with an overall weak monsoon.
- In 15 years (58%), rainfall between July and September compensated for June’s shortfall, resulting in a normal monsoon season.
- In three years (12%), seasonal rainfall actually ended above normal.
This means that in nearly 69% of cases, a weak June did not translate into a poor monsoon season.
Two Contrasting Historical Examples
The year 2019 saw June rainfall nearly 31% below normal, but the overall monsoon season ended with around 12% above-normal rainfall.
In contrast, 2009 witnessed the weakest June, with rainfall about 47% below normal, and the entire season ended in drought. Similarly, 2014 recorded a 44% June deficit, followed by a weak monsoon season.
The key question now is whether 2026 will follow the recovery seen in 2019 or the drought pattern of 2009.
Experts note that years such as 2009 and 2014, when both June and the overall monsoon were weak, coincided with El Niño events. Since El Niño is active this year as well, meteorologists remain cautious.
The lack of rainfall also prolonged the summer heat across northern India. In many parts of the northern plains, maximum temperatures remained above 42°C, as the delayed monsoon failed to provide the usual late-June relief.
While temperatures did not break major records, the rainfall deficit intensified heat conditions by delaying the cooling effect normally associated with the monsoon.
Delhi’s Fourth Driest June In 16 Years
According to IMD’s Delhi centre, the national capital received only 32.92 mm of rainfall throughout June, with just four rainy days.
Between 2011 and 2026, only three years recorded lower June rainfall:
- 2019: 11.2 mm
- 2012: 15.5 mm
- 2022: 24.5 mm
As a result, June 2026 ranks as Delhi’s fourth driest June in the past 16 years.
This comes after three comparatively wetter years:
- 2024: 243 mm
- 2025: 107 mm
- 2023: Around 102 mm
Delhi’s average maximum temperature during June stood at 39.1°C, making it the seventh highest in the last 16 years. Six previous years were hotter, including:
- 2012: 41.9°C
- 2024: 41.6°C
- 2014: 41.3°C
The city’s highest temperature this month was 43.5°C on June 9. Temperatures again hovered between 40°C and 42°C from June 26 to June 28 and on June 30, as rainfall failed to arrive. The defining feature of Delhi’s June was therefore the lack of rainfall rather than record-breaking heat.
The rainfall deficit has already begun affecting agriculture. Sowing of key kharif crops such as paddy, maize, cotton, and soybean usually begins after the first widespread rains, but delayed precipitation has slowed planting.
Nearly half of India’s farmland depends on rainfall rather than assured irrigation, making timely monsoon showers crucial.
In Maharashtra, rainfall during the first half of June was about 75% below normal, while reservoirs supplying water to Mumbai were only around 10% full by mid-June, raising concerns over water availability.
What Lies Ahead?
The IMD expects conditions to improve during July as the strengthening Somali Jet is likely to enhance monsoon activity. The department forecasts that the monsoon will advance into Delhi, Punjab, and Haryana during the first week of July.
However, weather experts caution that rainfall could remain below normal across large parts of July. The fate of the 2026 monsoon season will largely depend on whether rainfall during July and August is sufficient to make up for June’s substantial deficit.
