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Budget 2026 Expectations | India Faces Three-Front Threat, Demands More Military Resources

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The global landscape is increasingly marked by aggressive posturing and overt displays of military might from major powers, who seem to disregard the principles of international law. Incidents such as China’s ongoing boundary incursions in Eastern Ladakh, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the devastation in Gaza, and tensions with Iran serve as stark reminders of the challenges facing nations like India. As the competition for advanced weaponry intensifies, India, as the world’s fourth-largest economy, finds itself under pressure to bolster its military capabilities. This necessity is underscored by the need to protect its territorial integrity and strategic interests, which hinges on adequate defence funding outlined in the Union Budget.

Budget Constraints Challenge Border Security

The international strategic community closely monitors India’s defence budget, presented annually in Parliament on February 1. This budget is crucial for addressing the escalating security threats surrounding the nation. However, the armed forces often contend with budget allocations that fall short of expectations, as the government grapples with financial constraints. This situation complicates India’s ability to effectively secure its extensive international borders, which stretch nearly 14,000 km and include critical frontiers with China, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Nepal, and Bhutan.

Budget Falls Short For Modernisation

Despite the government’s allocation of Rs 6.81 lakh crore in the 2025-26 union budget for the maintenance, upgrading, and modernisation of the armed forces, serious gaps persist in meeting actual acquisition and deployment requirements. Given rising tensions with neighbouring countries, it is imperative for India’s armed forces to be equipped with next-generation weapon systems that surpass those of potential adversaries. The budget has earmarked a modest Rs 1,80,000 crore for capital expenditure, but much of this funding is directed towards servicing existing loans and refurbishing imported defence systems, leaving limited resources for new acquisitions. In comparison, India’s defence budget of USD 79 billion pales against China’s USD 248 billion. Though Pakistan spends around USD 9 billion, its economy is much smaller than India’s and would always be backed by China, as seen during Operation Sindoor.

Armed Forces Urgently Need Modernisation

A defence ministry document acknowledges the necessity for the Indian Armed Forces to adapt to the evolving landscape of modern warfare. It emphasises the urgent need for state-of-the-art weaponry and a transformation into a technologically advanced, combat-ready force. This recognition highlights the critical importance of addressing current deficiencies to ensure national security in an increasingly volatile geopolitical environment.

It is essential that budgetary allocations align with the current security landscape, which has unfortunately worsened over the past year. The Indian armed forces are now confronted with increased challenges not only from China and Pakistan but also from a burgeoning threat along the Bangladesh border. This situation raises the likelihood of a simultaneous three-front conflict, necessitating that the Indian military adequately prepares and demonstrates its firepower to deter adversaries from initiating pre-emptive strikes. The Bangladesh front is particularly concerning, as it poses a risk to India’s seven northeastern states, with Pakistan and China potentially orchestrating instigations from behind the scenes.

Operation Sindoor Highlights Three-Front Threat

The recent Operation Sindoor, conducted from May 7 to 10 against Pakistan, served as a brief but impactful engagement, highlighting the need for a more robust long-term strategy encompassing comprehensive firepower and resources. This operation underscored the reality that any future conflict involving India is likely to see Pakistan and China collaborating rather than acting independently. Consequently, the Indian armed forces must enhance their capabilities to match the combined military strength of these two adversaries, ensuring that both offensive and defensive measures are sufficient to counter a coordinated three-front assault. The support China provided to Pakistan during Operation Sindoor further emphasizes the necessity for preparedness in the event of a full-scale war.

Given the current geopolitical landscape, it is imperative for the armed forces to maintain adequate force levels, preparations, and resources. The last defence budget for 2025-26, which saw a 9.53 percent increase to a total of Rs 6.81 lakh crore, has been deemed insufficient to rejuvenate the struggling fighter squadron fleet of the Indian Air Force. Additionally, the Navy has not received commitments to enhance its submarine fleet, which has stagnated at 16 conventional vessels since the early 2000s. Although there are plans for the Navy to expand to 24 submarines by 2030, progress towards this goal remains significantly behind schedule.

The current state of the Indian Air Force is concerning, with the number of operational fighter squadrons plummeting to a mere 29, far below the recommended strength of over 42 established two and a half decades ago. The pressing security situation necessitates an even greater number of squadrons. For the past twenty years, the Air Force has awaited government approval for an additional six squadrons of approximately 120 medium-range multirole fighters. Furthermore, the absence of modern fifth-generation aircraft raises questions about the Air Force’s capability to counter potential threats, particularly in the event of a pre-emptive strike from China.

In an era dominated by missile warfare, it is crucial for India to safeguard its high-value civilian, strategic, and military assets. Currently, the Indian forces are inadequately equipped with missile defence systems, lacking the necessary deployment across major metropolitan areas. With only three S-400 anti-missile defence systems operational and two more still under development, the country faces a significant vulnerability. These costly systems, valued at over a billion dollars, are essential for protecting the nation’s critical infrastructure and installations from potential threats. Nationwide deployment of such anti-missile and anti-drone systems would require thousands of crores of rupees. The defence budget would thus require significantly higher allocations for safeguarding metro cities and high-value installations from missile and drone attacks.

The future of warfare is increasingly defined by unmanned aircraft and mini drones, which are essential for modern military operations. These drones introduce a complex layer to combat, making them more challenging to counteract. However, they also present significant threats, particularly in their ability to disrupt enemy weapon systems. To safeguard critical installations nationwide, a contemporary military must invest in sufficient counter-drone systems, necessitating a defence budget that can accommodate potential drone assaults from multiple fronts.

In light of the evolving security landscape, the Indian Army requires a thorough restructuring to address the new and unexpected challenges it has encountered over the past few years. The situation in Eastern Ladakh has seen an unprecedented mobilization of over fifty thousand Chinese troops, supported by advanced military assets such as fifth-generation fighter jets, ballistic and cruise missiles, and various unmanned systems. Consequently, the Indian armed forces have had to match this deployment, leading to significant financial strain due to the maintenance of a large troop presence and associated weaponry, diverting funds that could have been used for modernization.

Given the likelihood of simultaneous challenges from three fronts, India’s armed forces cannot rely on a defence budget that constitutes only 1.9 percent of its GDP. Notably, a substantial portion—24 percent—of the defence budget is allocated to pensions for retired personnel, while only 26 percent is directed toward new acquisitions and modernization efforts. Security experts advocate for a re-evaluation of budget priorities, suggesting that the defence budget should gradually increase to at least 2.5 percent of GDP to ensure the military is adequately equipped to meet contemporary threats.

(The writer is a senior journalist and strategic affairs analyst)

 

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