With polling for both phases of the Bihar Assembly elections now complete, exit polls suggest a tight race between the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Grand Alliance (Mahagathbandhan) in Bhojpur district. According to the ABP Bihar Expert Exit Poll, the NDA is projected to win four of the seven seats, while the Grand Alliance is likely to secure three.
The survey, based on inputs from senior journalists Kanchan Kumar, Sonu Singh, and Abhinay Prakash, indicates intense contests across constituencies, with several seats expected to be decided by narrow margins.
Predicted Seat Tally (Bhojpur District)
BJP: 3 seats
JD(U): 1 seat
RJD: 2 seats
CPI(ML): 1 seat
Seat-Wise Predictions
Ara Assembly Constituency
- Kanchan Kumar: BJP may win here because the Grand Alliance didn’t put in enough effort before or after the elections. The victory margin could be around 6,000–10,000 votes.
- Sonu Singh: The MLA from CPI(ML) didn’t do much work, causing dissatisfaction among voters.
- Abhinay Prakash: It’s a neck-and-neck contest; hard to predict the winner.
Agiaon Assembly Constituency
- Kanchan Kumar: This is a stronghold of CPI(ML), and RJD also has a strong core vote here, so this seat may go to CPI(ML).
- Sonu Singh: CPI(ML) is winning; it’s their bastion. BJP worked hard, but CPI(ML)’s loyal voters will ensure victory.
- Abhinay Prakash: CPI(ML) is ahead because of its strong cadre base and local dominance.
Shahpur Assembly Constituency
- Kanchan Kumar: Traditionally, there’s been rivalry between the Ojha and Tiwari families, which earlier benefitted the Tiwari family. This time, since the Ojha family is united, BJP stands to gain and the votes aren’t divided.
- Sonu Singh: Because both Ojha factions have united, BJP is likely to win this seat.
- Abhinay Prakash: Same — BJP is benefitting from the unity of the Ojha family.
Barhara Assembly Constituency
- Kanchan Kumar: RJD may win here because vote splitting hurt BJP more this time.
- Sonu Singh: It’s a tough contest — too close to call.
- Abhinay Prakash: Very close fight; BJP might be slightly ahead.
Jagdishpur Assembly Constituency
- Kanchan Kumar: JD(U) has the upper hand and is likely to win. Jagdishpur has a large Kushwaha population, and the JD(U) candidate, Shri Bhagwan Singh Kushwaha, is from that community, consolidating the OBC vote.
- Sonu Singh: JD(U) is winning because Nitish Kumar’s campaign and the ₹10,000 benefit for women have worked in their favor.
- Abhinay Prakash: JD(U) is ahead because Shri Bhagwan Singh Kushwaha’s personal influence and NDA’s consolidated votes are helping.
Tarari Assembly Constituency
- Kanchan Kumar: BJP could win here; Sunil Pandey has a strong personal following and vote base (around 40,000 votes even as an independent). This, combined with full party support, benefits BJP.
- Sonu Singh: The “9 months vs 9 years” comparison in development — Vishal Prashant’s industrial hub vision — seems to be working in BJP’s favor.
- Abhinay Prakash: BJP is ahead as people compare 9 years of work with 9 months of promises.
Sandesh Assembly Constituency
- Kanchan Kumar: Very tight competition. While RJD has a strong vote base, the deciding factors are backward and Dalit votes. These, which earlier went to Arun Yadav, now appear to be shifting to Radhacharan Seth of JD(U), due to NDA’s micro-level caste-based strategy.
- Sonu Singh: Neck-and-neck fight between NDA and RJD — hard to say who will win.
- Abhinay Prakash: RJD seems ahead due to its strong cadre and large Yadav vote base.
