US President Donald Trump says the strikes on Iran were meant to eliminate a threat, but how he expects the conflict to end remains unclear.
After the first round of strikes on Saturday killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Trump initially called on Iranians to rise up against their government. Soon after, however, he said the war launched alongside Israel was not aimed at regime change.
The military operation launched by Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been named “Epic Fury” by the Pentagon. Trump has warned that the conflict could last four weeks or more and has threatened further devastating strikes against Iran, a country of around 90 million people where hundreds have already been reported killed.
Facing criticism over the lack of a clear strategy, Trump and his top aides on Monday outlined four main objectives for the war, all focused on military goals. These include destroying Iran’s navy and military capabilities, ending Tehran’s support for regional militant groups, and preventing the country from developing a nuclear weapon.
Matthew Kroenig, vice president at the Atlantic Council, said Trump may have already achieved several of his goals, including the killing of a leader long seen as an adversary of the United States. He added that the administration appears keen to avoid a prolonged conflict like the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
“I think they could go home almost at any time and declare this a success,” Kroenig said. “I think the strategy is more about what they want to avoid than about exactly what they want to achieve.”
Negar Mortazavi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, said Iran might resist any quick ceasefire, believing it needs to respond strongly to deter future attacks.
“The end goal for them is to make sure that this hurts enough and the pain is felt enough for the US, Israel and also the neighbors,” she said.
For Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, weakening Iran’s military capabilities appears to be a central objective. Israel has previously carried out repeated strikes in Syria to weaken its long-time adversaries.
Netanyahu also launched a major offensive in Gaza following the October 7, 2023 attack by Hamas, a group backed by Iran’s leadership.
In contrast to past US wars in Afghanistan and Iraq — which were often framed as efforts to promote democracy — US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the current conflict with Iran was “no democracy-building exercise” and would involve “no stupid rules of engagement.”
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington would “love” to see the Iranian people overthrow their government, but stressed that regime change was not the official objective of the war.
Some analysts say the real aim may be to weaken Iran’s government from within. Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute, described Trump’s approach as seeking “not regime change, it’s regime implosion.”
“The hope is that they will degrade Iran’s capabilities or the repressive capacities of the state as much as possible,” he said.
Parsi added that from Israel’s perspective, further weakening Iran — even to the point of state collapse — would reduce Tehran’s influence in the region.
Meanwhile, Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran’s former pro-Western shah who was overthrown in the 1979 Islamic Revolution, has expressed confidence that the clerical leadership could eventually fall and has called on Iranians to rise up when the moment is right.
Max Boot, a military historian at the Council on Foreign Relations, said Trump’s goals appear deliberately ambiguous, particularly on whether the war is meant to change Iran’s government or simply its behaviour.
“I think he’s basically keeping it ambiguous so that whatever happens, he can claim it was a huge victory,” Boot said.
“He will claim vindication no matter what happens.”
