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Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is facing critical medical challenges after surviving a bomb attack, raising questions over his ability to exercise full control as the country navigates war and fragile ceasefire talks.According to the New York Times report, Khamenei has undergone surgery on his hand, suffered severe facial burns and is awaiting a prosthetic leg following injuries sustained in the strike.While he remains mentally capable of making decisions, his physical condition has significantly limited his direct engagement.
Limited control, IRGC influence grows
Four officials familiar with the matter cited by The New York Times said that Khamenei has had minimal contact with Iranian generals during ongoing negotiations. Analysts suggest this has created a power vacuum increasingly filled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).“Mojtaba is not yet in full command or control,” Sanam Vakil of Chatham House told NYT, adding that decisions are often presented to him as “fait accompli.”Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group echoed this view, stating, “Mojtaba is not supreme; he might be leader in name, but he is not supreme the way his father was… Mojtaba is subservient to the Revolutionary Guards,” as quoted by the NYT.
Governance shifts amid war pressures
According to the NYT, the IRGC played a decisive role in halting planned talks with the United States in Islamabad, overriding Iran’s civilian leadership, including President Masoud Pezeshkian and foreign minister Abbas Araghchi.Khamenei, who succeeded his father Ali Khamenei after his death in US-Israeli strikes, has not made any public appearances or verbal statements since assuming office, reportedly to avoid appearing weak.Instead, communication with him is being conducted through sealed, hand-delivered letters.
‘Board-style’ leadership emerges
Describing the evolving power structure, former adviser Abdolreza Davari told NYT, “Mojtaba is managing the country as though he is the director of the board… The generals are the board members.”This shift marks a departure from the previous centralised authority under his father, with military commanders now playing a more dominant role in decision-making.The developments come as an indefinite ceasefire remains in place between Iran and the United States, with both sides assessing pathways to resume negotiations and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.However, with internal power dynamics in flux and the IRGC asserting greater control, prospects for diplomacy remain uncertain.
