China is pressing ahead with a massive hydropower project on the Yarlung Tsangpo river in Tibet, a move that experts and Indian officials warn could seriously endanger water security, ecology and livelihoods downstream in India.As the river enters India as the Brahmaputra, any large-scale intervention upstream is seen as a direct risk to millions who depend on its natural flow. The proposed $168bn hydropower system will harness a steep 2,000 metre drop in altitude through an intricate network of dams, reservoirs, tunnels and underground power stations.
For India, the concern is not just environmental but existential. Arunachal Pradesh chief minister Pema Khandu has warned that the project could be used as a “water bomb”, with China potentially controlling the timing and volume of water released into the Brahmaputra. Sudden discharges could trigger floods, while withholding water could dry out large stretches of the river during critical periods.Although much of the Brahmaputra’s water comes from monsoon rains and tributaries within India, experts say upstream manipulation can still disturb the river’s natural rhythm. Even limited changes could affect fertile floodplains, fisheries and groundwater recharge across Assam and Arunachal Pradesh, regions already vulnerable to climate stress. China has dismissed these concerns, as the Chinese foreign ministry has insisted that downstream countries will not be adversely affected. However, scepticism remains strong in India, partly shaped by China’s track record on other transboundary rivers.The technical scale of the project has also heightened fears. Brian Eyler, director of the Energy, Water and Sustainability Program at the Stimson Center in Washington, has described it as the most sophisticated hydropower system ever attempted, but also one of the riskiest.Any failure or miscalculation in such a seismically sensitive and ecologically fragile region could have cascading consequences downstream.Beijing’s management of the Mekong River has drawn repeated criticism from downstream nations, which accuse Chinese dam operators of worsening droughts by regulating water flow to suit power generation needs. While China denies these allegations, they have reinforced Indian fears about a similar approach on the Brahmaputra.The upstream developments have prompted India’s largest state-run hydropower company to push ahead with its own 11,200-megawatt project on the Brahmaputra, a move driven partly by fears of losing strategic and water security ground.Experts warn that competing mega projects on the same river system could worsen risks for both countries. Without cooperation and transparency, analysts caution, a dam-building race between India and China could undermine regional stability and place the future of the Brahmaputra and the millions who rely on it in jeopardy.
