NEW DELHI: Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is set to make a massive comeback in Kerala, according to trends. The allaince is leading on 77 seats, according to the Election Commission’s website at the time of writing this article. If the trends contunue, it is comfortably past the majority mark of 71 in the 140-assembly state.The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) was ahead in just two constituencies.UDF’s core alliance parties include Congress, Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), Kerala Congress (KEC) and Revolutionary Marxist Party of India (RMPOI).
Here are five reasons for UDF’s massive comeback:
Anti-incumbency
The UDF’s comeback narrative rested heavily on Left’s anti-incumbency sentiment.
Election Results 2026
Concerns over governance, economic stress, and allegations of political arrogance increasingly fed into a wider perception that the Left had become weighed down by the burdens of long incumbency.Anti-incumbency has historically played a decisive role in Kerala politics, and past election trends explain why the LDF faces a difficult road ahead in 2026. Kerala’s electorate has often shown a preference for change, with governments struggling to retain power beyond a term or two. The pattern is evident in the numbers. After being reduced to 41 seats in 2001 against the UDF’s 100, the LDF returned strongly with 102 seats in 2006 after a term in opposition. But in 2011, its tally again fell sharply to 70. These swings reflect Kerala’s entrenched anti-incumbency cycle, where prolonged rule frequently leads to voter fatigue. For the LDF, the challenge is sharper this time because it has governed continuously since 2016 and is now seeking a rare third consecutive term after winning 94 seats in 2021. History suggests that even strong governments struggle to escape the backlash that often accompanies long incumbencies in Kerala.Addressing mediapersons at the party headquarters here, KPCC president Sunny Joseph said the emerging verdict was a clear rejection of the CPM-led LDF government’s “anti-people policies”.”The counting of votes is still progressing. The present trend indicates that the people of the state are giving the UDF a historic victory,” he said.”It is a clear verdict against the LDF government’s anti-people policies,” he added.
Ideological shift of the Left government
The UDF’s comeback in Kerala was shaped not just by anti-incumbency, but by a growing perception that the Left had drifted from its traditional ideological position after a decade in power. The Congress-led alliance successfully projected the LDF as politically inconsistent, accusing it of adopting the very language and strategies it once criticised. This became particularly visible during the controversy over Jamaat-e-Islaami, when CPM leaders attacked the UDF over alleged links with the organisation using rhetoric that opponents described as openly communal. AK Balan’s remarks invoking the Marad riots, and chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan’s initial support for them, allowed the Congress to argue that the Left was increasingly mirroring the politics of polarisation it historically opposed.At the same time, the LDF’s outreach to religious and community groups reinforced the perception of ideological recalibration. The government’s active support for the Global Ayyappa Sangamam, despite the CPM’s earlier hardline position during the Sabarimala controversy, was portrayed by the opposition as an attempt at majority appeasement. The Left’s simultaneous efforts to maintain ties with influential Muslim bodies such as Samastha further strengthened the UDF’s claim that the CPM was pursuing a carefully balanced identity politics rather than its old class-based politics. For sections of voters, this shift blurred the ideological distinction that once separated the Left from its rivals.The Vizhinjam port project became another symbol of this transformation. The CPM, which had once opposed the Adani-backed port project while in opposition, later celebrated it as a landmark achievement in government and strongly defended it despite sustained protests by fisherfolk and environmental groups. The contrast between the party’s earlier anti-corporate positioning and its later embrace of Kerala’s biggest private investment gave the UDF fresh ammunition. Together, these shifts helped the Congress-led alliance build a narrative that the Left was no longer the force it once claimed to be, enabling the UDF to channel voter fatigue and present itself as the more credible political alternative.
Consolidation of Christian vote
Central Kerala — particularly seats such as Thrissur, Aranmula, Kunnathunad, Pathanamthitta and Kottayam — is once again emerging as the key battleground of the 2026 elections. With Congress candidates leading across several of these constituencies, as per current trends, the consolidation of Christian votes behind the UDF appears to be a major reason for the alliance’s resurgence.While the LDF attempted to expand its support among Christians through welfare measures and alliances with influential community groups, sections of the community grew uncomfortable with what they saw as the Left’s ideological shift and political balancing. Debates around minority politics, outreach to different religious groups, and perceptions of inconsistency weakened the LDF’s appeal among some traditional minority voters.At the same time, Christian voters are increasingly making issue-based choices centred on agrarian distress, rubber prices, human-wildlife conflict and minority welfare. The UDF appears to have benefited from this shift, regaining support in central Kerala by projecting itself as the more dependable political representative of minority interests.
Reduction of support for LDF in its own battleground
LDF candidates are trailing in most of their communist strongholds in Kannur district, as per current EC trends. CM Pinarayi Vijayan himself is leading by a slight margin in Dharmadam. Interestingly, in Peravoor, another Left stronghold, Congress candidate Sunny Joseph is ahead of former state health minister KK Shailaja Teacher, the woman who was appreciated for her handling of Covid crisis in the state.Another communist stronghold Kannur is witnessing Congress candidate TO Mohanan leading, as per EC trends.
Rahul, Priyanka’s personal appeal
Another reason for UDF’s comeback in the state could be Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi’s personal connect with the people, especially after the Wayanad landslide. Lok Sabha MP from the disaster-hit constituency raised the issue of compensation in the Lower House several times, earning trust of the people.Additionally, the Congress campaign, spearheaded nationally by senior leader Rahul Gandhi, placed strong emphasis on welfare commitments. A key part of this strategy was targeted outreach to women voters, including promises of financial assistance and enhanced social security measures, which appears to have found traction in the early electoral trends. Go to Source
