Raj and Uddhav Thackeray
The January 15 Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections will be an acid test for the Shiv Sena (UBT), marking its third electoral battle since the dramatic split of June 2022. Having lost control of the civic body it governed for 25 consecutive years as the undivided Shiv Sena, it is now seeking to reclaim Mumbai’s powerful municipal corporation, which last went to the polls in February 2017.
The task, however, is far from straightforward for the Uddhav Thackeray-led Sena (UBT). In a bid to consolidate the Marathi vote, the former Maharashtra chief minister has formed an alliance with his once-estranged cousin Raj Thackeray. Raj had broken away from the Shiv Sena in November 2005 to form the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) in March 2006.Despite this reunion, Sena (UBT) confronts multiple hurdles in its effort to regain control of the Maharashtra capital’s municipal authority — India’s richest civic corporation and one of the wealthiest in Asia.BMC: Not just another municipal corporationThe civic body, formally known as the Municipal Corporation of Greater Mumbai (MCGM), was established in 1873. It was only in 1948 — the year following India’s independence — that the BMC held its first elections based on adult franchise.
History of BMC
The corporation, with an annual budget exceeding those of several small states, introduced 140 single-member constituencies in 1963, followed by elections in 1968. The number was later increased to 170 (in 1982) and then 221 (in 1991). The current strength of the corporation — 227 seats — was fixed in 2002. The corporation’s long history, its status as the civic body of the country’s largest metropolis — also the nation’s financial and entertainment capital — and its close links with the state’s politics mean that the BMC polls carry greater significance than many state assembly elections and attract more attention than those for any other municipal corporation.Challenges for Shiv Sena (UBT)A significantly weakened Shiv Sena (UBT) now faces the following challenges in its bid to wrest back control of the BMC.Largest, but never powerful enough: The BMC has often been referred to as a “Sena-controlled” body. Yet, this description does not tell the full story – the party has never won an outright majority on its own and has always governed by forming alliances. It first won the BMC in 1985, securing 74 out of 170 seats (140 contested). Its best performance to date came in 1997, when it won 103 of the total 221 seats. After that, its tally slipped below 100, eventually settling at 84 in 2017, proof of its limitations. BJP’s rise: Initially the junior partner in its alliance with the Sena, the BJP finally became the “big brother” in the 2014 Maharashtra assembly elections and later, the state’s largest party. Its BMC tally, which had long hovered in the 20s and 30s since its formation in 1980, surged dramatically to 82 in 2017—just two short of its then-ally. It now aims to take control of the corporation for the first time, a task that, while not straightforward, appears less challenging than it once did.Decline in strength: The Sena split dealt a double blow to Uddhav Thackeray. Not only did it bring down his MVA government and saw him lose the status of the “real” Shiv Sena, but the real damage came in Shinde taking away a large portion of the original Shiv Sena’s core strength—its ground cadre—and its traditional vote base. In the 2019 assembly polls, the united Shiv Sena had won around 16% of the vote. Five years later, the two factions together secured what would have been over 20% vote as a joint entity: 12% for the Shinde group and 10% for Uddhav.The score currently stands at 1-1: the Uddhav faction emerged ahead in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, while the Shinde group led in the state elections just a few months later.A ‘weak’ ally: Often labelled a “firebrand” leader, Raj Thackeray has struggled to convert rhetoric into lasting electoral gains for the MNS. The party, known primarily for its anti-migrant plank, peaked early—winning 13 seats in the 2009 Maharashtra assembly elections, including six in Mumbai. Its only other notable success came in the 2012 BMC polls, where it secured 27 seats, a performance it has been unable to replicate since. Beyond these brief highs, the MNS has struggled to remain electorally relevant as Maharashtra’s politics consolidated around bigger players.Where is ‘Marathi Manoos’? The proportion of Marathi-speaking residents in Mumbai is lower than might be expected—not surprising for a cosmopolitan city. The 2011 Census showed that in the capital of a Marathi-speaking state, only 35% of the 12.5 million residents reported it as their mother tongue, followed by Hindi at 25% (and naturally, not all Marathi-speakers in the city vote for either party). Further, the anti-migrant image of both Sena (UBT) and MNS limits their reach among the non-Marathi communities.The Muslim vote: Historically, Muslims had largely avoided voting for the Shiv Sena because of its Hindutva identity. That changed in 2019 with the formation of the MVA. Many in the community voted for the Sena (UBT) also to keep the BJP out—a pattern seen with anti-BJP parties in other parts of India. Uddhav’s new “moderate” image also played a big role in drawing Muslims votes. According to a CSDS study, the MVA secured 55% of the Muslim vote in the 2024 state elections, while the BJP-led Mahayuti received 22% of the community’s support.With Sena (UBT) now aligned with the MNS, another Hindutva party, it remains to be seen whether Muslim voters will continue to back Uddhav Thackeray. The presence of other parties for whom the community has traditionally voted could also lead to a fragmentation of the vote.As per the 2011 Census, Muslims constituted 21% of the city’s population.Performance in BMC: Civic issues are expected to play a key role in the BMC elections, with annual monsoon waterlogging remaining one of Mumbai’s most persistent problems. Despite repeated promises and heavy spending on drainage projects, large parts of the city continue to be paralysed every year. Given the Shiv Sena’s long dominance of the BMC, this issue is closely linked to its civic governance record, making it a crucial test for Sena (UBT) as it seeks to reclaim control of the corporation.Is there a silver lining?It is often said in politics that 1 + 1 equals 11, not two. With little to lose and much to gain, a reunion of the Thackerays could play to their advantage. While the sympathy factor did not help Uddhav Thackeray in the 2024 state polls, a renewed alliance with his cousin could resonate strongly with Marathi pride and identity.The numbers also offer encouraging signs for the Sena (UBT). Of its 20 seats in the Maharashtra assembly, Mumbai alone accounts for half. In six of these constituencies, UBT candidates even defeated nominees from the Shinde faction, suggesting that the party’s core base in the metropolis has not completely eroded.In their joint manifesto, titled “Vachan Nama, Shabd Thackerencha” (promissory note of the Thackerays), the Shiv Sena (UBT)–MNS alliance has promised that Mumbai’s land would be used only for housing Mumbaikars. It has also announced that the BMC would have its own housing authority, 100 units of free power for residential use through the Brihanmumbai Electricity Supply and Transport (BEST) Undertaking, Rs 1,500 financial assistance for house helps and women from the Koli community, women’s restrooms on major roads, and a property tax waiver for houses up to 700 sq ft, among other civic measures.Where is Sena (UBT) headed?The long-delayed BMC polls will test Sena (UBT)’s relevance in Mumbai, the city of its birth and its home since then. After years of ups and downs, the results will show whether the Thackeray faction can rebuild its base and reclaim influence in the city. A win would provide a much-needed boost, while a defeat would leave the party grappling with even more questions about its future. Go to Source