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From red to green to saffron? BJP eyes power shift in Bengal as Mamata defends her turf

From red to green to saffron? BJP eyes power shift in Bengal as Mamata defends her turf

NEW DELHI: The Banglar ‘manush’ have traditionally displayed a deep-rooted political loyalty, often rallying decisively behind a single political force and allowing it to govern for extended periods. Over nearly eight decades since independence, West Bengal’s political journey has not merely been a sequence of governments changing hands, but a story shaped in clear, dominant eras, each marked by ideological conviction and prolonged mandates.The 2026 assembly elections, however, have injected a new intensity into this legacy. What is unfolding is not just another electoral contest, but a high-stakes, high-voltage battle between long-incumbent chief minister Mamata Banerjee and a determined, aggressively expanding Bharatiya Janata Party brigade.

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Didi’s 15-year rule now faces its most formidable challenge yet. The BJP has mounted a relentless, ground-up campaign, deploying its top leadership and sharpening its attacks on the Trinamool Congress. The saffron party’s high command has gone so far as to assert that “the sun has set for TMC in Bengal.”But to understand the weight of BJP’s claim, the story of how Bengal’s political journey has evolved must be told.

Congress era: Foundations of power and post-Partition rebuilding

Like most states in newly independent India, Bengal’s early political leadership was shaped by the Congress. Bidhan Chandra Roy, one of the most important icons in the state’s history, became its first chief minister at a time when Bengal was reeling from the devastating effects of Partition in 1947.Bidhan Chandra’s leadership extended beyond routine governance. He played a crucial role in stabilising a fractured society and laid the foundations for modern Bengal’s administrative and infrastructural framework. Among his lasting contributions was the development of Salt Lake city, a planned township that symbolised forward-looking urbanisation.Kolkata, then Calcutta – was not just the state capital but also a political nerve centre for the Congress party. The city hosted several landmark sessions of the party across decades, becoming a stage for defining moments in India’s freedom struggle and political evolution. From the first singing of Vande Mataram to the articulation of Swaraj, Bengal remained at the heart of Congress.However, the Congress’s dominance gradually began to erode. Internal fractures, shifting political aspirations, and national-level upheavals weakened its grip. The emergence of the Bangla Congress marked the first serious rupture in its monopoly, introducing coalition politics and opening the door for alternative ideologies.The deaths of towering national leaders like Jawaharlal Nehru and Lal Bahadur Shastri further destabilised the party’s structure and also its influence. The 1967 elections, often described as a “political earthquake,” dealt a decisive blow to Congress supremacy in Bengal.

The red era: Rise and consolidation of Left dominance

Even as Indira Gandhi strengthened her political authority at the national level, especially after the 1971 electoral victory and the India-Pakistan war, Bengal was moving in a different direction.The Congress continued to lose ground in the state, and its final chief minister to the date, Siddhartha Shankar Ray, came to represent the end of an era. The political vacuum was swiftly filled by the Left Front, which rose to power in 1977 on the back of strong grassroots mobilisation and ideological clarity.At the centre of this transformation was Jyoti Basu, a towering Marxist leader who would go on to become one of India’s longest-serving chief ministers. Under his leadership, Bengal witnessed a profound restructuring of its rural and administrative systems.Key initiatives such as Operation Barga redefined land relations by strengthening the rights of sharecroppers, while the institutionalisation of the Panchayati Raj system in 1978 decentralised governance and empowered local bodies. These reforms created a durable political base for the Left.The Left Front governed Bengal uninterrupted from 1977 to 2011, one of the longest continuous tenures for any democratically elected communist government in the world. By 2000, Basu stepped down due to health reasons, passing the baton to comrade Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee. While Bhattacharjee attempted to recalibrate the Left’s image with a focus on industrialisation, the ground realities had begun to shift. Discontent was brewing, and a new political force under Mamata Banerjee was gathering momentum.

The Mamata moment: Disruption and dominance

Mamata emerged as new strong leader in state.Emerging as a fierce and relentless challenger, Mamata dismantled the Left’s decades-long dominance in the 2011 assembly elections. Leading the Trinamool Congress, she secured a sweeping mandate of 184 seats and became Bengal’s first woman chief minister.

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Her victory marked not just a change in government, but a complete political reset. The Congress and the Left,once the principal forces in the state, were pushed to the margins.

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The BJP, despite having governed at the Centre earlier under Atal Bihari Vajpayee for nearly 6 years, remained an insignificant player in Bengal politics at the time.Mamata strengthened her grip further in 2016, returning to power with an even bigger mandate, crossing the 200-seat mark. At this stage, her dominance appeared unchallenged, with opposition forces fragmented and struggling to regain relevance.Her governance style, welfare outreach, and strong personal connect with voters ensured that the Trinamool Congress remained the central pole of Bengal politics.

BJP’s surge: From fringe to formidable force

The political equilibrium began to shift dramatically in 2021.The BJP launched an unprecedented campaign in Bengal, led by its stars Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union home minister Amit Shah, also considered as “Chanakya” for the saffron party. The scale, intensity, and resources deployed marked a new phase in the state’s electoral politics.While Didi retained power, the BJPs performance signalled a major breakthrough. Winning 77 seats in the 294-member Assembly, the party emerged as the principal opposition, leapfrogging boththe Congress and the Left.

West Bengal assembly elections 2021 results

The BJP’s strong emergence, in fact, pushed Congress and Left to the farthest margins of insignificance.This rise was significant not just numerically, but symbolically. A party that once struggled to make electoral inroads in Bengal had now positioned itself as the primary challenger to the ruling establishment under TMC supremo Mamata.

2026 showdown: Continuity or change?

Now, as Bengal records one of its highest-ever voter turnouts and witnesses intense, high-decibel campaigning, the stakes have never been higher.Is the state signalling a shift? Has “the sun has set for TMC in Bengal,” as the BJP leadership claims?Also the traditional notion of high voter-turnout interpreted as an undercurrent against the incumbent.The contest has increasingly taken on a bipolar character, squeezing out other political players and turning the election into a direct face-off between the Trinamool Congress and the BJP.The BJP, buoyed by its 2021 gains, has upped the ante, fielding heavyweight candidates even in traditional TMC bastions like Bhowanipore and other constituencies in southern Bengal. As a clear messaging – no seat is being conceded without a fight.Several pollsters in their exit poll predictions have also given an edge to BJP over Mamata’s TMC. This might be the first signal of discomfort for Didi. The poll of polls predicted that TMC would no longer be single strong and leading force, as BJP taking over it. In 2021, Mamata faced her former aide and a BJP leader Suvendu Adhikari in Nandigram and suffered a rare personal defeat, even as she retained power across the state.

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This time, the dynamics appear more complex, with both sides locked in a strong contest from Bhowanipore.The elections have also seen a massive administrative exercise, including the special intensive revision process, criticised by Mamata but defended by the Election Commission, adding another layer of political tension.Will it continue its tradition of backing one dominant force for the long haul, or will it script a new chapter by embracing change?The answer lies with the Banglar ‘manush’. Go to Source

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