NEW DELHI: The Congress is finally in action mode in Tamil Nadu. After a weekend brainstorming with party chief Mallikarjun Kharge and Rahul Gandhi in the national capital, the Tamil Nadu Congress Committee has convened a crucial Executive Committee meeting tomorrow to focus on preparations for the upcoming 2026 Tamil Nadu assembly elections. But the important question is: Has the Congress finalised its direction in the state? Will the grand-old party continue with its long-term ally the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), which has refused to share power if the alliance wins the upcoming assembly elections? Or will the Congress explore the possibility of a new coalition in the state by joining hands with actor-politician Vijay’s TVK?The Congress-DMK alliance in Tamil Nadu faces one of its toughest challenges from within. According to reports, the Congress leadership has asked the state unit leaders to maintain alliance discipline and avoid confrontational political posturing against the long-standing and “trusted” ally. The directive on the importance of unity comes amid some very strong remarks made by a section of the state Congress after DMK rejected the idea of a coalition government.Congress MP Manickam Tagore was the first to float the idea of power sharing when he said that time had come to discuss sharing of power in the state with DMK. When the DMK said “no” to this, the Congress leader took potshots at the regional ally and also accused it of intolerance towards coalition partners.“We do not say ‘bye-bye’ to allies after elections,” Manickam Tagore said in a hard-hitting social media post. The Congress leader cited the example of United Democratic Front (UDF), the Congress-led coalition in Kerala, to school the DMK on “coalition dharma.” In a series of Pongal messages, Tagore contrasted what he described as the DMK’s “centralised mindset” with the inclusive and consultative UDF model practised in Kerala. “No betrayal after elections, no breaking alliances after counting votes. That is the UDF difference,” he said, describing it as “coalition dharma in action”.Tagore said Kerala UDF offers a hopeful template for coalition politics, where the Congress leads without monopolising authority. Power, he stressed, is shared rather than concentrated.The DMK is yet to react to this raised pitch by the Congress, which has till now played second fiddle to its regional ally. Even in 2006 when the DMK had fallen short of majority winning 96 seats, the Congress with 34 elected members supported DMK’s minority government without joining it. The Congress’s electoral fortunes in Tamil Nadu have been intertwined with the DMK since the two parties came together. Whenever the DMK has done well, the Congress has also gained, and vice versa. The grand-old party has seen a steady decline in its vote share in the state from 9.3% in 2011 to 4.27% in the 2021 assembly elections. So, has the time come for the Congress to rethink its Tamil Nadu strategy? Here are the pros and cons of the grand-old party considering a political realignment in the state.PROS
- The Congress has been on the winning side in Tamil Nadu several times, but has not been a part of the DMK government. If the Congress dumps DMK and manages to join a winning combination, it may get a chance to be part of the state government.
- The DMK has often been accused of being anti-Hindu and anti-north – with some of its leaders making remarks that often run into controversy. While it helps the DMK in Tamil Nadu, the Congress, being a national ally, is left facing the consequences of these remarks in other parts, where it has high electoral stakes.
- For years, Congress was the only national party with a reasonable presence in Tamil Nadu. However, that is changing fast. The BJP is working aggressively to gain ground in the state. The Congress needs to take steps to prevent itself from being swept out of the state politics by the BJP as has happened in several other states.
- The DMK which is fighting for a second consecutive term could face anti-incumbency. Several DMK leaders also face corruption charges. These will also impact the Congress adversely even though it is not part of the government and has no say in matters of policy or governance.
- The emergence of Vijay’s TVK gives the Congress an option to explore political realignment in the state. The TVK, which is leaving no stone unturned for a debut victory, has already called the Congress a “natural ally.” Actor Vijay’s popularity and his massive rallies have already forced the existing players to take note of his political march.
CONS
- The Congress alliance with the DMK is stable and time-tested. Congress has gained politically from this alliance winning seats in both assembly and Lok Sabha elections. The two parties have worked together for a long time ironing out differences. If Congress dumps the alliance, it may turn out to be a costly gamble.
- The DMK has been a crucial and loyal India-bloc ally for the Congress. With the state sending 39 members to Lok Sabha, Congress has gained from the DMK’s numbers in its national politics. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the DMK won 22 seats.
- The Congress lacks the kind of cadre support and organisational strength needed to pursue independent politics in Tamil Nadu. Its vote share in the state has been on the decline in assembly elections.
- Vijay the actor may be very popular, but Vijay the politician remains an untested novice. Huge crowds in rallies may not translate into votes when Tamil Nadu goes to polls to elect a new assembly in some months. If Vijay fails, like Prashant Kishor did in Bihar, Congress will end up losing a stable long-term ally without any political gains. Since AIADMK is already tied up with the BJP, the Congress may be pushed to oblivion.
For the Congress leadership, any decision on DMK alliance in Tamil Nadu will be tricky. While on the one hand, it will be tempted to experiment with Vijay’s TVK for greater political gains, on the other, it would be wary of its decision turning into a costly gamble.
