NEW DELHI: Does Aam Aadmi Party not want Congress to win in Kerala assembly polls?INDIA bloc’s inability to form a unified front ahead of the Kerala assembly polls was exposed spectacularly after Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) released successive lists of candidates, signalling its intent to fight a full-scale battle across all 140 seats in Kerala.The southern state, recently rechristened Keralam in a nod to its cultural and linguistic heritage, now stands as the latest battleground where AAP’s ambitions clash head-on with Congress.Kerala’s electoral rhythm has long resisted continuity, with voters mostly denying incumbents a second straight term. That pattern places Congress, the principal opposition, in a seemingly favourable position in the race for power in Thiruvananthapuram.Yet, AAP’s assertive entry adds a twist. Is Kejriwal’s party merely expanding its footprint, or subtly complicating Congress’s path to power? With limited organisational depth in the Malayalam-speaking state, AAP may not hold significant relevance, but with Arvind Kejriwal and his team emerging from the shadow of the Delhi liquor case, their presence could still, if only marginally, alter the political equation in Kerala. The ruling Left, also part of the broader opposition fold, remains Congress’s primary rival, while the BJP trails as a distant third. In this triangular contest, AAP may not significantly dent the Left or the BJP, but it could influence the margins where elections are often decided, by chipping away at Congress’s vote share just enough to alter the final verdict.Is Delhi’s revenge being served in Kerala?2025 began with the startling defeat of the Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi. Earlier, the reluctant allies, AAP and Congress had decided to contest separately, with Congress, having little to lose, launching a belligerent campaign against the ruling Arvind Kejriwal-led dispensation.The grand old party also found an opening as the Kejriwal cabinet came under the scanner in the Delhi liquor policy case, with agencies like the CBI and ED probing the matter. Several senior AAP leaders, including Kejriwal and his deputy Manish Sisodia, faced legal trouble, leading to a phase where the government functioned under the chief ministership of party colleague and loyalist Atishi.While AAP’s defeat ultimately came at the hands of the BJP, Congress also played a significant, if indirect, role in preventing its INDIA bloc ally from securing a fourth consecutive term.The “vote-cutting” factor proved crucial in several constituencies, including New Delhi, where Sandeep Dikshit, son of former chief minister Sheila Dikshit, was fielded against Kejriwal. Though he finished a distant third, the votes he secured contributed to Kejriwal’s defeat and helped the BJP’s Parvesh Verma emerge as a “giant killer.”Hypothetically, had those votes gone to Kejriwal, the outcome might have been different. The AAP’s tally fell sharply from 62 to 22 seats, while Congress once again failed to open its account.The herculean efforts that brought AAP and Congress into an arranged marriage to counter the strong force of the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, despite years of political bitterness, unravelled once again in the 2025 assembly polls, reflecting a familiar pattern of rivalry.AAP, which rose from the India Against Corruption movement led by Anna Hazare, had directly challenged the government led by Sheila Dikshit and went on to establish a dominant hold over Delhi, reducing Congress from a ruling force to total insignificance.The Congress, once under Sheila Dikshit’s strong leadership for 15 years, has failed to win a single seat in the last two assembly elections (2020 and 2025), and has also drawn blanks in three consecutive Lok Sabha polls (2014, 2019, and 2024).Just as Congress dented AAP’s prospects in the Delhi assembly, AAP may now impact Congress’s chances in states like Kerala, as it seeks to maintain its relevance within the national opposition space.Coalition to confrontationLok Sabha allies turned Assembly rivals, the battle between the estranged partners was anything but graceful.At one rally, Arvind Kejriwal did not hold back: “The problem with Congress is its sense of entitlement. They think they have a divine right to lead the opposition just because of their past, even when they have zero presence on the ground. They are not fighting the BJP; they are fighting regional parties that actually defeat the BJP. In Delhi, Congress is nothing but a ‘vote-cutter’ meant to help the BJP.”Congress, in turn, capitalised on the troubles surrounding the Delhi excise policy case, hitting AAP where it hurt the most.Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra led rallies across Delhi, branding Kejriwal and other AAP leaders as “corrupt.” In one such rally, Rahul Gandhi remarked: “Kejriwal ji keeps lying. The way Narendra Modi lies, Kejriwal lies too. There isn’t much difference between them. But I will tell you one thing—Kejriwal is probably more cunning and sophisticated than even the Prime Minister in how he misleads people.”Weeks later, when a Delhi court discharged Kejriwal and his colleagues in the liquor policy case, Congress alleged it was part of a larger BJP strategy of “Congress-mukt Bharat.”Congress spokesperson Pawan Khera attacked the BJP, calling it an “Icchadhari naag” (shape-shifting serpent), and accused it of using central agencies as political tools.Kejriwal retaliated sharply, questioning Congress’s claims and targeting its leadership: “Kejriwal went to jail. Did Robert Vadra go to jail? Sanjay Singh went to jail. Did Rahul Gandhi go to jail? Did Sonia Gandhi go to jail? What is Congress saying? Does it have no shame?”To diminish Congress’s footprint?Congress, the grand old party with roots in the independence movement, has been grappling with vulnerability for over a decade.Beyond Delhi, it has steadily lost ground across multiple states, allowing the BJP to expand its dominance in national politics. This decline has also opened space for other players to challenge its position within the opposition.Among states like West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, and Kerala which are going to polls, Kerala appears to be the one where Congress still has a realistic chance of returning to power by dislodging the Left. That makes it a crucial battleground.In such a scenario, AAP’s entry could be seen as an attempt to dent Congress further, creating a situation where it will fight for relevance while also limiting Congress’s growth.Kejriwal’s Kerala push, with candidates across constituencies, could help position AAP as a more serious national player. The state offers a relatively low-risk opportunity, allowing AAP to contest without heavy stakes while keeping both BJP and Congress in check.To repeat Gujarat in Kerala?From Delhi and Punjab, Arvind Kejriwal has established a firm political foothold, successfully running a full-fledged government in Punjab under party colleague Bhagwant Mann, while also having governed the Union Territory of Delhi for over a decade with a commanding presence in the Assembly.However, the journey of the Aam Aadmi Party has not been limited to Delhi alone. Its steady, often indirect expansion has positioned Kejriwal as an emerging alternative in national politics. He has also made inroads into Gujarat, long considered a bastion of Narendra Modi.In its Gujarat debut, AAP secured over 13 percent of the vote, significantly impacting Congress. In the 2017 Assembly elections, Congress had secured 42.2 percent of the vote, putting up a strong fight against the BJP after Modi’s shift to national politics. However, AAP’s entry in 2022 disrupted that balance, reducing Congress’s vote share to 27.7 percent.While AAP made an impressive debut with around 13 percent votes, the BJP registered only a marginal increase—from about 50 percent to 53 percent.A similar pattern could unfold in Kerala, where AAP may not emerge as a dominant force but could influence the outcome by cutting into Congress’s vote share, potentially benefiting the incumbent Left—much like it did in Gujarat.To increase AAP’s footprint?The AAP, since its birth in 2013 out of Anna movement, has been in a constant effort to expand its footprint across India. So why not Kerala?For Arvind Kejriwal, ambition has never been confined to Delhi. After dismantling the long-standing dominance of Sheila Dikshit, he quickly stepped onto the national stage, taking on Narendra Modi in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. The contest in Varanasi may have ended in defeat, but it marked Kejriwal’s arrival as a major challenger.He secured over 20 percent of the vote, enough to push Congress to a distant third in Varanasi. Its candidate, Ajay Rai, managed only around 7 percent.The Kerala foray, then, is less an outlier and more a continuation of that journey, an attempt to test the party’s reach in the far south.Beyond its strongholds in Delhi and Punjab, AAP has steadily ventured into new political terrains.In Gujarat, it emerged as a significant player with over 13 percent of the vote, largely at Congress’s expense. In Goa, it secured nearly 7 percent and won two seats, once again cutting into Congress’s base.The party has even marked its presence in Jammu and Kashmir, with Mehraj Malik winning from Doda.From the northernmost reaches of J&K to AAP’s a newfound interest in the southern edge of Kerala.Rahul, Priyanka and Tharoor’s KeralaKejriwal’s entry into Kerala carries symbolic weight, especially for Congress, for whom the state has, in recent years, become a crucial political anchor. In moments of crisis, both Gandhi family scions, Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, turned to Kerala.In 2019, when Rahul Gandhi lost his very own Amethi seat, it was Wayanad that delivered him a resounding victory. He returned to Wayanad again in 2024, winning comfortably, though he eventually chose to retain Rae Bareli.“I was a stranger to you and yet you believed in me. You embraced me with unbridled love and affection. It didn’t matter which political formation you supported, it didn’t matter which community you were from or which religion you believed in or which language you spoke,” Rahul said.“I am sad, but I am consoled because my sister Priyanka will be there to represent you. I am confident that she will do an excellent job of being your MP if you decide to giver her the opportunity. My central commitment to both you and the people of Rae Bareli is that we will fight and defeat the hatred and violence being spread in the country,” he added.Stepping aside from Wayanad, Rahul Gandhi thanked the electorate and paved the way for Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s electoral debut from the same constituency. She went on to secure a resounding victory in the bypolls, further cementing the family’s connection with the state.After her win, Priyanka said, “I thank the people of Wayanad for giving me the honor to represent them.It’s a testament to the fact that my brother worked hard there, their love for him, and their trust in me. I feel it’s a great honor, and I will respect it fully.”Beyond the Gandhis, Kerala is also home to one of Congress’s most prominent national faces, Shashi Tharoor, a three-time MP from Thiruvananthapuram.Against this backdrop, Kejriwal’s Kerala push is not just another electoral experiment, it is a move that could unsettle established equations and complicate the political calculus for the state’s entrenched players.Kejriwal vs Rahul?After the formation of the INDIA bloc, the BJP-led NDA retained power at the Centre, with Rahul Gandhi becoming Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha.While Rahul rose to that position, questions over his leadership ambitions persisted. Within the opposition bloc, differences began surfacing, and AAP’s stance often appeared less aligned with him.AAP, at various points, has attempted to project Kejriwal as a potential national challenger to Narendra Modi, subtly sidelining Rahul Gandhi’s prospects.With repeated electoral setbacks for Congress and AAP’s aggressive expansion, the contest within the opposition space may no longer be just against the BJP, but also among its own key players Go to Source
