Bihar polls: New players challenging 20 years of anti-incmbency – What are the five factors that will decide election results?

Bihar will vote in two phases – 6 and 11 November. (PTI photo)

In the upcoming Bihar assembly election, multiple factors will come into play including caste dynamics, anti-incumbency sentiments, internal rifts in both major coalitions, the emergence of new political players like Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party and significant voter-driven issues like unemployment and development.Assembly elections are scheduled to be held in Bihar this year on 6 November and 11 November to elect a total of 243 members. Here are the key factors playing a role:

Long-time chief minister Nitish Kumar, at the forefront for nearly two decades, faces increasing anti-incumbency sentiment and voter fatigue with his shifting alliances also raising questions about his credibility.RJD’s leader Tejashwi Yadav is gaining popularity, particularly among the youth, by focusing on issues like jobs and migration. He was named the Mahagathbandhan’s chief ministerial candidate, though some question his leadership experience and the party’s legacy.The NDA government faces considerable anti-incumbency, but this is among the opposition, potentially neutralizing its effect. Both alliances are relying on welfare schemes to sway voters.

Political alliances and internal rifts

The election features a close contest between the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the opposition INDIA bloc (Mahagathbandhan). Both major coalitions are dealing with internal conflicts over seat-sharing.The NDA has seen tensions between the BJP and JD(U), partly due to past actions involving Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), who was allegedly used as a ‘vote-cutter’ against chief minister Nitish Kumar in 2020 but is now a key NDA ally.Meanwhile, the Mahagathbandhan is seeing infighting, with candidates from its member parties, such as the RJD and Congress, contesting against each other in some constituencies.Traditionally, the NDA has relied on support from upper castes, non-Yadav OBCs, and Mahadalits, while the Mahagathbandhan has depended on a Muslim-Yadav (MY) vote bank.However, voting patterns are becoming more fluid. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the Mahagathbandhan made inroads into the Scheduled Caste (SC) vote by focusing on social justice issues and reservations.The Dalit vote, which makes up 20% of the electorate, is complex and fragmented among different sub-castes. While some sub-castes align with the NDA through leaders like Chirag Paswan and Jitan Ram Manjhi, others are shifting toward the Mahagathbandhan.

Prashant Kishor, along with Jan Suraaj National President Uday Singh, during a press conference (ANI)

New players

Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) has emerged as a potential disruptor by appealing to youth and educated voters on a platform of development and non-traditional caste politics.Once among India’s most sought-after election strategists, Prashant however announced that he would stay away from contesting this year’s Bihar polls — a decision he said was taken ‘in the larger interest’ of his Jan Suraaj Party. His sharp criticism targets both NDA and Mahagathbandhan leaders, challenging their credibility and governance. He has described this election as a make-or-break moment for his party, stating it will either finish first or last, leaving no middle ground.Meanwhile, the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) has announced the launch of a new third front — the Grand Democratic Alliance (GDA). The alliance brings together AIMIM, Chandrasekhar Azad’s Azad Samaj Party (ASP) and Swami Prasad Maurya’s Apna Janata Party (AJP). It plans to field candidates in at least 64 of the 243 constituencies.

A recent statewide caste census found that Other Backward Classes (OBCs) and Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) constitute over 63% of the population. This has intensified the focus on caste-based mobilization.Bihar’s total population of approximately 13.07 crore is divided along caste lines as follows: Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) constitute about 36.01%, Other Backward Classes (OBCs) 27.12%, Scheduled Castes (SCs) 19.65%, Scheduled Tribes (STs) 1.68%, and General Category about 15.38%.

BJP leans on upper-caste blocs, Brahmins, Rajputs, Bhumihars and Kayasthas, who, while a minority, wield outsized influence. However, the party, which is aiming to be self-sufficient in Bihar without relying heavily on the JDU alliance, has broadened its outreach to non-Yadav OBCs and EBCs by elevating leaders from those groups and secured roughly 30% of votes in recent contests through this social mix. The Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) in Bihar faces a complex caste and electoral landscape shaped by the state’s diverse demographic composition. Together, this Muslim-Yadav combination makes up more than 30% of the electorate supporting RJD. The Indian National Congress garners support mainly from upper castes, some OBC sub-groups, and urban voters, forming a moderate but significant segment of the Mahagathbandhan.

Unemployment: A major concern for voters is high unemployment and the ongoing out-migration of youth seeking better job prospects elsewhere.Economic promises: Both alliances have made ambitious economic promises that critics say the state budget can barely afford, raising questions about their feasibility.Women upliftment: Women are emerging as a distinct voting bloc, with the NDA seeing stronger support among women voters partly due to welfare schemes.Muslim vote: Bihar’s significant Muslim population remains a decisive force, with the Mahagathbandhan largely backed by Muslim voters. However, AIMIM and JSP could potentially divide this vote. Go to Source