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NEW DELHI: If assembly polls since the Lok Sabha elections in 2024 reiterated BJP’s dominance and deflated hopes of its rivals emboldened by their LS poll bump, the fresh round of electoral battle will test the party’s mettle and determine if it can build on its momentum to make new strides in regions considered most unfriendly to its overtures so far. The poll announcement comes amid the opposition’s united attack on PM Modi govt over trade agreement with the US, energy concerns due to the West Asian crisis, and SIR of electoral rolls exercise, and the elections will offer a window into the popular mood. BJP is going to the poll in Assam, where it has been in power since 2016, with confidence, and to Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and especially West Bengal, with varying degrees of hope, three states it has never governed. More than Congress, it is regional parties which have proved resilient against BJP, and two of BJP’s most vocal critics, CM Mamata Banerjee in Bengal and CM M K Stalin in TN, are in the fray in this round of polls.
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BJP is in office in only one of the four poll-bound states, while it is part of the governing alliance in the poll-bound UT of Puducherry. Outside Assam, BJP has the highest stake in neighbouring Bengal, where it is the direct challenger to TMC, while the party has taken the lead in stitching together an alliance under AIADMK’s leadership to take on the DMK-led bloc in TN. In Kerala, the electoral battle is largely between the incumbent CPM-led LDF and the Congress-UDF, but BJP, which pulled nearly 17% of the vote share in 2024, is being seen as an X factor that will influence the final outcome. As is often the case, PM Narendra Modi has led BJP’s pre-poll outreach by mixing the launch of development programmes with political rallies in all these states, with Bengal being his last port of call, where he addressed a rally in Kolkata Saturday. BJP believes its campaign around Hindu consciousness amid concerns over infiltration and TMC’s alleged pro-Muslim politics and misrule has taken root in the state and will help make up for what it may lack in organisational machinery against its rival’s well-oiled network. The PM’s attack on the Bengal CM, that she was working to reduce Hindus to a minority in the state, was sharper than usual “appeasement” charge BJP has levelled against her. In office since 2011, Mamata has thwarted BJP after being surprised by its performance in 2019 LS election when it won its best-ever tally of 18 seats against TMC’s 22. However, its steady 38-39% vote share in the last several polls has given BJP a launchpad to make a serious and determined bid to vanquish her. Under Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma, BJP has turned the alleged infiltration from Bangladesh into a resonant poll issue in the northeastern state and mixed this with native appeal.
