2027 UP assembly elections: How parties are vying for Dalit votes amid Mayawati’s shrinking base

As
Mayawati’s
base
sh i ks,
BJP,
SP
a d
Co g ess
i te sify
fight
fo
Dalit
votes
i
UP

NEW
DELHI:
Dalit
politics
i

Utta
P adesh
is
at
a
c oss oads.
Fo
a
ve y
lo g
time,
Mayawati
a d
he
Bahuja
Samaj
Pa ty
we e
sy o ymous
with
the
idea
of
Dalit
vote
i
UP.
Not
a y
mo e.
Mayawati’s
BSP
today
is
a
much
weake
fo ce.
The
last
th ee
electio s
i
the
state
have
pushed
Mayawati,
the
fou -time
chief
mi iste
of
UP,
to
the
ma gi s
of
state
politics.
This
has
ope ed
up
the
Dalit
space
a d
t igge ed
a
i te esti g
sc amble
amo g
political
pa ties
fo
a
slice
of
the
Dalit
pie
i
the
2027
assembly
electio s.So,
we
have
the
BJP
playi g
the
ame-cha ge
game
i
Bhadohi
a d
o ga isi g
a
7-mo th
campaig
to
ho ou
15th-ce tu y
sai t-poet
Sa t
Ravi
Das.
The
we
have
Samajwadi
Pa ty
chief

Akhilesh
Yadav
a ou ci g
14
ext a
seats
fo
the
Dalits
to
ceme t
his
PDA
(Pichhda,
Dalit,
Alpsa khyak)
politics.
Co g ess
too
is
t yi g
to
wi
back
vote s
it
lost
decades
ago.
The
the e
is
Cha d ashekha
Azad,
who
is
t yi g
to
co solidate
his
ow
space
i
the
state.As
Utta
P adesh
heads
towa ds
2027,
the
questio
is:
if
the
BSP
co ti ues
to
lose
g ou d,
whe e
does
Mayawati’s
old
suppo t
base
go
a d
which
of
he
ivals
sta ds
to
gai
the
most?

F om
206
seats
to
o e:
How
BSP
lost
g ou d

The
BSP’s
ise
i
UP
politics
was
as
d amatic
as
its
fall.
The
pa ty
was
fou ded
by
Ka shi
Ram
i
1984
with
the
idea
of
givi g
Dalits
a d
othe
ma gi alized
commu ities
a
i depe de t
voice.

Mayawati,
who
eme ged
as
his
political
successo ,
took
the
BSP
to
g eat
heights
i
Utta
P adesh.
U de
he
leade ship,
the
BSP
wo
a
majo ity
o
its
ow
i
the
2007
assembly
electio s,
wi i g
206
seats
with
a
vote
sha e
of
30.43%.Dalits,
who
co stitute
a ou d
21%
of
UP’s
populatio
as
pe
the
2021
ce sus,
have
fo
yea s
bee
the
co e
base
of
Mayawati’s
Bahuja
Samaj
Pa ty.
But
that
dy amic
has
ow
cha ged.BSP
is
a
much
weake
fo ce
today.
Mayawati
has
failed
to
mobilise
Dalit
suppo t
fo
he
BSP
i
the
last
two
electio s
i
the
state,
the eby
ope i g
up
the
space
fo
othe
political
co te de s.
I
the
2022
assembly
electio s,
the
BSP
could
wi
just
1
seat
with
a
vote
sha e
of
12.88%.
This
was
a
sha p
decli e
f om
the
19
seats
a d
a
22.23%
vote
sha e
that
Mayawati
had
got
i
2017.

The
2024
Lok
Sabha
electio s
we t
o
to
showcase
that
Mayawati’s
dismal
2022
pe fo ma ce
was
ot
a
abe atio .
The
BSP
sup emo
failed
to
wi
eve
o e
Lok
Sabha
seat,
while
he
pa ty’s
vote
sha e
dipped
to
9.4%
f om
19.43%
i
2019.
Clea ly,
the
esults
ei fo ced
the
g adual
decli e
i
BSP’s
i flue ce
amo g
Dalits.As
Mayawati
gea s
up
fo
the
2027
assembly
challe ge,
she
faces
a
uphill
oad.
The
BSP
chief
has
ot
just
lost
suppo t
of
vote s,
but
also
co t ol
ove
he
pa ty.
So,
whe
Mayawati
issued
a
ste
message
that
all
the
ca didates
fo
the
upcomi g
poll
will
be
fi alised
by
he
a d
ot
by
he
ephew
Akash
A a d,
it
was
a
i dicatio
of
the
i te al
tussle
i
he
pa ty.Akash
A a d,
who
has
bee
i
a d
out
of
Mayawati’s
favou
i
the
past,
lau ched
the
pa ty’s
2027
assembly
poll
campaig
f om
Sadabad
i
Hath as
this
week.Mayawati,
who
has
ofte
bee
accused
of
helpi g
the
BJP,
has
uled
out
a y
p e-poll
allia ce.
She
has
claimed
that
some
ca didates
have
al eady
bee
fi alised
fo
the
upcomi g
assembly
electio s.
Mayawati
has
asked
pa ty
cad es
to
sta t
ebuildi g
the
pa ty
a d
d um
up
OBC
suppo t
ahead
of
the
polls.
The
cad es
have
appa e tly
bee
asked
to
emi d
people
of
the
pa ty’s
past
gove a ce
a d
co vi ce
them
that
the
eal
be efit
a d
welfa e
of
the
OBC
commu ity
lie
with
the
BSP
a d
its
“i o
lady
gove me t”.Mayawati,
howeve ,
must
co side
that
it
will
be
difficult
fo
the
BSP
to
come
back
to
powe
o ly
by
holdi g
o
to
its
co e
Dalit
vote
alo e.
It
will
have
to
ec eate
the
Dalit-OBC
combi atio
that
o igi ally
ca ied
Mayawati
to
powe
i
Luck ow
with
a
majo ity
of
he
ow .

BJP’s
Dalit
out each
gets
sha pe
ahead
of
2027

O e
i te esti g
fallout
of
BSP’s
decli e
has
bee
the
BJP’s
agg essive
out each
to
woo
the
Dalits.
Whe
Utta
P adesh
chief
mi iste
Yogi
Aditya ath
a ou ced
the
e ami g
of
Bhadohi
dist ict
as
Sa t
Ravidas
Naga
last
mo th,
he
put
the
BJP
ight
at
the
middle
of
the
Dalit
out each
battle
ahead
of
2027
polls.The
move
also
evived
a
old
political
co test
ove
ame-cha ge
politics.
Mayawati
was
the
o e
who
had
e amed
Bhadohi
as
Sa t
Ravidas
Naga
i
Decembe
1997.
Akhilesh
Yadav
esto ed
the
old
ame
i
2014.
Now,
by
b i gi g
Sa t
Ravidas
Naga
back,
Yogi
sought
to
make
a
bigge
political
poi t,
accusi g
the
SP
of
e asi g
a
Dalit
symbol
while
positio i g
the
BJP
as
a
pa ty
willi g
to
esto e
it.Mayawati
publicly
welcomed
the
decisio ,
a
a e
mome t
of
ag eeme t
with
the
uli g
pa ty.
She
was
quick,
howeve ,
to
emi d
vote s
that
it
was
he
gove me t
that
had
cha ged
the
dist ict’s
ame
i
the
fi st
place
a d
that
the
decisio
was
late
eve sed
u de
Akhilesh.The
pa ty
ealises
that
Dalit
votes
a e
up
fo
g abs
a d
he ce
is
goi g
all
out
to
woo
them.
The
pa ty’s
‘Sam asta
Sa kalp
Abhiya ’
appea s
pla ed
to
coi cide
with
assembly
electio s
i
two
key
states,
Utta
P adesh
a d
Pu jab,
ea ly
ext
yea .Both
these
states
have
a
sizeable
populatio
of
Dalits
who
play
a
impo ta t
ole
i
ma y
co stitue cies.
I
the
2022
assembly
electio s,
the
BJP
a d
its
ally
Ap a
Dal
(So eylal)
togethe
bagged
63
Scheduled
Caste
(SC)
seats
compa ed
to
20
wo
by
the
the
Samajwadi
Pa ty-led
oppositio
allia ce.
But
the
2024
Lok
Sabha
polls
cha ged
the
dy amics,
with
the
SP
a d
the
Co g ess
wi i g
43
of
the
80
seats
i
the
state
a d
pushi g
the
BJP
to
make
a
agg essive
out each.
The
loss
of
Faizabad
seat
to
SP’s
Awadhesh
P asad,
a
Pasi
leade ,
was
pa ticula ly
sig ifica t
a d
gave
Akhilesh
Yadav
f esh
ammu itio
fo
his
PDA
pitch.

Ea lie
this
yea ,
the
Yogi
Aditya ath
gove me t
app oved
the
“D
B
R
Ambedka
Mu ti
Vikas
Yoj a”
u de
which
Rs
1
c o e
is
to
be
allocated
to
each
of
the
state’s
403
assembly
co stitue cies
fo
the
beautificatio
a d
developme t
of
statues
of
social
efo me s.The
BJP’s
effo ts
to
woo
Dalits
has
also
bee
visible
i
its
ece t
Cabi et
expa sio .
Of
the
six
ew
mi iste s
i ducted
i to
the
Yogi
gove me t,
two
we e
Dalits,
K ish a
Paswa
f om
the
Pasi
commu ity
a d
Su e d a
Si gh
Dale
f om
the
Valmiki
commu ity.
Th ee
othe s
we e
f om
OBC
g oups.
Two
o -Yadav
OBC
mi iste s
we e
also
give
i depe de t
cha ge.The
BJP’s
p ima y
task
ahead
of
2027
would
be
to
hold
o
to
the
o -Jatav
Dalit
suppo t
it
built
ove
the
past
decade
a d
p eve t
a
epeat
of
2024.

SP’s
Dalit
out each

The
2024
Lok
Sabha
electio s
also
showed
that
the
Dalits
i
UP
we e
eady
to
back
othe
political
pa ties
who
wooed
them.
Dalit
suppo t
played
a
key
ole
i
the
spectacula
success
of
Akhilesh
Yadav’s
Samajwadi
Pa ty,
which
wo
37
seats
i
2024.Togethe
with
its
allia ce
pa t e
Co g ess,
the
INDIA
bloc
wo
43
of
the
80
seats
i
the
state,
pushi g
the
BJP
o
the
back
foot.
Akhilesh
Yadav,
who
has
ce t ed
his
politics
a ou d
PDA
(Pichhde,
Dalits
a d
Aplasa khyaks),
gai ed
f om
his
Dalit
out each
i
the
2024
electio s.
His
Samajwadi
Pa ty
fielded
two
Dalit
ca didates
f om
ge e al
seats.
While
o e
of
them
we t
o
to
wi
the
all-impo ta t
Faizabad
seat,
the
othe
lost
by
just
10,585
votes
to
the
BJP
i
Mee ut.

How
Samajwadi
Pa ty
pe fo med
whe
they
co tested
i depe de tly

Little
wo de ,
i
the
u -up
to
the
2027
assembly
electio s,
Akhilesh
has
al eady
a ou ced
pla s
to
field
14
Dalit
ca didates
f om
ge e al
seats.
Utta
P adesh
has
84
seats
ese ved
fo
Scheduled
Castes
a d
two
fo
Scheduled
T ibes.
With
14
mo e
ca didates
o
ge e al
seats,
the
total
tally
of
ese ved
ca didates
fo
SP
will
i c ease
to
100.
This
will
help
ei fo ce
his
message
to
the
Dalits
i
li e
with
his
PDA
politics.
The
move
will
also
help
the
SP
shed
the
a ative
of
bei g
a
Muslim-Yadav
pa ty.

Co g ess
t ies
to
eclaim
lost
g ou d

Rahul
Ga dhi
has
made
it
clea
that
Dalits
would
ow
play
a
‘ce t al
ole’
i
Co g ess.
Befo e
Mayawati
a d
the
BSP
built
thei
massive
Dalit
vote
ba k
i
the
1990s,
Co g ess
was
the
p ima y
choice
fo
Utta
P adesh’s
Dalits.
Fo
ea ly
th ee
decades
afte
that,
Co g ess
was
almost
pushed
out
of
UP
politics.Rahul
Ga dhi
has
sta ted
his
oad
to
the
UP
electio
by
ack owledgi g
that
the
pa ty
had
failed
to
take
the
ight
steps
fo
the
commu ity
i
the
1980s
a d
1990s.
He
eve
p aised
Ka shi
Ram
fo
b i gi g
Dalits
togethe
a d
givi g
the
commu ity
a
se se
of
co fide ce.

Rahul
has
also
made
the
Co stitutio
a
egula
pa t
of
his
social
justice
pitch.
He
is
ofte
see
ca yi g
the
ed
book
of
the
Co stitutio
while
wa i g
that
co stitutio al
ights
a d
ese vatio
a e
u de
th eat.
He
has
epeatedly
i voked
BR
Ambedka
i
the
same
pitch,
asse ti g
that
Co g ess
wa ts
to
positio
itself
as
a
gua dia
of
the
Co stitutio .The
pa ty
has
also
put
a
Dalit
leade
i
cha ge
of
Utta
P adesh.
Raje d a
Pal
Gautam,
who
heads
the
Co g ess’s
Scheduled
Castes
Depa tme t,
has
bee
appoi ted
UP
i -cha ge
ahead
of
the
2027
polls.
I te esti gly,
Gautam
had
also
made
a
u successful
attempt
to
meet
Mayawati
at
he
Luck ow
eside ce
ea lie
this
yea .Whethe
the
pa ty
will
be
able
to
t a slate
this
out each
i to
votes
emai s
to
be
see .

Cha d ashekha
Azad
adds
a othe
claima t

The
the e
is
Cha d ashekha
Azad,
whose
2024
victo y
f om
Nagi a
made
him
a
p omi e t
figu e
i
UP’s
Dalit
politics.
U like
BJP,
SP
o
Co g ess,
Azad
is
t yi g
to
build
a
i depe de t
space
outside
the
BSP.
His
challe ge
ow
is
to
take
that
appeal
beyo d
o e
co stitue cy
a d
build
a
o ga isatio
st o g
e ough
to
matte
ac oss
the
state
i
2027.

That
is
what
makes
the
comi g
assembly
electio
i
Utta
P adesh
i te esti g.
Fo
decades,
politics
i
Utta
P adesh
has
evolved
a ou d
caste.
Political
pa ties
build
thei
electo al
st ategies
a ou d
social
coalitio s,
loyalty
of
commu ities
a d
t aditio al
vote
base.Mayawati
may
o
lo ge
comma d
the
Dalit
vote
the
way
she
o ce
did,
but
that
vote
ba k
has
ot
disappea ed.
It
simply
has
mo e
claima ts.
A d
i
2027,
whe e
those
vote s
eve tually
move
could
make
a
sig ifica t
diffe e ce.

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