MK Stalin, Mamata Banerjee, Himanta Biswa Sarma and Pinarayi Vijayan (File photos)
NEW DELHI: The ruling NDA led by the BJP had a lot to cheer in 2025 with decisive victories in Delhi and Bihar – the two states where assembly elections were held this year. For the opposition, 2025 was a year of disappointments. While the Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP was defeated in Delhi, the Mahagathbandhan of Congress, Lalu Prasad’s RJD and the Left was decimated in Bihar. But 2026 could be an opportunity for the opposition to bounce back as four states and one Union Territory – West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Puducherry — will vote to choose their new assemblies. Except Assam, which is ruled by the BJP, the opposition has a dominant presence in the other three states.
PM Modi after Bihar victory
With polls due between March and May 2026, parties have already begun calibrating strategies and sharpening their pitch to voters.In West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress will be defending its fortress as it seeks to hold off a renewed BJP push, while the Congress and Left will make another effort to recover lost political ground.In Kerala, the CPM-led LDF is eyeing an unprecedented third consecutive term — a feat unheard of in the state’s traditional pendulum-like politics. Tamil Nadu is preparing for another round of the Dravidian duel, with the DMK and AIADMK once again anchoring the state’s political battlefield.In Assam, the BJP-led NDA under Himanta Biswa Sarma will fight to hold the state even as the Congress looks to stage a revival.Meanwhile, in Puducherry, N Rangasamy’s AINRC–BJP coalition faces the challenge of holding together a fragile alliance against a DMK seeking to widen its footprint and a weakened Congress attempting a comeback.A key undercurrent across these contests is the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls, extended to several poll-bound states including West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. The 2026 elections will therefore unfold on updated voter lists — a factor that could change a lot of things.
West Bengal
Buoyed by its sweeping win in the recent Bihar assembly elections, the BJP has made its ambitions clear: Bengal is the saffron party’s next battleground.Ahead of the 2026 polls, the BJP is pushing hard to turn momentum into seats. Meanwhile, the TMC, which won 213 of the 294 assembly seats in 2021 with roughly 48% vote share, is back in full campaign mode, defending a fortress it has held for over a decade. With the Congress party struggling to regain its footing, the stage is set for a high-stakes political showdown.
What’s at stake?
BJP’s rising influence
From a modest presence in 2016 with just 3 seats, the BJP surged to 77 seats and approximately 38% of the vote share in 2021. The 2026 elections will test whether this was a temporary surge or the beginning of a sustained challenge to the TMC’s dominance in Bengal.
TMC’s incumbency challenge
With 213+ seats and 48% vote share in 2021, Mamata Banerjee enters 2026 as the incumbent with the widest lead. She has already begun mobilisation and outreach, but the real challenge is holding this high ceiling in the face of anti-incumbency and a more aggressive BJP than before.
Congress fights for relevance
From being a dominant force pre-2011 to being almost wiped out in 2021, Congress is now battling for visibility. Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury’s removal and Subhankar Sarkar’s appointment hasn’t yet translated into a loud political message or campaign repositioning leaving Congress still searching for footing.
INDIA bloc?
With the future of the opposition’s INDIA bloc uncertain and Mamata Banerjee repeatedly hinting that TMC will contest Bengal alone, Congress risks being caught between two compulsions: aligning nationally versus confronting TMC locally.”Bengal is ours, we will fight here alone,” the West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee has already declared.
SIR factor
Additionally, the 2026 elections will be conducted under a Special Intensive Revision of electoral rolls. Changes in voter registrations, particularly in minority-heavy or urban constituencies, could significantly impact the margins in key swing seats.
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu is gearing up not only for another showdown between Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), but also for a potentially game-changing third force.The entry of TVK under Vijay has made Tamil Nadu assembly elections in the state all the more interesting.
Tamil Nadu assembly elections 2021
What’s at stake?
DMK’s incumbency test
The ruling DMK enters 2026 from a position of strength, having secured 133 seats on its own in the previous assembly election. However, the party faces a tougher political landscape this time, with the AIADMK–BJP alliance regrouped and better aligned than in 2021. Tamil Nadu chief minister Stalin has already announced that the party will contest the state polls as part of the INDIA bloc, calling it an ideological partnership built on shared goals.The real test, however, lies in whether DMK can overcome anti-incumbency pressures, defend its welfare and governance record, and manage voter expectations on issues like jobs, NEET exemption and power tariffs.
AIADMK–BJP alliance
The 2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly election is a high-stakes battle for the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), which is desperately looking for a comeback after two consecutive electoral defeats. The big question for 2026 is whether the renewed AIADMK–BJP partnership can translate into seats. In 2021, the AIADMK-led front won 75 seats, while the BJP remained a secondary force. However, together they remain the largest challenger bloc to the ruling DMK. Edappadi K. Palaniswami has already set the tone, vowing that the front will “shatter Stalin’s dream of winning 200 seats” and predicting that the alliance could cross 210.A key factor that complicates the opposition arithmetic is the entry of actor Vijay with his party, the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), whose decision to contest alone threatens to split the anti-DMK vote.
TVK factor
The 2026 Tamil Nadu election is the crucial electoral debut for actor Vijay’s TVK, who has boldly declared the contest as a “TVK versus DMK” fight and positioned himself as the alternative to “Stalin uncle”. Vijay has massive youth following and has a potential surprise factor to disrupt the traditional bipolar contest. However, the tragic Karur stampede that claimed 41 lives during one of his pre-poll roadshows casts a significant negative shadow. The incident has been heavily leveraged by the opposition, forcing Vijay and the TVK to defend their competence and win public trust.
Assam
In Assam, the BJP-led NDA under the leadership of chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. who has become one of the party’s most prominent regional faces, will fight to hold the state, aiming to secure an unprecedented third consecutive term.
What’s at stake?
BJP’s regional dominance
Despite the 75 seats won in 2021, anti-incumbency remains a major underlying challenge. Chief minister Sarma, however, has set an aggressive target, confidently claiming the NDA is capable of winning “104 out of 126 seats”.
Congress’s revival test
The Congress, which won 50 seats in 2021, is desperate for a comeback, led by the newly appointed state chief, Gaurav Gogoi. The party is trying to leverage the “10-year anti-incumbency” against the BJP, with Gogoi stating, “After 10 years of BJP’s corrupt and authoritarian rule, the people of Assam want change.”This election is a personal test for Gogoi, who must prove he can translate his Lok Sabha victory into a wider assembly-level revival for the party.
AIUDF’s dilemma
Badruddin Ajmal’s AIUDF won 16 seats in 2021, performing strongly in Muslim-majority pockets. A breakup with Congress or a solo contest could split the opposition vote — benefiting BJP in triangular fights.
Kerala
Kerala heads into 2026 with one of the rarest scenarios in its electoral history — a ruling front attempting to win a third consecutive term. The CPI(M)-led LDF broke the state’s alternating pattern in 2021, winning 99 of 140 seats while the Congress-led UDF slipped to 41, and the BJP once again failed to open its account.
Kerala assembly elections 2021
What’s at stake?
LDF’s third-term bid
The LDF has never won three consecutive assemblies in Kerala’s democratic history. For the CPI(M), which leads the front, this election is critical as Kerala remains the only major state where the Left is currently in power on its own strength. Chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan, who will again lead the front, is campaigning on the theme of “continuity for progress.” Senior CPI(M) leaders, like KN Balagopal, have publicly stated that “continuity was vital to maintain the momentum” of development and welfare policies. However, the LDF faces a significant anti-incumbency challenge, which the opposition is leveraging to counter the government’s claims of development.
UDF’s existential battle
UDF dropped from 47 seats in 2016 to 41 in 2021, still holding a sizable vote share but struggling to convert it. 2026 is the coalition’s best opportunity to regain ground if anti-incumbency builds. A weak result could push UDF further into inertia, shrinking the Congress footprint in another southern state.
BJP — still on the sidelines?
BJP has contested aggressively for two cycles but holds zero MLA seats in Kerala. If it breaks that barrier in 2026 — even with 1–3 wins — it changes the dynamics of the House. If it fails again, Kerala remains one of the last major states outside BJP’s elected footprint.
Puducherry
In Puducherry, N Rangasamy’s AINRC–BJP coalition faces the challenge of holding together a fragile alliance against a resurgent DMK seeking to widen its footprint and a weakened Congress attempting a comeback.
What’s at stake?
NDA’s fragile coalition
The ruling NDA is led by the All India NR Congress (AINRC) and BJP. In 2021, the AINRC won 10 seats and the BJP won 6 seats. This coalition is under immense pressure due to internal discord and anti-incumbency. The internal rift was brought to the forefront by the resignation of a lone Dalit minister AK Sai J Saravanan Kumar, on the decision of the high command.The move triggered strong reactions and exposed deeper fault lines within the coalition and the local BJP unit.
DMK’s attempt to expand
The DMK entered the 2021 Puducherry polls with limited ground presence but still emerged with 6 seats, overtaking the Congress to become the largest opposition party. For 2026, the main challenge for DMK would be to widen its footprint in the Union territory and convert influence into numbers.
Congress — survival, not dominance
Like in many other states, the Congress is fighting for survival in Puducherry too. Once the ruling party here, it has slipped to the margins since the 2021 election. For Congress, 2026 is not about winning power; it is about preventing irrelevance. A tally of 5–6 seats keeps it alive; anything below that accelerates decline. The grand old party must survive before it can compete.The Election Commission’s SIR of electoral rolls has already raised the pitch in these states, with the BJP strongly backing the exercise while the opposition accusing the poll body of helping the saffron party gain an advantage over its political opponents. 2026 is clearly all set for interesting electoral contests. Go to Source
