Nepal protests: Trouble for Oli? Clamour grows in Nepali Congress to quit coalition govt

After the police crackdown killed 19 protesters and injured hundreds, Nepali Prime Minister Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli is on a shaky ground as his key coalition partner, Nepali Congress (NC), is under pressure to quit the government.

NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba is under pressure from senior party leaders to quit the Oli-led coalition government, according to Kantipur newspaper.

In a meeting at Deuba’s residence in Kathmandu to discuss the developing situation, NC General Secretaries Gagan Kumar Thapa and Bishwaprakash Sharma and Deputy General Secretary Jeevan Pariyar said the party should quit the government, as per the report.

Even before any formal decision, Home Minister Ramesh Lekhak of NC resigned on Monday evening. The report said that more ministers from NC’s faction of Thapa and Shekhar Koirala are expected to quit.

One minister who attended the meeting at Deuba’s residence told Kantipur that Lekhak resigned as Deuba has not yet made a decision to quit the government. This minister indicated that other NC ministers in the government could also resign soon even without any formal decision to quit the coalition.

Will Oli’s government fall without NC’s support?

In case of NC’s withdrawal from the coalition, Oli’s government would fall as his Communist Party of Nepal—Unified Marxist-Leninist (CPN-UML) does not have a majority of its own and relies on support from NC.

In the 275-member Nepali House of Representatives, CPN-UML has 79 seats and relies on NC’s 88 seats to reach the majority mark of 138.

The other major party, Nepal Communist Party-Maoist Center (NCP-MC) of Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ has 32 seats.

In case the NC decides to quit the coalition, Oli would either have to weave a coalition with Prachanda and other smaller parties or the NC may stake claim to form the government if it would be able to strike a deal with other parties.

A political deadlock appears likely as an Oli-Prachanda alliance may be hard to come by as the two leaders had a fallout around two years ago when Oli’s machinations led to the collapse of the Oli-Prachanda alliance and the collapse of the government of Prachanda’s NCP-MC and Oli’s CPN-UML. But Nepali politicians have often put differences aside, whether ideological or political, to form coalitions of convenience so nothing could be ruled out at this point.