Javier Milei faces setback as his party loses Buenos Aires vote ahead of midterm polls

Argentina’s libertarian President Javier Milei suffered a significant political blow as his party, La Libertad Avanza, was decisively defeated in Buenos Aires province.

The election, widely viewed as a litmus test for the Milei government ahead of national midterm polls next month, saw the centre-left Fuerza Patria coalition secure a commanding victory with over 46 per cent of the vote, compared to nearly 34 per cent for Milei’s party.

The result casts doubt over the president’s political momentum and raises questions about the viability of his reform agenda.

Buenos Aires: A crucial battleground

Buenos Aires province, home to nearly 40 per cent of Argentina’s electorate, has historically been a Peronist stronghold, but pre-election expectations had suggested a tighter race. Analysts and market watchers had predicted either a narrow government loss or a close contest, which would have allowed Milei to build momentum ahead of the October 26 midterm elections.

Instead, the wider-than-expected margin in favour of Fuerza Patria surprised observers and analysts alike. “Buenos Aires province is traditionally very Peronist, but this margin is even worse than expected,” noted Alberto Ades, head of research at hedge fund NWI Management, highlighting potential negative reactions in the financial markets, according to Financial Times.

Political and fiscal challenges

Milei, who took office in 2023, has pursued an ambitious libertarian agenda focused on austerity measures and significant budget cuts. However, he has faced mounting obstacles in implementing his fiscal reforms.

Last week, Congress overrode one of his vetoes for the first time in his tenure, signaling resistance from opposition legislators who have also introduced new spending bills. The election defeat in Buenos Aires further undermines Milei’s ability to expand his small congressional base, which he had hoped to strengthen through the midterm polls.

Corruption scandal clouds presidency

Compounding Milei’s political woes is a corruption scandal involving leaked recordings of a former official and allegations of kickbacks tied to his sister Karina. The controversy has dominated headlines in recent weeks and contributed to a decline in the president’s approval rating, which has fallen below 40 per cent.

Analysts suggest that the scandal, coupled with public scepticism toward his economic reforms, played a decisive role in his party’s electoral underperformance.

Implications for midterm elections

The Buenos Aires result delivers a sobering message for Milei and his allies as Argentina approaches midterm elections. With public support waning and political and financial challenges mounting, the president faces an uphill battle in advancing his policy agenda and consolidating power.

Observers now view the October polls as a critical juncture for determining whether Milei can regain momentum or if his reform ambitions will be stalled by political resistance and public disillusionment.