French PM Bayrou set to lose trust vote today

Prime Minister Francois Bayrou of France is widely expected to be ousted in a vote of confidence on Monday. The fall of his government would deepen the country’s political and economic crises and weaken President Emmanuel Macron’s standing.

Bayrou has called a special parliamentary session on Monday to hold a vote of confidence over his budget proposals to tackle France’s debt crisis. Parties from across the spectrum, from the far-right RN to Greens and Socialists, have vowed to vote against him to topple his government.

Opposition parties have pinned France’s political crisis on Macron. While the RN has called for fresh parliamentary elections, France Unbowed has called for Macron’s resignation upon Bayour’s ouster.

Bayrou would be the second prime minister to be ousted in little more than a year in a trust vote. His predecessor, Michel Barnier, was ousted in a trust vote in December 2024. Later than month, Macron appointed Bayrou as the prime minister, who has since led a minority government with support from Macron’s centrist coalition and external support from parties like RN and Socialists on a case-by-case basis. But these parties have now turned against him.

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There are bound to be international ramifications of Bayrou’s loss. Macron has been among the foremost supporters of Ukraine in the war with Russia and has led the ‘coalition of the willing’ with British PM Sir Keir Starmer to counter the Russian aggression. If the pro-Russia, Europskeptic RN forms the government, France’s commitment to the EU and resistance to the Russian aggression may no longer be assured.

Macron looks at Socialists for support

A participant of a meeting of centrist parties part of Macron’s coalition said the president urged them to “work with the Socialists”, according to AFP.

The development is an apparent effort to keep the far-right RN out of the government. Such an effort may also involve seeking support from other left-wing parties.

Socialist leader Olivier Faure has made no secret of his readiness to become the prime minister. He has even produced his own draft budget to address the economic crisis of the country. He could very well be the next prime minister if the arrangement works out.

However, the public opinion is against Macron, according to polls.

A poll by Odoxa-Backbone for Le Figaro newspaper found that 64 per cent of people want Macron to resign instead of naming a new prime minister. But Macron has ruled out such a move.