French government toppled: What next for Macron and Co?

French Prime Minister François Bayrou was decisively brought down by the National Assembly in a vote of no confidence on Monday.

The development forces President Emmanuel Macron to once again confront a leadership vacuum at the highest level of government amidst serious economic challenges.

Bayrou’s administration was defeated in a 364-194 vote, a margin that highlighted the growing unity of opposition parties against the president’s centrist bloc.

This marks the fourth change of prime minister in less than a year.

Why Bayrou was ousted

François Bayrou, a seasoned political figure and long-time centrist leader, assumed the role of prime minister in December 2024, taking over after the short-lived tenure of Michel Barnier.

Barnier himself had been ousted earlier that same month following parliamentary resistance to his fiscal agenda.

Bayrou’s government faced similar obstacles. His downfall came after he presented a 44-billion-euro (approximately $51 billion) deficit-reduction package aimed at stabilising France’s finances.

The plan involved freezing welfare payments, eliminating two public holidays, and other cost-cutting measures designed to reduce the budget deficit over the coming years.

France’s fiscal position has become increasingly precarious. The country’s budget deficit currently stands at 169 billion euros ($198 billion), equivalent to 5.8 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) — well above the 3 per cent limit mandated for countries within the European Union’s single currency zone.

Bayrou’s programme sought to gradually bring the deficit under control by lowering it to 4.6 per cent of GDP in 2026, then to 2.8 per cent by 2029.

This trajectory would also reduce France’s overall debt-to-GDP ratio to 117.2 per cent by 2029, compared to a projected 125.3 per cent if no corrective action were taken.

Speaking before lawmakers in the National Assembly on the day of the vote, Bayrou warned that ignoring the fiscal crisis would leave younger generations burdened with debt accumulated by previous ones.

He argued that France’s current path was unsustainable and urged legislators to confront the issue head-on.

However, his proposals were politically unpopular and faced opposition from both ends of the spectrum.

Leftist parties objected to cuts in welfare and social protections, while the far-right camp criticised the government for what it described as policies that harmed ordinary French citizens.

On August 25, Jordan Bardella, leader of the far-right National Rally, stated, “Never vote in favour of a government whose decisions are making the French suffer.” He added that Bayrou’s announcement of a confidence vote effectively marked “the end of his government.”

Bayrou’s remarks about generational fairness also struck a personal note when he said that young citizens would face decades of repayment “for the sake of the comfort of boomers.”

Born in 1951, Bayrou himself belongs to the post-war baby boomer generation.

How France got here

The outcome of the vote was never seriously in doubt. In the weeks leading up to the session, it was evident that opposition groups, ranging from the far left to the far right, had agreed to align against Bayrou’s deficit reduction strategy.

Together, these parties command 330 seats in the 577-member National Assembly, giving them a clear majority over Macron’s centrist alliance.

The extraordinary session of parliament interrupted the usual summer recess. After an afternoon of debate, speeches, and questions to the prime minister, the vote was held, sealing Bayrou’s fate.

The defeat highlighted the fragmented nature of the current parliament, a situation that traces back to Macron’s decision in June 2024 to dissolve the National Assembly and call a snap election.

At the time, Macron hoped to strengthen his position by securing a renewed mandate for his pro-European centrist coalition.

Instead, the election produced a hung parliament with no single group holding a decisive majority.

A left-wing alliance emerged with the largest number of seats but fell short of forming a government.

The National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen and Bardella, won the highest share of votes but also lacked a majority.

Macron’s centrist bloc lost seats and influence, leaving it unable to govern without support from rivals.

Since then, France has seen a succession of minority governments that have struggled to pass legislation and survive confidence votes.

Gabriel Attal stepped down as prime minister in September 2024, followed by Barnier’s ouster in December, and now Bayrou’s downfall in September 2025.

What Macron could do next

With Bayrou’s resignation imminent, Macron must act swiftly to prevent further instability. According to the constitution, Bayrou will remain in a caretaker capacity until the president names a new prime minister.

Macron’s office has indicated that this decision will be announced “in the coming days.”

The president’s choices are limited and politically fraught:

Appoint another prime minister?

Macron could select a candidate from within his own ranks, such as Defence Minister Sébastien Lecornu, whose name has been mentioned in political circles.

However, appointing someone closely associated with the current government risks appearing out of touch with public anger and could quickly lead to another collapse.

Form a cross-party arrangement?

Some analysts have suggested that Macron might attempt to form a minority government led by a figure from the Socialist Party.

This would require a “non-aggression pact” in which the Socialists agree not to topple the government while pursuing their own agenda.

Their policy goals — including higher taxes on wealthy individuals and reversing Macron’s pension reform that raised the retirement age from 62 to 64 — run counter to Macron’s pro-business platform.

Call another snap election?

Macron has the constitutional power to dissolve parliament and call new elections.

Current polling, however, suggests this would strengthen the National Rally’s position as the largest political force, while further weakening Macron’s coalition.

Marine Le Pen has openly urged Macron to trigger what she calls an “ultra-fast dissolution” and has pledged to step aside personally if doing so would secure a victory for her party.

“A big country like France cannot live with a paper government, especially in a tormented and dangerous world,” Le Pen said.

Resignation by the president himself is not on the table, as there is no constitutional mechanism to compel it. Macron has repeatedly stated his intention to remain in office until his term concludes in 2027.

What this means for France’s budget crisis

Financial markets and international observers are closely watching France’s next steps as the country grapples with high public debt, sluggish growth, and rising borrowing costs.

France’s persistent deficits have sparked concern among investors about the sustainability of its debt load and the potential for a downgrade in its credit rating.

The austerity measures proposed by Bayrou were aimed at restoring confidence in France’s fiscal management, but their rejection now leaves uncertainty about how the government will meet its budgetary obligations.

Fitch Ratings will review France’s credit rating on September 12. A downgrade is possible if the crisis deepens.

Public backlash to reforms is a recurring theme in French politics.

Macron’s decision in 2023 to increase the retirement age to 64 triggered widespread strikes and protests that paralysed parts of the country for months.

What this means for France’s role in global affairs

Macron has been a leading advocate for deeper European Union integration, particularly in the areas of defence and strategic autonomy.

France has played a key role in efforts to coordinate military support for Ukraine in its war against Russia. Macron has been instrumental in promoting the idea of a European defence-industrial base that can reduce reliance on US-made weapons and equipment.

With the government in disarray, these initiatives may face delays or diminished political backing.

Other EU member states, particularly in Central and Northern Europe, have been sceptical of Macron’s approach, preferring to procure defence equipment directly from the United States rather than invest in long-term European projects.

The uncertainty also comes at a time when US President Donald Trump’s shifting foreign policy priorities are complicating transatlantic coordination on security matters.

Despite these challenges, Macron is expected to continue focusing on international diplomacy, where presidential authority remains strong.

Over the next two years, his agenda is likely to include rallying support for Ukraine through the Coalition of the Willing, using the upcoming United Nations General Assembly to push for recognition of a Palestinian state while also deepening strategic partnerships with countries in Asia, and collaborating with Germany and the United Kingdom to reimpose snapback sanctions on Iran.

What France’s history tells us

The current crisis has drawn comparisons to the instability that preceded the establishment of the Fifth Republic in 1958.

The constitution created by Charles de Gaulle was designed to prevent the frequent government collapses that characterised earlier periods of French history by granting the president extensive powers and aligning them with a supportive parliamentary majority.

Macron’s situation represents a reversal of that intended stability. With the parliament deeply divided and coalition-building not a traditional feature of French politics, governance has become nearly impossible.

According to Reuters, some political figures have begun calling for the creation of a Sixth Republic, which would entail constitutional reforms to shift toward a more parliamentary system.

The comparison to 1969 has also been raised, when de Gaulle attempted to regain control through a national referendum.

After losing the vote, de Gaulle resigned the following day.

While Macron has floated the idea of referendums in past speeches, there is no indication he is considering stepping down.

France has a long history of popular uprisings, and public discontent has been rising amid the ongoing cost-of-living crisis.

The Yellow Vest movement of 2018-2019 remains a vivid reminder of how quickly economic grievances can erupt into nationwide protests.

With inflation still affecting households and social services under pressure, there are concerns that new demonstrations could emerge if political paralysis continues.

On September 10, the grassroots Bloquons Tout (“Let’s block everything”) movement, which has grown on social media is planning nationwide protests.

And on September 18, trade unions are due to hold strikes and protests.

Also Watch:

In the immediate term, Macron must focus on naming a successor to Bayrou and assembling a functioning government.

Unless significant political realignment occurs, France may remain trapped in a cycle of short-lived governments and recurring crises — a scenario not seen since before the Fifth Republic was established more than six decades ago.

With inputs from agencies

Go to Source