7 things to expect from Trump-Putin Alaska summit

The world is focused on what could be the most important US-Russia summit in years as President Donald Trump and President Vladimir Putin get ready to meet in Alaska.

As the conflict in Ukraine enters its fourth year, there are many hopes and concerns about whether the negotiations will result in a breakthrough or just deepen current divisions.

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The agenda is as broad as it is controversial, ranging from possible ceasefires to geopolitical trade-offs and possible business agreements.

A ceasefire

The primary goal of the Alaska summit is to advocate for a cease-fire in the Ukraine war. Trump is seeking a ceasefire to showcase his peacemaking credentials, and Putin may be open given Moscow’s rising economic pressures.

Land swaps

Any deal may implicitly accept that Russia controls around one-fifth of Ukrainian land. Trump proposed the concept of land exchanges, which he subsequently modified, saying the objective would be to “get some territory back for Ukraine.” Analysts believe Putin may demand complete control of Donbas and Ukrainian disengagement from the remaining areas in exchange for minimal territorial concessions.

Russia’s battlefield gains

Russia controls about a fifth of Ukraine and is demanding more land, including the rest of Donetsk, in exchange for a ceasefire, an offer which Kyiv rejects. Ukraine is open to a truce along current frontlines, with the fate of occupied territories deferred to future talks, possibly decades away.

Security guarantees for Ukraine

Ukraine rejects neutrality and demilitarisation and seeks strong security guarantees. Although specifics are yet unknown, Trump seems amenable to US engagement in the European reassurance force that France has suggested.

Nato blocked for Ukraine

One of the key demands which Russia has is that Ukraine drops its ambition to join Nato. Proposals under discussion may involve a formal or informal halt to Nato expansion concerning Ukraine.

Another round of talks

Despite Zelenskyy’s exclusion from the Alaska summit, Trump is eager to meet with Putin and Zelenskyy in a trilateral setting after the summit, possibly along with European leaders.

Business agreements

Putin’s delegation includes economic and investment envoys, which suggests that business deals, possibly involving access to Russian minerals, could be on the table. There may also be talks about the New START nuclear treaty, which will end in February 2026.