Last Updated:
Poland sees Ukraine’s fight as its own shield. If Kyiv falls, Warsaw fears it will be next, with Russia testing NATO’s unity and pushing Europe closer to open conflict
For decades, Poland lived under the shadow of Moscow, denied independence until 1989. Today, as Russian aircraft breach its airspace, and Russian troops press deeper into Ukraine, the sense of déjà vu is inescapable.
The spectre of war has returned to haunt Europe. For Poland—a country whose geography has long made it a battlefield between empires—the stakes feel chillingly familiar. Recent reports of Russian aircraft breaching Polish airspace have triggered a national reckoning: Is Poland now closer to direct conflict than at any point since the World War II?
Recommended Stories
This question is not just about one incident of a border violation. It is about the historical scars Poland carries, its role as a frontline state in Europe’s wars, its steadfast support for Ukraine, and its obligations as a member of NATO.
Let’s understand why the breach of its skies has shaken Warsaw and Europe alike.
What Do You Know About Poland’s History?
Poland’s history is one of endurance against foreign domination. Sitting at the crossroads of Central and Eastern Europe, the country has often been carved, partitioned, and invaded by stronger neighbours. In the 18th century, Poland ceased to exist as an independent state after being divided between Prussia, Austria, and Russia. It returned to the map only after World War I.
But it was World War II that left the deepest scars. In 1939, Nazi Germany invaded Poland from the West, and just over two weeks later, the Soviet Union attacked it from the east under the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. For six brutal years, Poland was ravaged by both regimes—its people massacred, its cities destroyed, and its Jewish community almost annihilated in the Holocaust. When the war ended, Poland did not regain true independence but fell under the Soviet sphere, remaining behind the Iron Curtain until 1989.
For Poland, Russia has never been just a neighbour—it has been an existential threat. This memory is deeply embedded in Polish politics and society. Tuesday’s airspace breach is therefore not treated as an isolated violation but as an echo of history.
“I want to emphasise very strongly that there is no reason to claim we’re on the brink of war, but there is no doubt that this provocation (by Russia) exceeds the existing boundaries and is incomparably more dangerous from Poland’s point of view than all the others,” Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on Wednesday, according to a translation from the BBC. “This situation brings us the closest we have been to open conflict since World War II,” he added.
Russia’s Modern Shadow Over Poland
The fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 gave Poland its long-sought sovereignty. But Moscow’s influence did not vanish. Russia has remained determined to keep Eastern Europe under its sway, and Poland—firmly choosing the West—became a thorn in Moscow’s side.
When Poland joined NATO in 1999 and the European Union in 2004, it was a decisive rejection of Russian dominance. Since then, Poland has been one of NATO’s most vocal advocates for a strong deterrent against Russia. Its fears are not hypothetical. The 2008 war in Georgia, the annexation of Crimea in 2014, and finally the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 have confirmed Warsaw’s suspicions: Russia remains willing to redraw borders by force.
Poland has therefore been among the loudest voices pushing NATO to strengthen its eastern flank. It hosts thousands of allied troops, advanced missile defence systems, and conducts regular joint drills with American forces. But Moscow continues to test its patience, both with disinformation campaigns and with military provocations such as the airspace breach.
What Is Poland’s Stand On The Ukraine War?
Since the first day of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Poland has stood as Kyiv’s staunchest ally. No other European country has taken in as many Ukrainian refugees— roughly 1.5 million have crossed the border seeking safety. Poland has also supplied Ukraine with weapons, ammunition, tanks, and logistical support, often well ahead of other European partners.
Warsaw views Ukraine’s survival as critical to its own security. If Russia succeeds in crushing Kyiv, Poland would become the next frontline state. In fact, many in Warsaw argue that Russia would not stop at Ukraine but would continue testing NATO’s unity, possibly through hybrid attacks or probing incursions.
This explains why Poland has consistently pressed for tougher sanctions on Moscow, more military aid to Kyiv, and a stronger NATO presence in Eastern Europe. Its role as Ukraine’s lifeline has only deepened its confrontation with Russia, making incidents like the airspace violation appear less like accidents and more like deliberate provocations.
Poland’s NATO’s Shield, And Its Limits
Poland’s membership in NATO is its greatest guarantee of security. Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty states that an attack on one member is an attack on all. In theory, this means that if Russia were to attack Poland, it would trigger a collective defence response from all 31 NATO countries, including the United States.
This mutual defence clause is a powerful deterrent. But the situation is not always straightforward. Not every incident automatically qualifies as an Article 5 trigger. Border violations, drone crashes, or airspace breaches exist in a grey zone—serious, but not necessarily enough to unleash all-out war.
Moscow knows this. By probing NATO’s borders, Russia seeks to test the alliance’s resolve without crossing the line into open conflict. For Poland, however, even limited provocations feel intolerable given its history. NATO’s deterrence is strong, but Poland still fears being the testing ground for Russia’s strategy of escalation without war.
The Breach And Its Fallout
When Russian aircraft reportedly entered Polish airspace on Tuesday, it immediately raised alarms in Warsaw. Scrambling fighter jets and summoning military briefings, Poland treated it as a potential escalation. The message from Warsaw was clear: Poland will not tolerate violations of its sovereignty.
But the larger question looms—what if such incidents become routine? If Moscow repeatedly tests Poland’s defences, Warsaw might one day be forced to respond more aggressively, raising the risk of direct clashes. For a country that remembers being invaded from both east and west, any breach of its borders triggers deep alarm.
Poland’s Role As NATO’s Eastern Bulwark
Today, Poland is not just another NATO member. It is the cornerstone of the alliance’s eastern flank. Its geography makes it vital—stretching from the Baltic Sea to the Carpathian Mountains, Poland forms a bridge between Western Europe and the vulnerable Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia.
The Suwałki Gap, a narrow stretch of land between Poland and Lithuania, is considered NATO’s most vulnerable point. If Russia ever seized it, the Baltic states could be cut off from the rest of the alliance. This makes Poland’s military readiness essential for the security of the entire region.
Over the past decade, Poland has invested heavily in modernising its forces, buying American F-35 fighter jets, Abrams tanks, and advanced air defence systems. It has also pushed NATO to permanently station more troops on its soil. Poland sees itself not just as a protected state but as Europe’s frontline defender.
Is This The Closest To Open Conflict Since World War II?
The fear in Poland is not merely theoretical. The memory of 1939—the year it was carved up between Germany and the Soviet Union—remains alive. For decades, Poland lived under the shadow of Moscow, denied independence until 1989. Today, as Russian aircraft cross into its skies and Russian troops press deeper into Ukraine, the sense of déjà vu is inescapable.
Is Poland truly on the brink of open conflict? Not necessarily—NATO’s deterrence still holds, and Moscow knows that attacking Poland directly would trigger catastrophic consequences. But Warsaw is undeniably closer to confrontation than it has been in decades. The airspace violation was not just a breach of territory but a reminder of how thin the line is between provocation and escalation.
For Poland, the breach underscores a sobering reality: history is never far away. The ghosts of 1939 linger, and every Russian move carries echoes of the past. Whether conflict can be avoided depends on both NATO’s resolve and Moscow’s calculations. But for the first time since World War II, the possibility of open war touching Polish soil does not feel unthinkable.
What Lies Ahead?
Poland’s path forward is fraught with challenges. It must continue to strengthen its defences, deepen NATO integration, and maintain unwavering support for Ukraine. At the same time, it must prepare for a prolonged period of tension, where Russia’s provocations may become routine.
The question is not whether Poland fears war—it always has. The question is whether Poland, through its alliances and resilience, can prevent history from repeating itself. With Russian jets already crossing into its skies, the answer may shape the future of Europe.
About the Author
Shilpy Bisht, Deputy News Editor at News18, writes and edits national, world and business stories. She started off as a print journalist, and then transitioned to online, in her 12 years of experience. Her prev…Read More
Shilpy Bisht, Deputy News Editor at News18, writes and edits national, world and business stories. She started off as a print journalist, and then transitioned to online, in her 12 years of experience. Her prev… Read More
September 11, 2025, 13:12 IST
Loading comments…
Scan the QR code to download the News18 app and enjoy a seamless news experience anytime, anywhere
 "From governance to tourism, how Gen-Z protests have damaged Nepal")
