Last Updated:
Ishiba’s resignation will trigger a leadership race in LDP. Since the ruling coalition has lost its majorities in both chambers, LDP president is no longer guaranteed to become PM
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation on Sunday. (AP File)
With Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announcing his resignation, all eyes are now on who will next steer the world’s fourth-largest economy.
The process to pick Japan’s next leader is more complicated than before as Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has ruled Japan for most of the post-war period, and its junior coalition partner lost their majorities in both houses of parliament during his tenure.
Recommended Stories
The LDP president is no longer guaranteed to become premier. There is a slim possibility an opposition party leader takes the helm of the world’s fourth-largest economy.
KEY QUESTION: WHY DID ISHIBA RESIGN?
Ishiba had taken the helm of the long-dominant LDP in October last year and has since lost a majority in both houses of the Parliament. He had been resisting demands to step down from right-wing opponents within his own party for over a month. His decision to offer resignation comes a day before his Liberation Democratic Party will decide whether to hold an early leadership election — a virtual no-confidence motion against him if approved, news agency AP reported.
Public broadcaster NHK said that the Prime Minister made the decision to avoid a split in the party, while the Asahi Shimbun daily said that Ishiba was unable to withstand the growing calls for his resignation. Former prime minister and current farm minister reportedly called on Ishiba on Saturday night to urge him to step down voluntarily. Last week, four senior LDP officials, including the party’s number two, Hiroshi Moriyama, offered to resign. LDP lawmakers and local officials in Japan who want a new party leader will submit a request on Monday. A leadership election will take place if enough members support it, AFP reported.
WHAT NEXT? THE PROCEDURE
Party leadership race
According to Reuters, first, the LDP must pick a new president to replace Ishiba.
In the last party leadership race in September 2024, candidates needed to secure 20 nominations from the party’s lawmakers to be eligible to run.
Candidates will embark on a period of debates and campaigns across Japan culminating in a vote by lawmakers and rank-and-file party members. In the last race, there were nine contenders, and Ishiba won in a run-off.
LDP vote
Based on the last leadership race, each lawmaker has a vote with an equal number distributed among the rank-and-file members in the first round of voting.
A candidate securing a simple majority in that poll becomes party leader. If no one secures a majority, a run-off vote follows between the two candidates with the most votes.
In the second round, each lawmaker again gets one vote, but the share of the rank-and-file drops to 47 votes, one for each of Japan’s prefectures.
In the unlikely event of a tie, the winner will be decided by lot. That has never happened in a leadership contest, but was used in 2010 to decide who would chair the LDP’s upper house caucus, said Reuters.
Parliament votes
Since the party does not have a majority in either house, it is not guaranteed that the LDP president will become prime minister.
In 1994, the LDP formed a three-way alliance with its arch rival, the Japan Socialist Party and a smaller startup party to regain power, having socialist leader Tomiichi Murayama elected as prime minister.
Based on historical precedent, the more-powerful lower house will first vote on their choice for prime minister. Lawmakers can nominate any candidates from the chamber, and historically the leaders of opposition parties have been put forward for the vote.
Any candidate who secures a simple majority in the first round wins approval. If no one secures a majority, a run-off poll follows, between the two candidates with the most votes.
Voting then passes to the upper house, where a similar process begins, although only members of the lower house are eligible to be prime minister.
If there is a disagreement between the houses, the choice of the lower house prevails. This happened in 2008 when the lower house chose the LDP candidate and the upper house picked an opposition candidate.
The new prime minister may also call a snap general election to seek a national mandate, said Reuters.
THE CONTENDERS
Here is a list of lawmakers who might throw their hats in the ring, according to Reuters:
Ruling – Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)
SANAE TAKAICHI, 64: If chosen, Takaichi would be Japan’s first female prime minister. A party veteran who has held a variety of roles, including economic security and internal affairs minister, she lost to Ishiba in the LDP leadership race in a run-off vote last year.
Known for conservative positions such as revising the pacifist postwar constitution, Takaichi is a regular visitor to the Yasukuni shrine to honour Japan’s war dead, viewed by some Asian neighbours as a symbol of past militarism.
Takaichi stands out for her vocal opposition to the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hikes and her calls to ramp up spending to boost the fragile economy.
SHINJIRO KOIZUMI, 44: Heir to a political dynasty with a hand in governing Japan for more than a century, Koizumi would become its youngest prime minister in the modern era.
Koizumi ran in the last year’s party leadership race, presenting himself as a reformer able to restore public trust in a scandal-hit party.
Unlike Takaichi, who left government after her defeat in that contest, the Columbia University-educated Koizumi stayed close to Ishiba as his agriculture minister, overseeing a widely publicised attempt to curb soaring rice prices.
In his only other cabinet post, as environment minister, Koizumi called for Japan to get rid of nuclear reactors in 2019. He faced ridicule that year for remarks that climate policy needed to be “cool” and “sexy”. Little is known about his views on economic policy, including on the BOJ.
YOSHIMASA HAYASHI, 64: Hayashi has been Japan’s chief cabinet secretary, a pivotal job that includes being top government spokesperson, since December 2023 under then-premier Fumio Kishida and Ishiba.
He has held a variety of portfolios, including defence, foreign and agriculture minister, often being tapped as a pinch-hitter following an incumbent’s resignation.
A fluent English speaker, Hayashi worked for trading house Mitsui & Co., studied at the Harvard Kennedy School and was a staffer for U.S. Representative Stephen Neal and Senator William Roth Jr.
Hayashi ran for the LDP leadership race in 2012 and 2024. He has repeatedly called for respecting the BOJ’s independence on monetary policy.
Opposition – Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan
YOSHIHIKO NODA, 68: Former Prime Minister Noda is the leader of the biggest opposition group, the centre-left Constitutional Democrats.
As premier from 2011 to 2012, he worked with the LDP to push through legislation to double Japan’s consumption tax to 10% to help curb bulging public debt – earning a reputation as a fiscal hawk. The consumption tax was raised to 10% in 2019 for most items.
In the upper house election in July, Noda reversed course and called for a temporary cut to the consumption tax for food items. He has repeatedly called for phasing out the BOJ’s massive stimulus.
Opposition – Democratic Party for the People
YUICHIRO TAMAKI, 56: Tamaki’s centre-right party is one of the fastest-growing in recent elections.
A former finance ministry bureaucrat, Tamaki co-founded the Democratic Party for the People in 2018 and advocates increasing people’s take-home pay by expanding tax exemptions and slashing the consumption tax.
He supports boosting defence capabilities, stricter regulations for foreigners’ land acquisition and constructing more nuclear power plants.
Tamaki has called on the BOJ to be cautious about phasing out stimulus, saying it should wait until real wages turn positive and help underpin consumption.
With Reuters, AP, AFP Inputs
About the Author
The News Desk is a team of passionate editors and writers who break and analyse the most important events unfolding in India and abroad. From live updates to exclusive reports to in-depth explainers, the Desk d…Read More
The News Desk is a team of passionate editors and writers who break and analyse the most important events unfolding in India and abroad. From live updates to exclusive reports to in-depth explainers, the Desk d… Read More
September 07, 2025, 15:54 IST
Loading comments…
Read More
