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India’s rain story for 2025 isn’t over. Bay of Bengal systems and a strongly negative Indian Ocean Dipole are keeping central and peninsular regions wetter for longer.
How Long Can India’s Skies Stay Open? The Rainy Season’s Surprising Next Act
Mid-September usually signals the winding down of India’s southwest monsoon, but this year the skies are staying stubbornly wet. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), a series of low-pressure systems in the Bay of Bengal is delaying the monsoon’s retreat and triggering fresh bursts of rain across central and peninsular India.
Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, and east Rajasthan have all been flagged for new spells of heavy rain. At the same time, parts of northwest India such as Rajasthan and Punjab are slowly beginning to dry out, a sign that the monsoon withdrawal has started in pockets even as other regions keep getting drenched.
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IMD’s cumulative data shows the June-to-mid-September rainfall running slightly above the long-period average nationwide. Late-season surges have topped up totals in western and central states, and extended-range forecasts keep pointing to more Bay-driven systems into late September.
Why the Showers Are Hanging On
Two big oceanic drivers are behind this lingering wet spell.
- ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) is neutral. International forecasting centres say the Pacific is sitting in a neutral state, with a slight tilt toward La Niña later in the year. While La Niña’s influence will matter more for winter weather, the current neutral conditions aren’t suppressing the late-season monsoon.
- The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is strongly negative. Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology notes that the IOD index has stayed below the negative threshold for weeks. A negative IOD often enhances convection over the eastern Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal, helping to generate the very low-pressure systems that are fuelling these September rains.
Together, these patterns explain why the monsoon is lingering and why meteorologists expect more on-and-off downpours before the southwest monsoon finally retreats.
What Happens After the Southwest Monsoon
The June–September monsoon is India’s main rainmaker, but the weather narrative doesn’t stop when it withdraws.
- Late September to Early October:Bay of Bengal systems will keep triggering rain across central and peninsular India even as the northwest dries out. Expect patchy but sometimes intense spells in Maharashtra, Odisha, and parts of Madhya Pradesh.
- October:The southwest monsoon retreats further, but post-monsoon showers continue along the east coast and interior peninsular regions. This is also when easterly winds start to favour the south, setting up for the next phase.
- November to December:The northeast monsoon takes centre stage, delivering Tamil Nadu, south coastal Andhra, and parts of Kerala their main rainy season. The Bay of Bengal can also spawn the occasional cyclone or depression, bringing heavy rain to the east coast.
In short, the all-India monsoon is winding down, but significant rainfall will continue for select regions well into the year’s final quarter.
Region-by-Region Outlook
- Northwest & West (Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Kutch):Expect a steady retreat and long dry spells through October, with only brief western-disturbance showers later.
- Central Belt (Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat):One or two late Bay-fed bursts are still likely in late September or early October, but the trend is toward gradual drying.
- East & East Coast (Odisha, coastal Andhra, West Bengal):Post-monsoon Bay systems can still bring heavy rain in October, and occasional cyclonic storms are possible.
- South Peninsula (Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, south Andhra, parts of Kerala):October through December is peak northeast-monsoon time, so expect frequent showers and the chance of intense rain events.
- Northeast:Rain can remain frequent into October, with flood risk if a Bay low stalls over the region.
Preparing for the Months Ahead
Cities in central and eastern India should keep drainage systems clear and flood-response plans ready until early October. Farmers in these regions might delay harvesting paddy or other crops if a Bay of Bengal low is predicted.
For Tamil Nadu and adjoining states, October and November are the real wet season, so authorities and residents should review cyclone safety measures and water-management plans now. Meanwhile, northwest India can start planning for a drier rabi season with careful soil-moisture management.
India’s rain story for 2025 isn’t over. The southwest monsoon is retreating in fits and starts, but Bay of Bengal systems and a strongly negative Indian Ocean Dipole are keeping central and peninsular regions wetter for longer.
As October arrives, the focus will shift to the post-monsoon showers of the east coast and the full onset of the northeast monsoon in the south. Nationwide, heavy downpours will become more localized, but meaningful rain will continue in phases right through the end of the year.
Whether you’re a farmer planning harvests, a city official managing drainage, or a traveller looking for rain-washed landscapes, keep an eye on IMD’s weekly forecasts. The monsoon may be in retreat, but for large parts of India, the sound of rain is far from finished.
September 19, 2025, 10:54 IST
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