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China has begun construction of a massive hydropower dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo River, sparking concerns in India that Beijing could control water flows to Arunachal Pradesh.
The Siang River in Arunachal Pradesh. (Reuters)
China’s plans to create a mega dam in Tibet have sparked concerns in India over reduced water flows on the Brahmaputra river by up to 85% during the dry season, according to four sources familiar with the matter and a government analysis seen by Reuters.
According to Xinhua news agency, China has officially begun construction of one of the world’s largest hydropower dams on the Yarlung Tsangpo River, as the Brahmaputra is known in Tibet. The planned dam will include five massive hydroelectric stations and is expected to generate close to 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually.
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While China says the project is important for its clean energy goals, India is concerned that its construction could give China the ability to control the volume and timing of water entering India. It can either release large water volumes, flooding Arunachal Pradesh and Assam, or restrict flow that can cause droughts.
India has always highlighted concerns over the construction of the Chinese dam on the Brahmaputra River. These concerns were recently shared by External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar to his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, who came to India on a three-day visit last week.
India’s Concerns Over Chinese Dam
According to the Reuters report, China’s plans have prompted India to fast-track plans to create its own dam to mitigate the effects. The Indian government had been considering projects since the early 2000s to control water flows from Tibet’s Angsi Glacier, which sustains more than 100 million people downstream in China, India and Bangladesh.
However, these plans were met with strong resistance from residents of Arunachal Pradesh, which China claims, who shared concerns that their villages would be submerged after the creation of any dam. China’s plans have now triggered concerns in New Delhi that Beijing could weaponise its control over the Brahmaputra River. The river’s flow into India begins through Arunachal Pradesh, where it is known as the Siang.
In May, India’s largest hydropower company in May moved survey materials under armed police protection near a prospective site near the 11,000 MW Upper Siang Multipurpose Storage Dam. Two sources informed that senior Indian officials have been holding meetings about accelerated construction this year, including one organised by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s office.
The government analysis quoted by Reuters built on past work conducted by Indian government-affiliated institutions like the Central Water Commission. According to the sources and the document, India believes that the Chinese dam will allow Beijing to divert as much as 40 billion cubic meters of water, or just over a third of what is received annually at a key border point.
The impact of such a measure would be particularly felt during non-monsoon months, where temperatures would rise and lands become barren across several parts of India. New Delhi’s Upper Siang project is expected to alleviate that with its projected 14 BCM of storage capacity, allowing it to release water during the dry season.
The Impact Of India’s Dam
India’s plans for a dam in Arunachal Pradesh is reportedly costing Rs 1.5 trillion, with a 9.2 billion cubic metre reservoir to regulate water flow and buffer against China’s releases, as the Brahmaputra River is a lifeline for millions across Arunachal Pradesh and Assam.
India’s project can mitigate any move by China to release devastating amounts of water downstream if the dam is at its minimum drawdown level – where water is stored at less than 50% of its height. Two sources said India is considering a proposal to keep 30% of its dam empty at any time to account for unexpected surges.
At the same time, if the Indian dam is not built, Assam’s Guwahati, which is dependent on water-intensive industry and farming, would see a reduction in supply of 11%, according to the sources and the document.
Unlike its now-suspended agreement with Pakistan over the Indus, India has no comprehensive water treaty with China. The lack of a formal legal framework makes sustained cooperation uncertain and more susceptible to mistrust.
Local Resistance
Meanwhile, India’s plans to construct its own dams has been met with strong resistance from locals in Arunachal Pradesh due to concerns over displacement, loss of ancestral land and environmental degradation.
In May, angry locals attacked workers who moved surveying materials near the village of Parong, damaging their machinery, destroying a bridge and looting the tents of police sent to guard the operation. Several of them are members of Arunachal’s Adi community, who depend on paddy, orange, and sweet lime farming in the area.
At least 16 Adi villages are likely to be lost to the storage area of the dam, directly affecting an estimated 10,000 people, two sources told Reuters, while an estimated 100,000 people are expected to be impacted by the creation of the dam. Hence, villagers are highly against the creation of the dam, even if the state government supports the initiative.
Furthermore, even if the construction of the Indian project is green-lit, it could take a decade to build after breaking ground, according to four of the sources. That means the project would likely be completed after China’s project, potentially leaving India vulnerable during construction if Beijing suddenly releases water during the monsoon season.
(with Reuters inputs)
About the Author
Aveek Banerjee is a Senior Sub Editor at News18. Based in Noida with a Master’s in Global Studies, Aveek has more than three years of experience in digital media and news curation, specialising in international…Read More
Aveek Banerjee is a Senior Sub Editor at News18. Based in Noida with a Master’s in Global Studies, Aveek has more than three years of experience in digital media and news curation, specialising in international… Read More
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