Auto major Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles (TMPV) Q3 performance is expected to show a sharp divergence between its India passenger vehicle (PV) business and its global luxury arm, Jaguar Land Rover (JLR).
While domestic PV volumes are seen holding up on festive demand and recent launches, consolidated earnings are likely to remain under pressure due to a production hit and margin stress at JLR following a cyber-attack incident. Brokerages broadly expect weak consolidated profitability, with losses in some estimates, even as India PV trends remain comparatively steady.
While Nuvama Institutional Equities, YES Securities and JM Financial see net losses up in Q3FY26 to ₹4,549 crore, Deven Choksey Research expects 18 per cent year-over-year net profit growth. Revenue may drop up to 9 per cent, highest among its peers.
The company will announce its earnings on Thursday, February 5.
Here’s what brokerage estimates say on these 5 key parameters:
1) PAT
— Nuvama Institutional Equities expects adjusted net losses of ₹3,701 crore largely reflecting the impact of weaker JLR profitability.
— YES Securities pegs the net loss at ₹2,208 crore weighed down by sharp YoY decline in JLR earnings.
— JM Financial is the most cautious, forecasting net losses of ₹4,549 crore.
— Deven Choksey Research is the only brokerage among the four which estimates TMPV to report a profit, albeit 18 per cent lower on YoY basis at ₹446 crore.
2) Revenues
— Nuvama estimates consolidated revenues at ₹69,023 crore, down 27 per cent YoY and 5 per cent QoQ, as JLR production disruptions offset robust India PV growth.
— YES Securities sees revenue at ₹68,447 crore, down 5.4 per cent QoQ, with a steep YoY decline driven by JLR.
— JM Financial expects revenues of ₹67,094 crore, down 29 per cent YoY and 8.3 per cent QoQ.
— Deven Choksey Research pegs PV revenues at ₹10,218 crore, down 9.3 per cent YoY and 41.2 per cent QoQ.
3) EBITDA
Nuvama forecasts EBITDA of just ₹374 crore, down 97 per cent YoY, citing higher variable marketing expenses (VME) and lower operating leverage at JLR.
— YES Securities estimates EBITDA at ₹1,490 crore, with partial recovery in margins QoQ.
— JM Financial expects EBITDA losses of ₹794 crore, reflecting continued stress at JLR.
— Deven Choksey Research estimates PV EBITDA at ₹1,174 crore, down 5.4 per cent YoY.
4) EBITDA margin
— Nuvama expects EBITDA margin to compress sharply to 0.5 per cent, down 1,275 bps YoY and 248 bps QoQ, led by weak JLR scale and higher costs.
— YES Securities sees consolidated EBITDA margins recovering modestly to around 2.2 per cent, though still well below historical levels due to JLR headwinds.
5) Volume
Deven Choksey Research estimates PV volumes at 3,60,472 units, up 6 per cent YoY and a sharp 71.2 per cent QoQ, supported by festive demand, GST 2.0-led revival and launches such as the Sierra.
6) Key monitorables
JLR demand and production outlook post the cyber-attack disruption remains key monitorables, said both Nuvama and JM Financial.
Meanwhile, margin recovery trajectory at JLR, including the pace of volume ramp-up and VME normalization also remain in focus, opines YES Securities.
