Global oil prices began the week with only marginal movement as traders evaluated the consequences of recent Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries, while also keeping an eye on US fuel demand trends. The market remained cautious, reflecting both geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty.
In early Asian trading on Monday, Brent crude futures rose slightly by 3 cents to settle at $67.02 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 8 cents, reaching $62.77 per barrel reported Reuters. Both benchmarks advanced by more than 1 per cent the previous week, largely fuelled by concerns over escalating attacks on Russian oil infrastructure.
Ukraine’s strikes targeted key energy facilities, including the Primorsk oil export terminal and the Kirishinefteorgsintez refinery. Analysts at JPMorgan, led by Natasha Kaneva, noted that “the attack suggests a growing willingness to disrupt international oil markets, which has the potential to add upside pressure on oil prices.”
Key Russian Facilities Under Threat
The Primorsk terminal, situated in western Russia, has the capacity to load around one million barrels of crude per day, making it a critical hub for the country’s exports. Meanwhile, the Kirishi refinery, operated by Surgutneftegaz, processes approximately 17.7 million metric tonnes annually (equivalent to 355,000 barrels per day), accounting for about 6.4 per cent of Russia’s refining capacity.
Despite the strikes, Russian officials signalled that some operations remain stable. The governor of Bashkortostan, Radiy Khabirov, confirmed on Saturday that production in his region would continue despite the weekend drone attack.
Geopolitical Pressures Mount
The strikes on Russian energy assets coincide with mounting political pressure from Washington. US President Donald Trump reiterated his willingness to impose further sanctions on Moscow, criticising European countries for continuing to purchase Russian oil. “Europe is buying oil from Russia. I don’t want them to buy oil,” Trump told reporters, adding that sanctions by European allies were not “tough enough” compared to US measures.
Alongside sanctions rhetoric, Washington has also pressed allies to impose tariffs on imports from China, citing Beijing’s energy dealings with Moscow. Trade negotiations between the US and China, which began in Madrid on Sunday, are now being closely watched by investors.
US Economic Signals in Focus
Beyond geopolitical developments, traders are also factoring in the health of the US economy. Data from last week highlighted slower job creation coupled with rising inflation, raising concerns about the pace of growth in the world’s largest crude consumer. The Federal Reserve is expected to announce an interest rate cut following its policy meeting scheduled for September 16–17.
With oil prices holding steady, the market appears torn between upward pressures from supply risks linked to Russian disruptions and downward pressures from a potentially cooling US economy.
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