Gold markets are expected to enter a phase of consolidation in the coming week as traders weigh a combination of economic indicators, monetary policy commentary, and geopolitical developments, analysts said over the weekend.
Market participants will keep a close watch on US housing data, consumer price inflation numbers from the UK and Eurozone, as well as provisional Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings from major economies, reported PTI.
In addition, speeches from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium are anticipated to provide further direction for bullion prices.
Focus Shifts to US Economic Data and Central Banks
According to Pranav Mer, Vice President, EBG – Commodity & Currency Research at JM Financial Services, the spotlight in the coming days will be firmly on US macroeconomic data and the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, where prospects of an interest rate cut are under discussion.
“Gold prices are likely to see some consolidation/correction in the coming week as focus now remains on the incoming US macroeconomic data and the Federal Reserve’s meeting next month with interest rate cuts in focus,” Mer said.
He added that safe-haven appetite has softened following the extension of trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing by another 90 days. Meanwhile, recent talks between the US and Russia on ending the war in Ukraine showed some progress but concluded without any breakthrough.
Mer pointed out that while weaker US economic indicators have flagged a slowdown in activity, firmer producer and import price data have sustained inflation worries, leaving Fed policymakers divided over the timing of a rate cut.
Gold Futures Retreat as Tariff Concerns Ease
Gold futures posted a decline last week, with the October contract on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) slipping by Rs 1,648 per 10 grams – a fall of nearly 2 per cent.
Prathamesh Mallya, DVP-Research, Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies at Angel One, said: “Gold prices retreated last week as futures on the MCX slipped nearly 2 per cent.” He noted that the contract fell from highs of Rs 1,02,000 to lows of Rs 1,00,000 per 10 grams after US President Donald Trump clarified that gold imports into the US would not be subjected to tariffs, curbing upside momentum.
Looking ahead, Mallya said that developments around US-Russia discussions would be vital. “The possibility of increased tariffs on India will dent the macros and in turn lift gold prices in the week ahead,” he added.
In global markets, Comex gold futures for December delivery ended lower at $3,382.60 per ounce in New York on Saturday.
Geopolitics, Dollar Trends
Manav Modi, Analyst – Precious Metal Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, highlighted that bullion lost ground last week as safe-haven demand eased in the wake of easing geopolitical tensions.
“The White House clarified that reports of US tariffs on Swiss gold were inaccurate, reversing a brief price rally that had been driven by confusion following a Customs and Border Protection note,” Modi said. Optimism over a potential Ukraine ceasefire also gained ground after a meeting between US President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska. At the same time, the extension of the US-China tariff truce reduced risk aversion, capping safe-haven flows into gold.
However, supportive factors remain. Modi pointed to a weaker dollar and growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September as cushioning the downside. Softer inflation data has spurred dovish bets, while Treasury Secretary Bessent hinted at the possibility of a deeper 50-basis-point reduction.
Demand For Physical Gold Weak
On the demand side, Modi observed that physical gold consumption in Asia has remained muted due to persistently high prices, dampening seasonal buying trends.
Overall, analysts agree that the near-term path of gold will depend heavily on forthcoming macroeconomic releases, geopolitical signals, and policy guidance from central bankers. As investors await Powell’s Jackson Hole speech and monitor Washington-Moscow developments, bullion is set to trade in a consolidative range, reacting to shifts in both global and domestic sentiment.
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