Indian equity markets are set to begin the week on a mildly positive note, even as volatility is expected to persist amid global trade tensions, key domestic data releases and the upcoming derivatives expiry.
The BSE Sensex rang the opening bell on Monday morning near 83,100, climbing more than 250 points, as the NSE Nifty50 stood above 25,600, inching a little over 60 points, around 9:15 AM.
In the pre-open session at around 9:09 AM, the Sensex was trading at 82,906.83, up 92.12 points or 0.11 per cent. The NSE benchmark stood at 25,678.40, higher by 107.15 points or 0.42 per cent, indicating a tentative rebound after last week’s choppy movement.
Volatility Likely Amid F&O Expiry And Key Data Releases
Analysts expect heightened market swings during the week, particularly with the monthly F&O expiry scheduled for February 24.
On the domestic front, investors will closely track a series of important macroeconomic indicators. These include GDP data, government budget value, foreign exchange reserves and infrastructure output (YoY). According to Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, these releases could influence near-term market direction as participants reassess growth momentum and fiscal positioning.
Trump’s Tariff Moves Add To Global Uncertainty
Global developments remain a critical overhang. Market participants are assessing the impact of fresh tariff measures announced by US President Donald Trump following a US Supreme Court ruling on trade levies.
Trump imposed a 10 per cent tariff on several countries, including India, for a period of 150 days after the court’s verdict. A day later, the rate was increased to 15 per cent, reviving concerns over trade tensions and potential spillover effects across global markets.
In a significant blow to Trump’s economic agenda, the US Supreme Court ruled that the sweeping tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977 were illegal, stating that the president had exceeded his authority.
Investors will now evaluate how the evolving tariff framework could reshape global trade flows, risk appetite and capital movement.
Crude Oil, US-Iran Developments In Focus
Beyond trade policy, geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, along with movements in crude oil prices, are expected to influence investor sentiment.
Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments, said market participants will monitor crude price trends and global monetary signals closely. He added that India’s GDP print will be particularly important for assessing earnings prospects and broader equity positioning.
Weekly Recap: Range-Bound But Positive Bias
On a weekly basis, domestic benchmarks managed modest gains despite sharp intra-week fluctuations. The BSE Sensex advanced 187.95 points, or 0.22 per cent, while the NSE Nifty rose 100.15 points, or 0.39 per cent.
Sentiment oscillated between caution and selective optimism. Buying interest in banking, financials, power and select FMCG stocks helped counterbalance global uncertainties.
IT shares, however, remained under pressure amid persistent concerns about AI-led disruption and margin compression.
Nair noted that resilience in large-cap stocks, selective sectoral rotation and optimism surrounding India’s participation in Pax Silica contributed to the market’s positive weekly close.
Market experts believe equities may continue to move within a defined range in the short term. Liquidity flows, foreign investor activity and global risk sentiment are expected to remain key drivers.
