100% US Tariff Threat: India’s Exporters Brace For Fresh Trade Shock Over Russian Oil

I dia’s
expo te s
could
be
headi g
fo
a othe
u ce tai
phase
i
the
US
ma ket,
with
a
ew
Ame ica
legislatio
pote tially
givi g
P eside t
Do ald
T ump
the
powe
to
impose
ta iffs
of
up
to
100
pe
ce t
o
goods
f om
cou t ies
that
co ti ue
to
buy
Russia
oil
a d
gas.

The
US
Se ate
has
passed
the
bipa tisa
Li dsey
O.
G aham
Sa ctio i g
Russia
a d
I a
Act
of
2026
by
a
86-11
vote,
b i gi g
the
th eat
of
additio al
ta iffs
o
I dia
expo ts
i to
sha pe
focus,
epo ted
The
Fi a cial
Exp ess.
Howeve ,
the
legislatio
does
ot
impose
a
100
pe
ce t
ta iff
immediately.
It
still
eeds
to
clea
the
US
House
of
Rep ese tatives
a d
eceive
the
P eside t’s
sig atu e
befo e
becomi g
law.

Fo
I dia
expo te s,
though,
the
p ospect
of
a othe
ta iff
laye
comes
at
a
se sitive
time.
The
US
is
o e
of
I dia’s
most
impo ta t
expo t
ma kets,
a d
a y
sha p
i c ease
i
duties
could
make
I dia
p oducts
less
competitive
fo
Ame ica
buye s.

Why
I dia
Expo te s
A e
Wo ied

The
most
immediate
co ce
is
the
pote tial
impact
o
I dia’s
me cha dise
expo ts
to
the
US.

Citi g
Sachi
Gupta,
Chief
Rati g
Office
at
Ca eEdge
Rati gs,
media
o ga isatio
Busi ess
Today
epo ted
that
I dia
expo ts
a ou d
$80
billio
wo th
of
me cha dise
goods
to
the
Ame ica
ma ket,
i cludi g
gems
a d
jewelle y,
textiles
a d
othe
p oducts.
If
a
100
pe
ce t
ta iff
we e
imposed,
Gupta
said,
seve al
of
these
p oducts
could
become
comme cially
u viable
i
the
US
ma ket.

The
legislatio ,
howeve ,
does
ot
specify
that
eve y
I dia
p oduct
would
automatically
face
the
maximum
ta iff.
The
p oposed
ta iff
autho ity
would
give
the
US
P eside t
disc etio
ove
whethe
to
impose
additio al
duties,
which
cou t ies
to
ta get
a d
the
ate
applicable
to
them.

Gupta
also
poi ted
out
that
p oducts
such
as
pha maceuticals
a d
elect o ics
could
pote tially
be
t eated
diffe e tly
because
of
thei
impo ta ce
to
the
US
ma ket,
although
the e
is
cu e tly
o
cla ity
o
how
diffe e t
p oduct
catego ies
would
be
ha dled.

“If
it
is
i deed
100
pe
ce t,
it
would
be
ext emely
difficult
fo
I dia
expo te s
to
fi d
viable
busi ess
i
the
US
ma ket,& dquo;
he
said.

E gi ee i g
Expo te s
Al eady
Watchi g
The
Developme ts

The
p oposed
measu e
has
also
aised
co ce s
withi
I dia’s
e gi ee i g
expo t
i dust y.

The
US
is
the
la gest
ma ket
fo
I dia’s
e gi ee i g
goods,
maki g
the
secto
pa ticula ly
exposed
to
a y
additio al
ta iff
bu de .

Pa kaj
Chadha,
chai ma
of
the
E gi ee i g
Expo t
P omotio
Cou cil
(EEPC),
told
FE
that
the
legislatio
could
have
a
sig ifica t
impact
o
I dia
goods
expo ts
if
it
becomes
law.
Howeve ,
he
cautio ed
that
it
would
be
p ematu e
to
assess
the
p ecise
co seque ces
while
the
measu e
is
still
p og essi g
th ough
the
US
legislative
p ocess.

I dia’s
e gi ee i g
goods
expo ts
to
the
US
emai ed
positive
i
FY2025-26
despite
the
ta iff
measu es
imposed
du i g
the
pe iod,
Chadha
said.
A
additio al
levy,
howeve ,
could
affect
the
competitive ess
of
I dia
shipme ts.

The
co ce
is
the efo e
ot
simply
about
the
headli e
ta iff
ate.
Fo
expo te s,
the
bigge
questio
is
whethe
I dia
goods
ca
co ti ue
to
compete
with
p oducts
f om
othe
cou t ies
if
the
cost
of
e te i g
the
US
ma ket
ises
sha ply.

Also
Read
:& bsp;Maha asht a
Bike-Taxi
Rules
Could
Cha ge
Swiggy,
Zomato
Delive ies:
2%
Welfa e
Levy,
I su a ce
A d
EVs

Bill
Gives
T ump
Ta iff
Powe ,
But
It
Is
Not
Yet
Law

The
latest
developme t
eeds
to
be
viewed
i
co text.

The
Se ate-app oved
legislatio
does
ot
itself
impose
ta iffs
o
I dia
goods.
I stead,
Sectio
113
would
give
the
US
P eside t
disc etio a y
autho ity
to
impose
ta iffs
of
up
to
100
pe
ce t
o
impo ts
f om
cou t ies
pu chasi g
Russia
oil
o
atu al
gas.

The
legislatio
would
also
equi e
the
US
T ade
Rep ese tative
(USTR)
to
ide tify
a d
eview
the
five
la gest
buye s
of
Russia
e e gy
eve y
180
days.

The
five
cou t ies
ide tified
as
the
la gest
buye s
i clude
Chi a,
I dia,
Slovakia,
Hu ga y
a d
Aze baija ,
acco di g
to
Ajay
S ivastava,
fou de
of
Global
T ade
Resea ch
I itiative
(GTRI).

The e
a e
also
p ovisio s
fo
exemptio s
u de
ce tai
ci cumsta ces.
Cou t ies
impo ti g
less
tha
15
pe
ce t
of
thei
total
e e gy
f om
Russia
a d
demo st ably
educi g
thei
depe de ce
o
Russia
e e gy
could
qualify
fo
a
exemptio .

The
ta iff
autho ity
would
emai
i
fo ce
fo
five
yea s,
u less
e ewed
by
Co g ess.

I dia’s
Russia
Oil
Depe de ce
Adds
A othe
Laye
Of
Risk

The
ta iff
th eat
is
di ectly
li ked
to
I dia’s
co ti ued
pu chases
of
Russia
c ude.

Acco di g
to
S ivastava,
Russia
supplied
30.3
pe
ce t
of
I dia’s
c ude
impo ts
i
2025-26,
wo th
$40.8
billio
out
of
total
c ude
impo ts
of
$134.7
billio .

That
depe de ce
has
made
Russia
oil
a
impo ta t
compo e t
of
I dia’s
e e gy
st ategy.
Discou ted
Russia
c ude
has
helped
lowe
I dia’s
impo t
bill,
suppo t
e e gy
secu ity
a d
co tai
i flatio ,
S ivastava
said.

This
c eates
a
difficult
policy
equatio
fo
I dia:
educi g
Russia
oil
pu chases
could
help
add ess
the
ta iff
th eat,
but
eplaci g
a
sig ifica t
sha e
of
those
supplies
could
i c ease
the
cou t y’s
e e gy
costs.

“I dia
should ‘t
allow
ta iff
th eats
to
dete mi e
its
e e gy
policy,& dquo;
S ivastava
said.

A
C ude
Shock
Could
Make
The
Equatio
Mo e
Complicated

The
pote tial
co seque ces
exte d
beyo d
expo ts.

Ca eEdge’s
Gupta
wa ed
that
if
I dia
a d
Chi a
we e
to
stop
impo ti g
Russia
c ude
because
of
the
p oposed
US
ta iffs,
the
esulti g
dis uptio
to
global
oil
supplies
could
push
c ude
p ices
sha ply
highe .

Global
c ude
co sumptio
is
a ou d
100
millio
ba els
pe
day,
while
Russia
accou ts
fo
oughly
9
millio
ba els
pe
day,
acco di g
to
Gupta.
I dia
a d
Chi a
togethe
accou t
fo
oughly
75
pe
ce t
of
Russia’s
c ude
expo ts.

If
a
substa tial
po tio
of
that
supply
we e
emoved
f om
the
global
ma ket,
c ude
p ices
could
move
well
beyo d
thei
ece t
levels
of
a ou d
$70-$85
pe
ba el.

Gupta
said
p ices
could
pote tially
c oss
$100
a d
each
$110-$120
pe
ba el
if
the
sce a io
mate ialises.

Fo
I dia,
such
a
ise
would
put
p essu e
o
its
exte al
fi a ces.
Gupta
said
the
cou t y’s
cu e t
accou t
deficit
could
pote tially
mo e
tha
double
f om
last
yea ‘s
levels
pu ely
because
of
c ude.

Also
Read
:& bsp;Rs
146
C o e
Pe sio
T a sfe :
He e’s
Who
Got
The
July
I stalme t
I
Utta akha d

Ta iff
P essu e
Could
Exte d
Beyo d
Expo te s

The
pote tial
oil
shock
could
c eate
a othe
challe ge
fo
the
domestic
eco omy.

At
c ude
p ices
of
a ou d
$110-$120
pe
ba el,
Gupta
said
the
gove me t
would
have
to
pass
o
highe
costs
at
fuel
pumps.
That
could
subseque tly
c eate
a
seco da y
i flatio a y
impact
ac oss
the
wide
eco omy.

The
esult
would
be
a
two-sided
challe ge
fo
I dia:
expo te s
could
face
weake
competitive ess
i
a
key
ove seas
ma ket,
while
mo e
expe sive
c ude
could
i c ease
the
cou t y’s
impo t
bu de
a d
put
p essu e
o
domestic
p ices.

Fo
ow,
howeve ,
the
p oposed
100
pe
ce t
ta iff
emai s
a
possibility
athe
tha
a
immediate
levy.
The
legislatio
must
still
pass
the
US
House
of
Rep ese tatives
a d
eceive
p eside tial
app oval.

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