Karnataka CM tussle: Two breakfasts later, Sidda–DKS standoff persists — why it’s a Catch-22 situation for Congress high command

NEW DELHI: A lot can happen over a cup of coffee. But even after two breakfasts between Siddaramaiah and his deputy DK Shivakumar, the question over the chief ministerial post in Karnataka still remains unanswered.As the Congress government reached the halfway mark in the state, reports quoting Congress sources suggested that MLAs and MLCs from Shivakumar’s faction had camped in Delhi to push the party high command to make him the next chief minister.Now, both Siddaramaiah and DKS are looking towards the party high command in Delhi for answers.However, the cleanup task for the party high command is not going to be easy, as this is beyond personalities. The Karnataka tussle contains loyalty, fine-tuned caste arithmetic and the future of Congress in the state.Sidda vs DKS: A long rivalrySiddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar together scripted the victory for Congress in the assembly elections in 2023. While Siddaramaiah’s AHINDA (Minorities, backward classes and Dalits) countered Bharatiya Janata Party’s Lingayat-Brahmin voter base, Shivakumar was credited for managing the organisational machinery in the party.However, even during the run-up to the elections, the rift between both the leaders was clearly visible. During the campaign, Sidda and DKS were rarely seen together sharing a stage. It was only at the eleventh hour that Karnataka party president Shivakumar met Siddaramaiah to put up a united front and bring supporters of both the leaders together.

Despite being the pillars of the party in the state, the leaders are polar opposites.

Fine-tuned caste arithmeticAfter Congress won in Karnataka, the high command was in a fix over the CM face. After days of deliberation, the party went ahead with Siddaramaiah’s name given his seniority and popularity. However, an agreement was reportedly reached that DK Shivakumar would take over the reins in the second half of the government.Recently, DKS confirmed the “secret deal” after he claimed that there had indeed been “a confidential understanding on leadership transition among five-six leaders” soon after Congress won a landslide in the 2023 elections.“This is confidential. I don’t want to speak publicly on this,” he added.Now after the two and a half years are completed, several seers from the Vokkaliga community are supporting Shivakumar’s claim to the chief ministership, emphasising that the community had not held the post since the early 2000s. This has created additional pressure on the party as Vokkaligas have around 13–14 percent share in Karnataka’s population, making it the second-most dominant landowning caste after Lingayats.Meanwhile, Siddaramaiah, 79 years old, is the tallest Kuruba leader Karnataka has seen. The Kurubas, a significant OBC community forming around 6–7% of the population, have historically lacked an undisputed mass leader until Siddaramaiah built his political philosophy around them.Additionally, Sidda has also built a support base among the AHINDA community, countering the dominance of Lingayats and Vokkaligas.This has added to the dilemma of the high command as picking Sidda would mean sidelining Vokkaligas and going with DKS would mean looking over the AHINDA and Kurubas.Future of CongressAmid the ongoing tussle over the chief ministerial post, the danger of losing majority in the Vidhan Soudha is looming over Congress government’s head.There are 23 Vokkaliga MLAs in the grand old party who are supporting DKS. In a scenario where the Congress high command decides to continue with Siddaramaiah as the chief minister, these MLAs who are openly backing DKS can pull out support from the government. Meanwhile, 9 Kuruba MLAs and 34 Lingayat MLAs are supporting Siddaramaiah, making the CM tussle a Catch-22 situation for the high command.With the decision window narrowing, Congress leadership now has three realistic options:

This route maintains continuity, protects AHINDA influence, and sends a signal of stability. A cabinet reshuffle may be sanctioned later as compensation to placate those backing Shivakumar.

Backers of DKS see this as honouring commitment and preventing factional drift. But replacing a sitting CM at the midpoint could cause internal rupture if not managed delicately.

A future-dated swap could satisfy both camps temporarily, provided the timeline is seen as credible and binding. It is the most politically pragmatic formula but only works if both factions stand down simultaneously.Dark horseMeanwhile, Bharatiya Janata Party floated another theory that Congress may ignore both Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar and choose a “dark horse” for the chief ministerial post in the state.Talking to reporters, former Karnataka CM and BJP MP Basavaraj Bommai said that chief minister Siddaramaiah and his deputy DKS are “being inflexible due to their ego,” leading the high command to consider alternative options.“CM and Deputy CM both have a very egoistic attitude. They are not ready to budge an inch. Therefore, the high command is compelled to think of the other alternative. So in this context, a dark horse might emerge in the state,” Bommai said.Kharge factorAmid the ongoing developments in the state, all eyes are now on Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge who may be the only one with a solution for this deadlock.Kharge, who also hails from Karnataka, is one of the most seasoned functionaries in the state. First elected to the state assembly in 1972, Kharge won nine consecutive elections until 2008, earning the nickname ‘Solillada Sardara’ (the undefeated chieftain).Acknowledging the power tussle between the CM and his deputy, Kharge played down the “internal conflict” within the party and said that the “high command” will sit together and deliberate on the issue.“Only the people there can say what the government is doing. But I would like to say that we will resolve such issues,” Kharge said.“People in high command — Rahul Gandhi, Sonia Gandhi and I — will sit together and deliberate on this… We will give the medicine when required,” he added. Go to Source