New Delhi:The upcoming visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to New Delhi on 4-5 December for the 23rd India-Russia Annual Summit is going to define the future course of the bilateral relationship in the backdrop of threat of American sanctions on Moscow pushing India to reduce oil purchases from that country by almost 50 per cent, said Kanwal Sibal, former Foreign Secretary and India’s Ambassador to Moscow.
Speaking exclusively to ABP Live on what could be the likely takeaways from Putin’s India visit, which is taking place at a time when ties between Moscow and Washington DC and Europe have dramatically worsened due to the Ukraine war, Sibal said both sides will mainly focus on how to skirt the sanctions as Russia is aware that India will go for a gradual reduction in the purchase of crude oil.
“On oil purchases, certainly we will have to diversify because our companies, both public and private sector and our banks will be loath to attract US sanctions and therefore there will be a steady fall in our orders. Though some oil will still flow through the spot market but it will be much-reduced volumes. Russia also understands that,” Sibal told ABP Live during an interview.
Sibal, who is currently Chancellor of Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), said, “We will be gradually reducing oil purchases from Russia…Already there is a reduction, and there’ll be more reduction. It will be more like a 50 per cent reduction. But some oil will still come.”
India has decided to significantly reduce its Russian oil purchases for December 2025 – a process that began in October owing to new Western sanctions on Russian companies like Rosneft and Lukoil, increased US pressure, and potential bank scrutiny.
Major Indian refiners have stopped new orders, and overall imports are projected to fall by roughly 47 per cent to about 1 million barrels per day, down from 1.87 million in November. This shift is leading to increased US oil imports and a broader re-evaluation of India’s energy supply sources.
According to Sibal, Russians are well aware of the fact that India will be taking such a step, but he stressed, such a move will not adversely impact the bilateral ties as New Delhi has plans to make up for it by way of more investments in the Russian oil and gas sector with more LNG agreements, more fertiliser purchases and more coking coal purchases.
He said both sides will also see greater cooperation in the field of pharmaceuticals and the information technology sector.
Ukraine War Opportunity For India-Russia Defence Ties Expansion
In terms of defence cooperation, which remains a cornerstone in the India-Russia ‘Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership’, Sibal said the Russia-Ukraine war offers “scope” to both Moscow and New Delhi to enhance defence cooperation, especially in the development of weaponry required for modern warfare.
“There is now scope to explore more defence cooperation with Russia in the light of the gains from their experience in modern warfare. They have got real ground experience over the last three years because the other side has thrown in their latest drones, missiles, Javelins (anti-tank missile system), artillery or the space systems that are being used,” highlighted Sibal, who was also India’s Ambassador to France.
He added, “We must understand from the Russians how they have analysed the weapons, what counters they have developed to deal with some of the most advanced and modern technologies they have seen. NATO is testing (weaponry) in Ukraine.”
Sibal said the fact that Russia has developed a nuclear-powered unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV) – Poseidon – is proof that Moscow has also undertaken giant strides in developing modern-age weaponry.
“Poseidon has been developed indigenously by the Russians. It does not have any input from external sources, which means they are in an advanced stage of developing weapons systems, and they have the capacity. That opens a window to us,” he underscored.
The Poseidon, also known as Status-6 or by its NATO reporting name Kanyon, is a nuclear-powered and nuclear-armed unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV). In late October 2025, Putin announced that a test of the Poseidon was successful, specifically the first time its nuclear power unit was activated after launch from a carrier submarine.
The new special-purpose nuclear submarine Khabarovsk was ceremonially launched from the Sevmash shipyard in Severodvinsk in early November 2025. This vessel is designed specifically to carry the Poseidon drones, with reports suggesting it could carry up to six.
While there will be talks on acquiring the S-500 air defence systems, Russia’s offer of the Su-57 fighter jet deal will not see much progress during Putin’s visit.
The S-500 Prometey (Prometheus) is a more advanced, next-generation system that builds upon and significantly expands the capabilities of the S-400 Triumf. It is designed to complement the S-400 within a multi-layered air defence network.
“A purchase of Su-57 will also go against the concept of ‘Atmanirbharta’ (Self-reliance) plan of the government. While we have an aircraft shortage, which the Indian Air Force keeps mentioning and while there is an acknowledgement of delays in the making of fighter jets by HAL (Hindustan Aeronautics Limited), I think we will still not opt for the Su-57 because it is already a developed aircraft and therefore buying a developed aircraft doesn’t bring us anything,” said Sibal.
