Takaichi vs Xi: Taiwan at the Center (AI-generated image used for representation)
When Sanae Takaichi stood in the Diet on November 7 and said that force used against Taiwan could trigger Japan’s right to “collective self-defence,” Beijing’s reaction came fast and furious.
TL;DR: Driving the news
In her first month as Japan’s Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi has vaulted from a domestic political unknown to Beijing’s most despised foreign leader.Why? A single sentence in Japan’s Diet on November 7 – saying that a Chinese military move against Taiwan could trigger Japan’s right to collective self-defense – sparked economic retaliation, diplomatic warfare, and ominous threats from Chinese officials.
Japan’s collective self defense
A furious China filed a protest to the UN, launched a broad campaign of economic punishment, and branded Takaichi as a revivalist of Japan’s militarist past. But she has refused to retract her words.
Why it matters
This is more than a war of words. Takaichi’s remark – blunt, unapologetic, and publicly stated – shatters Japan’s long-standing strategic ambiguity on Taiwan. It also pushes Japan directly into the crosshairs of China’s Taiwan war calculus.In an article, the Economist noted that she had been “bound to rile China sooner rather than later,” and Beijing’s response confirmed it. Gone was the careful tone that marked her meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping just a month earlier. In its place came public threats, economic punishment, and a diplomatic campaign designed to isolate Tokyo.
Beijing’s reaction has been swift and sharp:
- Seafood bans on Japan
- Tourism freeze affecting millions
- Diplomatic firestorm at the UN
- Online vitriol branding her a “witch” and “militarist”
- Threats of direct military retaliation
But for Japan’s nationalists? She’s the Iron Lady they’ve been waiting for. “I think she did a good job. I’ve been waiting for Ms Takaichi to speak up like that,” said Tokyo resident Mie Tanaka to WSJ.
The big picture
The crisis is unfolding at the nexus of Asia’s most combustible flashpoint: Taiwan. But its real stakes are bigger – it’s about:
- Competing visions of post-war legitimacy
- Deep-rooted historical trauma
- Rising nationalism on both sides
- And a looming US-China great-power collision
Takaichi, 64, represents Japan’s new nationalist vanguard: A conservative, security-focused leader who has visited the controversial Yasukuni Shrine and opposed past wartime apologies. She’s vowed to “work like a horse” to restore Japan’s global prestige.Her willingness to say what past Japanese prime ministers avoided has given Beijing a new enemy to rally against. But at home she is being rewarded for it. Polls cited by WSJ show her approval around seventy per cent, more than double her predecessor’s.Beijing sees her as the personification of the very Japan it fears – one that refuses to apologize, won’t be intimidated, and may militarily intervene over Taiwan.
Between the lines
Takaichi didn’t stumble into this. Her words were precise.
If it involves the use of warships and the exercise of force, I believe this is a case that could unquestionably constitute a crisis threatening the nation’s existence.
Sanae Takaichi said in Parliament.
That specific phrase – “survival-threatening situation” – activates legal provisions under Japan’s 2015 security legislation, allowing Tokyo to join US forces in combat, even without being directly attacked.
- For China, this is tantamount to pre-war Japan emerging from its pacifist shell.
- “It is shocking that Japan’s current leaders… crossed a red line,” said China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi.
Takaichi has refused to apologize or walk back the remarks, but has said she won’t discuss Taiwan scenarios further “to avoid speculation.”
Flashback: Not Japan’s first Taiwan warning
Japan’s Taiwan stance has hardened over years:
- In 2021, then-Deputy PM Aso Taro said a Taiwan crisis “could relate to a survival-threatening situation for Japan.”
- In 2022, a white paper called Taiwan’s stability “crucial” to Japanese security.
- But this is the first time a sitting prime minister has said it directly – and clearly.
That’s why Beijing sees this as crossing a red line.
Zoom in: Economic retaliation is already biting
- Tourism freeze: China – Japan’s largest source of tourists – warned citizens not to travel. Group tours have been canceled en masse. The loss could total ¥2.2 trillion ($14.2B), according to the Nomura Research Institute, according to a report in the Economist.
- Seafood ban: China re-imposed a ban on Japanese seafood, days after lifting one tied to Fukushima. Scallop exporters in Hokkaido and Aomori have been hit hardest.
- Cultural freeze: New Japanese movies have been pulled from Chinese theaters. Comedy shows and book deals were canceled.
- Rare earth threat: A senior PLA-linked account reminded Japan of the 2010 embargo – when China blocked rare earth exports during a territorial dispute. “Everything is possible,” warned Tsinghua University’s Liu Jiangyong.
Trump’s balancing act
US President Donald Trump has been unusually quiet. While he called Takaichi to reassure her of their friendship – “Call me anytime” – he didn’t publicly back her Taiwan stance.“President Trump mentioned that he and I are extremely good friends,” Takaichi told reporters after their.Trump’s ambiguity worries Tokyo. Analysts say he may sacrifice Taiwan concerns for trade deals with China – especially with a planned April visit to Beijing.“Trump likes being the dealmaker, but Japan needs clarity,” warned Seiko Mimaki of Doshisha University. “In formulating policy towards China, it is essential to fully grasp these tendencies and risks inherent in the Trump administration,” she wrote in an editorial in the Asahi newspaperStill, US ambassador George Glass has been outspoken: “In case anyone was in doubt, the United States is fully committed to the defence of Japan.”
What they’re saying
Beijing is going nuclear – diplomatically, economically, and rhetorically:
- China’s UN ambassador Fu Cong accused Takaichi of violating international law and warned that military retaliation could occur without UN Security Council approval, citing WWII-era “enemy state” clauses.
- On X, China’s Osaka consul-general posted: “If you stick that filthy neck where it doesn’t belong, it’s going to get sliced off.” (Post later deleted.)
- Chinese state media posted cartoons of Takaichi in imperial military uniform, burning Japan’s constitution, or riding war ghosts – one labeled her a “witch” and another mocked her surname for sounding like “troublemaker” in Mandarin, as per a Reuters report.
- Beijing also invoked Japan’s colonial rule over Taiwan from 1895–1945 and alleged “atrocities” – part of its campaign to link modern Japan with its wartime past.
What next
This crisis could easily metastasize:
- Missile deployments: Japan is pushing ahead with plans to station surface-to-air missiles on Yonaguni Island, just 110 km from Taiwan. Defense minister Koizumi said this “lowers the chance of an attack,” while Beijing called it a “provocation.”
- Military maneuvers: Chinese warships and drones have been spotted near the Senkaku Islands, claimed by both nations.
- Global diplomacy: China has taken the spat to the UN, attempting to rally Global South nations to condemn Japan – not just over Taiwan, but as a warning to others who may speak out.
- “In Chinese they call it ‘kill the chicken to scare the monkey,’” Lehigh University’s Yinan He told the WSJ. “They want others to know the cost of siding with Taiwan.”
The bottom line
The danger is that neither China nor Japan sees backing down as an option. The Economist put it plainly: both countries are “in a vicious game of chicken over Taiwan” and neither side “sees backing down as an option.”Xi is working under his stated 2027 deadline for military readiness over Taiwan. Takaichi is a new leader with strong public support and no interest in appearing weak in her first months in office.The Takaichi-Xi showdown is no mere diplomatic dust-up. It’s a clash of nationalist visions, driven by domestic politics, historical scars, and geopolitical ambition.(With inputs from agencies) Go to Source
