The political winds in Nalanda, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s home turf, appear to be shifting decisively in favour of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). According to ABP Live’s Expert Exit Poll 2025, the NDA is poised to win six out of the district’s seven assembly seats, leaving the Grand Alliance trailing with just one.
Bihar Sharif: A One-Sided Contest
All eyes are on the Bihar Sharif assembly constituency, where BJP candidate Dr Sunil Kumar is expected to register a landslide victory. Senior journalist Raj Kumar Mishra believes that Dr Kumar faces virtually no competition. He explained that the BJP candidate enjoys strong local support because he hails from Bihar Sharif itself, while the Grand Alliance fielded an outsider — a factor that appears to have alienated local voters.
“Residents clearly prefer someone from their own community,” Mishra noted, adding that villagers often complain that outsider candidates rarely return to their constituencies after winning elections.
Party-Wise Picture in Nalanda
BJP: 1 seat
JDU: 5 seats
RJD: 1 seat
With this distribution, the NDA looks set to retain a firm grip over Nitish Kumar’s bastion.
Grand Alliance’s Strategy Fails to Deliver
The Grand Alliance’s plan to field a Muslim candidate in Bihar Sharif, given the constituency’s significant Muslim population, did not yield results. Journalist Mohammad Mahmood Alam observed that despite the demographic advantage, the Grand Alliance candidate failed to connect with voters.
“The seat has long been a BJP stronghold,” Alam said. “Had the candidate reached out earlier and built a rapport with locals, the outcome might have been different. But now, the momentum clearly favours the NDA.”
Close Fights and Local Equations
Across Nalanda, local dynamics continue to shape voter sentiment. In Islampur, JDU’s Rohel Ranjan has garnered considerable sympathy and support owing to his late father, senior JDU leader Rajiv Ranjan, whose legacy remains influential in the region.
In the Nalanda constituency itself, there’s a tight contest between JDU’s Shravan Kumar and Congress candidate Kaushlendra Kumar, known locally as “Chhote Mukhiya.” Despite a strong challenge, Shravan Kumar is expected to retain his seat, albeit with a narrower margin this time.
Meanwhile, in Harnaut, often referred to as Nitish Kumar’s political cradle, the JDU’s Hari Narayan Singh seems comfortably placed. The Grand Alliance’s local candidate has struggled to make a public impact, while caste equations and Nitish’s enduring image continue to work in the NDA’s favour.
The Nitish Factor Still Holds
Even amid murmurs of dissatisfaction with the state government, the “Nitish factor” remains a powerful force in Nalanda. Villagers in the region often express pride in being part of the chief minister’s home district, saying they are reluctant to shift away from his leadership.
Whether in Bihar Sharif, Harnaut, or Islampur, the NDA’s grassroots connect and Nitish Kumar’s influence seem to be driving a clear edge.
Exit Poll Snapshot
Total Seats: 7
NDA: 6
Grand Alliance: 1
As per ABP Bihar’s Expert Exit Poll, the message from Nalanda is unmistakable, Nitish Kumar’s bastion remains firmly with the NDA, reaffirming his dominance in Bihar’s heartland.
