NEW DELHI: High voter turnout in the first phase of polling in Bihar assembly elections on Thursday has raised many eyebrows, curiously wondering whether it will favour the Nitish Kumar-led incumbent government or is it a sign of aggressive anti-incumbency voting.For 121 assembly seats, Bihar recorded 64.66 per cent voter turnout, which was an 8.5 per cent jump from the 2020 assembly elections. The enthusiastic voting has led both alliances – NDA and the Mahagathbandhan – interpreting the surge to their advantage.Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday asserted that the record turnout in the first phase of Bihar assembly polls was proof that people have reposed their trust in the “track record of Narendra and Nitish”.”Yesterday, the voters of Bihar broke all records. Never before in the history of the state has there been such a high poll percentage. Much of the credit goes to mothers and sisters, the Maatri Shakti (mother power), who turned up in large numbers to raise the turnout to nearly 65 per cent. It is evident that they all have trust in the track record of Narendra-Nitish,” PM Modi said.RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav, the INDIA bloc’s chief ministerial candidate, said, “I salute the people of Bihar for the bumper voting. I can now confidently say you have affirmed the victory of ‘Mahagathbandhan’.”Jan Suraaj founder Prashant Kishor also hailed voter turnout and claimed it to be a sign of the people’s yearning for a change. “After November 14, when votes will be counted, Bihar will have a new regime.”What history tells about high voter turnoutRashtriya Janata Dal feels that the high voter turnout is a confirmation to Tejashwi Yadav’s bet to the chief ministerial post.Riding on the anti-incumbency wave, RJD scion’s ‘s campaign revolving around the promise of Ek Parivar, Ek Naukri; MAA Yojana; free electricity up to 200 units; farm loan waivers; expanded scholarships; and a return to the old pension system. His last moment effort to roll out Rs 30,000 to women on Makar Sankranti is also seen as a counter to NDA.After the first phase of the elections, Tejashwi claimed that the people of Bihar have voted for change.“Today, Bihar has voted for change in the first phase. Every citizen has stepped out to end the 20 years of darkness and lit the flame of transformation, bringing a wave of happiness, prosperity, and peace across the state,” Tejashwi said.RJD supremo patriarch Lalu Prasad Yadav drew a parallel between politics and roti while advocating for a regime change in Bihar.”We must keep flipping the roti when it is on the hot tawa, otherwise it will get burnt. Twenty years is enough. A Tejashwi (Yadav) led government is important for a new Bihar,” he said, sharing a photo with son Tejashwi and wife and former Chief Minister Rabri Devi. The veteran leader and his family cast their votes at a polling booth in Patna. Historically, high voter turnout is a sign of regime change in Bihar. People have traditionally lined up in polling booths when they desire for change.In 1980, the voter turnout surged almost 7 per cent in favour of Congress after a three-year rule of Karpoori Thakur-led Janata Party government and a president’s rule.In 1990, voter turnout rose from 56.3 per cent to 62 per cent — a 5.8 per cent increase that saw the ousting of Jagannath Mishra-led Congress government and Lalu Prasad Yadav from Janata Dal took oath as chief minister.However, in 2005, turnout dropped by 16%, yet it again brought a change of guard, with JD(U)’s Nitish Kumar taking office for the first time.In 2010, voter turnout rose from 46.5 per cent to 52.7 per cent, giving Nitish Kumar another chance as chief minister due to his promising work earning him the name of “Sushashan Babu.”What analysts feelPolitical analyst Kumar Vijay feels that the cash rollouts and social security schemes announced by Nitish, just ahead of the elections, might have worked in favour of NDA in the first phase of polls. He, however, said that votes “will translate more in favour for JD(U) within the NDA” — which seemed to lag behind ahead of the elections.”Women voter turnout in the first phase of the elections was very encouraging. It seems that Mukhya Mantri Mahila Rojgaar Yojana, which gave Rs 10,000 to the bank accounts of 75 lakh women, free electricity upto 125 units and increased pension to Rs 1,100 may have worked out for the incumbent government,” Kumar Vijay said while talking to The Times of India.”Even after 20 years of Nitish Kumar’s rule, surprisingly, anti-incumbency was not visible,” he added. He further said that Mahagathbandhan’s rozgaar promise may not have worked in the first phase of the elections.”Employment pitch by Tejashwi does not seem to impress voters. RJD’s promise to transfer Rs 30,000 under Mai Bhain Yojana till January 14 also did not work as it was only a promise, while NDA government had already transferred Rs 10,000,” he said.Meanwhile, Kumar Vijay said that migrants labpureres in north Bihar, who returned home for Chhath festivities and have not yet gone back to their places of work, are the “X factor” in the assembly polls and may incline more towards Prashant Kishore’s Jan Suraaj.”Jan Suraaj made migration a huge issue in the run up to the elections. Migrant laboureres in north Bihar, who returned home for Chhath festivities and have not yet gone back to their places of work, are the ‘X factor’ in the assembly polls and may incline more towards Prashant Kishore’s Jan Suraaj.”Is SIR responsible for high voter turnout?Months before the assembly elections, the Election Commission conducted a voter list purification drive – Special Intensive Revision – which led to a significant correction in the state’s electoral roll.Following SIR, the final list included 7.42 crore eligible voters — 18 lakh more than the 7.24 crore names in the draft roll, but 47 lakh fewer than the 7.89 crore names recorded before the revision exercise.In the Magadh region, the voter base grew by an average of 2.6 per cent, with Patna district registering the highest increase at 3.4 per cent, adding around 1.6 lakh new voters to the rolls. This might be the responsible for the higher voter turnout. In the 2020 Bihar assembly elections, the battle across these 121 seats turned out to be one of the most tightly contested phases. The Mahagathbandhan — comprising the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Congress, and Left parties — managed to secure a slender edge by winning 61 constituencies. The ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the BJP and JD(U), was close behind with 59 seats.Now, the second phase of assembly polls will be held on November 11, and the votes will be counted on November 14. While the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), comprising of BJP, JD(U), HAMS, LJP (RV), and others, is looking to retain power for a second term, the Mahagathbandhan, comprising Congress, RJD, left parties, and VIP, is looking to get back to power. Jan Suraaj party has also made a debut in the electoral fray, contesting in more than 200 seats on its own.In the 2020 assembly election, NDA won 125 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan secured 110 seats. The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) emerged as the single largest party with 75 seats, followed closely by BJP with 74 and JD(U) with 43. Go to Source
