India’s largest carmaker Maruti Suzuki is expected to post a steady second-quarter performance, with revenue seen rising around 8per cent year-on-year and profit up 18per cent, according to the average of seven brokerage estimates. While exports and better pricing are expected to support topline growth, higher input costs, discounting, and expenses related to the new Kharkhoda plant may limit margin gains. Brokerages broadly expect volume growth of about 2per cent YoY for the quarter ended September 2025, weighed down by subdued demand in the domestic small-car segment. However, richer product mix, higher realisations, and strong export volumes — which are estimated to have risen to about 20per cent of total sales from 14per cent a year ago — are seen cushioning the overall performance.
Nuvama Equities expects high single-digit revenue growth, aided by better pricing and lower contribution from entry-level cars. However, it anticipates a contraction in EBITDA margin due to higher input and commissioning costs from the new plant. “Key monitorables will be demand outlook and pricing trends,” it noted.
Nomura forecasts an 8per cent YoY increase in revenue and sees EBITDA margin improving by 20 basis points sequentially to 10.6per cent, led by a 6per cent YoY increase in average selling prices (ASPs).
Motilal, however, remains cautious. It expects margin pressure to persist, with EBITDA margin at 9.8per cent, down 210 basis points YoY, as higher discounts and launch costs offset operating leverage benefits. The brokerage pegged profit growth at 8per cent YoY, driven largely by cost control and a stable product mix.
Kotak Equities has a more positive stance, projecting EBITDA margin expansion of 60 bps QoQ to 11per cent, aided by operating leverage and reversal of one-time employee costs. It expects a 5per cent YoY revenue increase, supported by a 2per cent rise in volumes and a 3per cent rise in ASPs.
ICICI Securities also expects a modest quarter, projecting 4per cent sequential revenue growth with margins improving 20 bps QoQ on operating efficiency. On a YoY basis, it sees a 130 bps decline in margins due to higher fixed costs at the Kharkhoda facility and commodity headwinds.
Overall, analysts expect Maruti Suzuki’s Q2 results to reflect resilience amid a mixed demand backdrop. The near-term pressure on margins is expected to ease once the new capacity at Kharkhoda ramps up and festive demand provides volume traction in the second half of the fiscal year.
