Indian markets remained optimistic of turning the tables for investors on Monday. The BSE Sensex started the day a little under 80,600, rallying more than 100 points, while the NSE Nifty50 began trading above 24,700, climbing close to 50 points, around 9:15 AM. This recovery in the sentiment coincided with the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) starting today.
Notably, the GIFT Nifty futures also indicated a positive start for equities as it climbed over 100 points to inch closer to 24,800, around 7:44 AM today. In the pre-open session, the Sensex jumped 128 points to cross 80,550, and the Nifty rose over 50 points to surpass 24,700, around 9:05 AM.
Analysts pointed out that Indian stock markets are expected to take cues from the Reserve Bank of India’s interest rate decision, developments on tariffs, global indicators and foreign investor flows in the week ahead. The coming sessions will be data-heavy, with multiple domestic and international triggers set to influence market momentum.
RBI Decision and Domestic Data in Focus
Markets will remain shut on Thursday on account of Dussehra and Mahatma Gandhi Jayanti. Ahead of that, the RBI’s monetary policy outcome on October 1 will be a key event impacting the sentiment in the market. Analysts noted that the street remains divided over whether the central bank will opt for a rate cut. Industrial production figures and HSBC’s PMI manufacturing data will also be closely tracked.
Derivatives expiry for September is another factor likely to inject volatility. “Markets step into a data-heavy week, where both domestic and global cues will dictate momentum. On the domestic front, industrial production data and the RBI’s policy decision will be in focus, along with the expiry of September derivatives contracts,” said Ajit Mishra, Senior Vice-President, Research, Religare Broking Ltd.
The festive season demand outlook will also be a theme for investors to watch. Santosh Meena, Head of Research at Swastika Investmart, said: “On the domestic front, the upcoming RBI policy on 1st October is crucial, with the street divided on whether a rate cut will materialize. IIP data and festive season sales updates will also be important triggers.”
Global Signals and Trade Talks
Global factors will remain just as influential. India and the US have agreed to continue discussions aimed at finalising a mutually beneficial trade agreement, the Commerce Ministry said on Friday. “At this point, all eyes are on US–India trade relations for a possible relief rally,” Meena added.
US economic data, movements in the dollar index, and crude oil price trends will also guide market sentiment. Foreign institutional investor (FII) flows, which have been negative of late, are expected to remain the most crucial determinant for market direction.
Recent Market Performance
Last week saw steep declines in Indian benchmarks. The Sensex dropped 2,199.77 points, or 2.66 per cent, while the Nifty fell 672.35 points, or 2.65 per cent. Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services, said equities closed on a weak note, with broad-based sectoral declines.
“The IT index came under early pressure amid concerns over rising H-1B visa costs, compounded by Accenture’s subdued outlook. Sentiment weakened further as fresh US tariffs on pharmaceutical products led to a sharp sell-off in pharma counters. Mid- and small-cap stocks corrected more sharply than large caps, reflecting stress from their stretched valuations,” Nair observed.
With multiple crosscurrents at play, ranging from central bank actions to global trade negotiations, analysts expect heightened volatility and cautious trading in the shortened festive week ahead.
