Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer and geopolitical expert Ian Bremmer emphasised that the new agreement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan “is going to change life for India, no question,” pointing to its potential to alter the regional balance of power, especially following India’s recent Operation Sindoor.
Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have signed a landmark mutual defence pact that analysts say could reshape South Asia’s security environment and impact India’s strategic posture.
“If you’re India and you have an ongoing very severe border security issue with Pakistan… there’s a good chance we’re going to see another military altercation. Now if that happens and Saudi Arabia is committed to come to Pakistan’s defense, if I’m India that has to factor into my calculations. That’s going to change life for India, no question,” Bremmer said in a recent interview with India Today TV.
The pact, formalised during Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s visit to Riyadh, commits both nations to treat an attack on one as an attack on both. Reports suggest this defence agreement may even extend to Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, allowing it to fall under Saudi protection in an emergency.
Bremmer noted that while China remains Pakistan’s primary ally and main source of military support and intelligence, Islamabad has been expanding its diplomatic ties. “The fact that they have a better relationship with Trump through crypto investments and other investments, including with Trump’s own family, certainly makes Pakistan feel more welcome, more confident, stronger,” Bremmer said.
Highlighting longstanding cooperation, he added, “Yes, it is true that Saudi Arabia has been helping to fund Pakistan and their plutonium program for many, many years. And it had been an open secret that Saudi Arabia in an event of crisis considered Pakistan’s nuclear program to be Saudi Arabia’s emergency nuclear program if they ever needed it. That’s something that was discussed well before Trump became president.
What’s different now, Bremmer argued, is that both countries are making their strategic partnership public. “The fact that they are now openly declaring a collective security pact is a very significant new step forward,” he emphasised.
According to Bremmer, Riyadh’s move signals a shift away from relying solely on the US for security. “It is an effort to diversify alliances, to rely less exclusively for security on the United States. The need to ensure that they have a broader array of security partners around the world is growing. That’s why they made that decision,” he said.
He also noted the boost for Pakistan’s international standing, saying “It’s going to make Pakistan feel like they are geopolitically stronger. But the fact that they are now openly declaring a collective security pact is a very significant new step forward.”
The timing of the pact follows heightened tensions in the region, including an Israeli airstrike in Qatar that killed a Qatari security officer targeting Hamas leaders. According to Bremmer, Saudi officials were dissatisfied with Washington’s muted reaction. “The United States certainly didn’t do anything to stop it and they did very little to complain about it afterwards. There’s no punishment for Israel, and if you’re Saudi Arabia, that is an unacceptable response,” he said.
As regional dynamics shift, the Indian government has stated it is “closely monitoring the deal,” with the Ministry of External Affairs reaffirming India’s strong relationship with Saudi Arabia but vowing to take any action necessary to protect its own security interests.
In another interview with news agency ANI, Bremmer praised Prime Minister Narendra Modi for publicly rejecting Trump’s mediation claims on the India-Pakistan escalation, describing it as a bold stance that contrasts with the silence of other global leaders.
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