American intelligence agencies believe Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, is significantly more inclined than his late father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to pursue nuclear weapons, according to New York Times citing officials familiar with classified US assessments.
While Ali Khamenei had publicly opposed the development of nuclear weapons and issued a religious decree (fatwa) against their use, US intelligence believes his successor is more receptive to advancing Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
Although Mojtaba Khamenei has never publicly advocated building a nuclear bomb, US agencies assess that he and Iran’s new hardline leadership are interested in developing advanced nuclear weapon capabilities.
Leadership Change Raises Fresh Concerns
The assessment comes after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in an Israeli strike reportedly supported by US intelligence, triggering a leadership transition in Tehran.
US officials say Mojtaba Khamenei remains in charge despite sustaining serious injuries during the conflict. However, they believe he currently wields less authority than his father, who ruled Iran for more than three decades.
Officials also cautioned that much of the intelligence on Mojtaba Khamenei’s views was collected before the recent war, noting that his injuries have significantly reduced his public appearances and communications.
Trump Weighs Military Escalation
The intelligence assessment comes as US President Donald Trump considers whether to intensify military action against Iran.
According to officials, evidence suggesting that Iran’s new leadership may be willing to pursue a nuclear weapon could strengthen the case for additional military operations.
Despite these concerns, US intelligence agencies say Tehran has not yet resumed active nuclear enrichment or restarted its weapons programme following recent US-Israeli strikes.
Iran Moves Nuclear Equipment to ‘Pickaxe Mountain’
American officials say Iran has relocated some nuclear centrifuges to a heavily fortified underground complex known as Pickaxe Mountain in central Iran.
The facility, buried deep beneath a mountain, is believed to be beyond the reach of America’s most powerful conventional bunker-busting bombs.
US officials believe the move is primarily aimed at protecting critical nuclear infrastructure rather than immediately restarting uranium enrichment.
Satellite imagery and intelligence reports indicate Iran has also reinforced the site with additional ground forces amid concerns that US special forces could attempt a ground assault.
Earlier this week, President Trump described Pickaxe Mountain as “a possible target for a nice big fat shot right in their front door,” while claiming the United States had not detected active nuclear work at the facility.
Nuclear Programme Slowed, Not Eliminated
US officials maintain that last year’s American strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities at Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan significantly damaged Tehran’s programme but did not destroy it completely.
Initial intelligence estimates suggested the attacks delayed Iran’s nuclear programme by only several months rather than eliminating it altogether.
Officials believe Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium remains intact and accessible, meaning the country still retains the core materials needed for a potential nuclear weapon.
A Shift In Nuclear Doctrine?
US intelligence believes Ali Khamenei’s religious opposition to nuclear weapons acted as a restraint on Iran’s nuclear ambitions, even as Tehran expanded enrichment capabilities.
However, assessments suggest Mojtaba Khamenei does not share the same reservations.
According to US officials, Iran’s previous leadership explored developing a basic nuclear device as a deterrent. Intelligence now indicates the new Supreme Leader may favour pursuing more sophisticated thermonuclear warheads capable of being miniaturised for long-range ballistic missiles.
