Who will be AAP’s principal challenger?
NEW DELHI: Who will be the principal challenger to Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party in the 2027 assembly elections in Punjab?On paper, the answer should be Congress. After all, it is the main opposition party in the state, with 18 seats in the assembly, followed by the Shiromani Akali Dal and the BJP in terms of numbers. But a closer look at how the three parties are preparing for the electoral battle suggests the winds may be changing.The BJP, despite having the weakest presence in Punjab at the moment, has made the strongest push so far. The party has dropped enough signals that it intends to go all out in the state. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Union home minister Amit Shah, BJP president Nitin Nabin and Haryana chief minister Nayab Singh Saini have all already visited Punjab to energise the cadre and reach out to voters. The Prime Minister is scheduled to make another visit to the state later this month and announce mega development projects to reinforce the party’s intent.The Congress should have been best placed to claim the opposition space after its 2024 Lok Sabha performance, but the grand old party is still caught in a web of internal churn and is busy setting its house in order. The SAD, once Punjab’s dominant political force, is trying to rebuild after years of decline. AAP is the party in power, but it will enter the 2027 poll battle with the burden of defending its record in office. That leaves Punjab with a political contest within the electoral contest: before the state decides who forms the next government, the opposition camp has to compete to decide who will lead the fight against AAP.
Congress: Strong on paper, split on ground
Of the three contenders in the opposition space, it is the Congress which has the numbers, the organisational strength and also the backing of history to claim the opposition space and also perhaps power in Punjab. But to ensure that, the party will first have to settle the battle within its own house. The decision to retain Amrinder Singh Raja Warring as state president while appointing Charanjit Singh Channi as campaign committee chief has triggered an internal friction, much to the delight of the BJP which is leaving no stone unturned to highlight the factionalism within the Punjab Congress. Several Punjab Congress leaders have thrown their weight behind Channi and have asked the high command to reconsider its leadership choices in the state.While AICC general secretary in-charge of Punjab Bhupesh Baghel has asserted that Congress remains “the only option” for the people of the state, the fact that Channi skipped a key Punjab Congress meeting called by him was hard to miss. Apart from Channi, Sukhjinder Singh Randhawa also skipped the meeting.
Warring tried to play down crisis in the state unit
Warring tried to play down their absence, saying both Channi and Randhawa had informed the party that they were out of town and would be available after a couple of days. Channi, along with a group of loyalists, is reportedly in Delhi to raise concerns over the recent reshuffle of the party’s state unit.Baghel is currently on a five-day tour of Punjab, during which he is scheduled to hold meetings with senior leaders, office-bearers and party workers as part of the Congress’ organisational strengthening exercise. But how much of this will help to defuse the crisis only time will tell.For now, Congress is trying to contain the damage. Baghel has started meeting state leaders. The immediate challenge for the high command is to calm the Channi camp without upsetting Warring. The party has not announced any changes yet, but leaders close to Channi want their concerns to be heard by the central leadership.
Baghel has made it clear that ‘no one is above the party high command’
Until then, Congress will have to manage two battles at once: projecting unity against AAP in Punjab, and preventing the leadership tussle from becoming big enough to give the BJP an opening.
BJP playbook in action
The BJP, which already has 23 states in its kitty, has dropped enough hints that it is going for the kill in Punjab this time. The saffron party’s tried, tested and templated three-fold strategy for winning states is already in motion. The first is “absorption through defection politics”, which includes importing established leaders from other parties to make up for weak organisational strength. The second is to ambush the ruling party by aggressively highlighting its failings and exploiting its faultlines. The third is to amplify the benefits of a double-engine government for the state’s development by promising a host of central support and projects.All three strategies are in play in Punjab.The first round of leaders was “imported” from the Congress during and after the 2022 assembly elections. The second round of defections was from AAP, led by Kejriwal’s once-trusted aide Raghav Chadha, who along with six other MPs is now part of the BJP camp. As the elections approach, this list is likely to grow longer.The BJP has been unrelenting in its attacks on the AAP government, with all top leaders chipping in to build and sustain pressure. From drugs to the sacrilege video row and corruption, the list is long. Finally, the third component of the BJP’s playbook is also in action: promises of a better and more secure future for Punjab, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself leading this drive. Union minister Ravneet Singh Bittu has announced that PM Modi will visit Punjab this month to inaugurate several major development projects. He further said the Union government has ensured that there is no shortage of funds for Punjab’s development, and that significant investments are being made in infrastructure, connectivity and public welfare sectors.“The people of Punjab are witnessing the difference between a government focused on development and an opposition consumed by internal adjustments and distribution of posts,” Bittu said in a statement.This will be the PM’s second visit to the state. In February, PM Modi had visited Punjab to mark the 649th Birth Anniversary of Sant Guru Ravidas Ji. During the trip, he renamed Adampur Airport to Sri Guru Ravidas Ji Airport, Adampur. He also inaugurated the new Terminal Building at Halwara Airport in Ludhiana.Clearly, the BJP is leaving no stone unturned to implement its Punjab plan, and that should keep both AAP and Congress worried.
SAD: Old force, shrinking space
As for the Shiromani Akali Dal which dominated state politics for long, the party has been pushed to the corner after snapping ties with the BJP. The party and its leaders have been active on the ground, missing no opportunity to attack the Bhagwant Mann government and mobilising cadres.But SAD’s challenge is that the political space it once occupied is now crowded. AAP has eaten into its rural and Sikh support base, Congress remains the larger opposition force on paper, and the BJP is trying to expand after breaking out of its old junior-partner role.
AAP confidence of win
The possibility of a renewed SAD-BJP alliance also appears unlikely. The BJP has already dismissed speculation of a possible tie-up, with Union minister Hardeep Singh Puri making it clear that the party would never accept the role of a “younger brother” or junior partner.In the 2022 assembly polls, the BJP won two seats while SAD recorded its worst-ever electoral performance, winning just three. For SAD, 2027 is less about defeating AAP. It is more about proving that it still belongs in Punjab’s main opposition race.
The war is on
Punjab, therefore, is heading into the 2027 assembly test with all four major players facing very different challenges.So, while AAP tries to defend its only turf, its challengers are locked in an intense battle to take the pole position. Congress remains the main opposition for now, but its own leadership tussle could weaken its claim to that space. This even as the BJP is trying to spring a surprise in Punjab, just as it did in Odisha and Bengal.That makes the 2027 Punjab contest AAP versus who? For now, the war is on. Go to Source
