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Will Donald Trump And PM Modi Be Friends Again? Will There Be A Phone Call? What About Tariffs?

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November may well decide whether Trump and Modi’s personal chemistry once again becomes the driving force of India-US ties

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PM Modi responded to US President Donald Trump (right) on social media. (Reuters File)

PM Modi responded to US President Donald Trump (right) on social media. (Reuters File)

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The ice has finally been broken. After nearly two months of tension in which the US imposed 50% tariffs on India and accused it of funding Russia in the war with Ukraine, President Donald Trump finally took an off-ramp, praising the relationship with India, and Narendra Modi. The Indian Prime Minister responded immediately, reciprocating Trump’s words. So, will Trump and Modi be friends again? Is a phone call finally on the way? Where will they meet next? And will the secondary tariffs remain, or a trade deal will be signed?

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After a long bout of diplomatic acrimony, Trump now said: “I will always be friends with Modi. He’s great. India and the United States have a special relationship. There is nothing to worry about. I don’t think we have lost India.”

But Trump laced it with a criticism when he said, “I just don’t like what Modi is doing at this particular moment.” The reference is to India’s continuous purchases of Russian oil.

Modi, however, grabbed this opportunity to respond to Trump on social media. “I deeply appreciate and fully reciprocate President Trump’s sentiments and positive assessment of our ties.” These were Modi’s first comments on Trump in recent months.

This is also the first exchange of some kind of communication between both leaders since a tense June 17 phone call. Modi now said: “India and the United States have a very positive and forward-looking Comprehensive and Global Strategic Partnership.”

So, what next? Will the two leaders take this new-found bonhomie forward with a phone call and a bilateral meeting? Can India really trust Trump as he is infamous for flipping on his praise and condemnation with remarkable consistency?

A phone call between both leaders is long overdue. The last one on June 17 did not end on a good note as Modi insisted that Trump had no role to play in the India-Pakistan ceasefire while Trump stuck to his claims. Trump’s offer to Modi to stop by in the US on his way back from Canada was also not accepted by Modi, as India smelt a diplomatic trap with Pakistan’s Army Chief Asim Munir in the White House at the same time. But Trump did accept Modi’s invite to visit India later this year for the QUAD summit. However, there has been radio silence since from the White House on this visit.

There is a possibility that a phone call between Modi and Trump would soon happen over the scheduling of the QUAD summit. This phone call could give a chance to both leaders to speak on other pressing issues too, like the progress of the India-US trade deal that could take away the pain of the tariffs, and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War. If a thaw is achieved over a phone call, possibility of a meeting would open up.

But PM Modi is not travelling to the US this month for the UN General Assembly meeting. Like since 2022, Foreign Minister S Jaishankar will represent India at the UNGA.

Malaysia in October could well be the venue where Trump and Modi finally meet. President Trump plans to attend a leaders’ meeting of the ASEAN in Kuala Lumpur on October 26, according to the prime minister of host nation Malaysia. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has said that the US president had accepted his invitation for October 26, although the White House is still to confirm it.

US Presidents have attended ASEAN Summits, but not always consistently. Joe Biden attended it in Cambodia in 2022, and Trump was last at ASEAN in 2017 in Philippines.

Modi will be going for the ASEAN summit as in earlier years. So, is a meeting possible there with Trump? This is the most awaited development now. There is no chance for such a meeting at the G20 summit in Johannesburg in November as Trump has said he won’t travel for the G20, and Vice-President JD Vance will be representing the US.

And what about the QUAD leaders’ summit in India? The June 17 Modi-Trump phone call saw Trump accepting Modi’s invite to come to India for the QUAD. But a recent New York Times report says Trump no longer has such plans. India also has no clarity yet. The Foreign Ministry last week said it would not like to comment on speculative media reports on this issue. “India sees the Quad as a valuable forum for discussion among the four member countries on shared interests on several issues. The Leaders’ Summit is scheduled through diplomatic consultations among the member countries, that is among the four countries,” India has said.

The big coup could be if Donald Trump does indeed visit India as promised in November for QUAD and a trade deal is signed by both countries during this visit. But are we getting too optimistic with the India and the US bonhomie? It is more a case of Trump realising the limits of US bullying over India – especially after the SCO Summit where Modi gave his message to Trump with visuals of his long and substantive meetings with Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping.

Remember, the US hasn’t revoked the 50% tariffs on India and wants a trade deal with India on its own terms like entry into India’s agriculture and dairy sectors. Modi has said this won’t be allowed by India at any cost. Trump also continues to maintain his “ceasefire” claim. He nurtures close relationship with Pakistan as well as Asim Munir, a big irritant for India.

So, roadblocks and challenges remain in repairing the US-India relationship. Can Trump and Modi be friends again? That’s the question making waves in global diplomacy.

To be sure, Trump has himself to blame for spoiling the relationship with his aides using disparaging language for India. India has been handling the matter in a very mature and pragmatic way. Modi never joined the war of words with Trump over the last one month since the 50% tariffs kicked in. The only phrase that Modi used to describe the matter was “economic selfishness”. Top ministers Nirmala Sitharaman and Piyush Goyal also did not take any potshots at Trump and said things will soon get better with the US.

This approach has enabled Trump to get an opportunity for an off-ramp. In the theatre of geopolitics, friendships are tested but equations endure. Trump says he “gets along very well with Modi”. Modi says the partnership is ‘positive and forward-looking.’ The friendship is stressed but not broken.

With Vladimir Putin set to visit India this December, the next two months are crucial for Trump to repair relations with India or risk pushing India even more in the Russian camp. November may well decide whether Trump and Modi’s personal chemistry once again becomes the driving force of India-US ties.

About the Author

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Aman Sharma

Aman Sharma, Executive Editor – National Affairs at CNN-News18, and Bureau Chief at News18 in Delhi, has over two decades of experience in covering the wide spectrum of politics and the Prime Minister’s Office….Read More

Aman Sharma, Executive Editor – National Affairs at CNN-News18, and Bureau Chief at News18 in Delhi, has over two decades of experience in covering the wide spectrum of politics and the Prime Minister’s Office…. Read More

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