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NEW DELHI: Private weather forecasting agency, Skymet, on Tuesday predicted ‘below normal’ monsoon rainfall this year amid risk of El Niño whose impact is expected to develop increasingly during the second half (Aug-Sept) of the four-month season, beginning June.If that happens, India’s farm sector, which is already staring at the possibility of high input (fertiliser and diesel) costs due to war in west Asia, may face additional tough conditions as more than half of the country’s farming operations depend on monsoon rains for irrigation.Though the IMD is expected to release its forecast – considered the most authoritative one – either later this week or next week, the possibility of subpar monsoon is not ruled out at this juncture as the country’s national weather forecaster and the global agencies too earlier indicated gradual increase of development of El Niño conditions towards the later phase of the monsoon season.El Nino – climate conditions associated with warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean – invariably linked to depressed monsoon rains in the Indian sub-continent.“Skymet expects the upcoming monsoon to be ‘below normal’ to the tune of 94% (with an error margin of +/-5%) of the long-period average (LPA) of 868.6 mm for the four-month long period from June to Sept. The spread is below normal, being 90-95% of LPA,” said the private forecaster. It underlined 40% probability of ‘below normal’ monsoon rainfall with another 30% indicating possibility of ‘drought’ (when the monsoon rains fall below 90% of the LPA) this year.In terms of geographical distribution of rainfall, Skymet expects the core monsoon rainfed zone of central and western parts of the country to witness “inadequate rainfall”.“Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan are likely to observe less than normal rains, and more so, during Aug-Sept. East and northeastern parts will be placed better than the rest of the country,” it said.“Equatorial Pacific ocean-atmosphere coupling is now stronger than before. El Niño is expected during the early phase of the southwest monsoon and will keep growing stronger till fall of the year. El Niño return may presage a weaker monsoon. The second half of the season is likely to be more erratic and irregular,” said Jatin Singh, managing director, Skymet.The weather agency, however, noted a “strong positive” Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) – another climatic phenomena linked to monsoon rains – during the season has the potential to “partially avert the ill effects of El Niño”. “IOD is expected to be neutral or delicately positive. It will contribute to a decent start of monsoon. However, the chances of monsoon getting impaired during the second half of season can not be dismissed. The seasonal rainfall distribution will be at risk of being diverse and biased,” said the Skymet.According to its monthly scale forecast, the monsoon rains in June are expected to be normal (101% of the monthly LPA) but it will gradually decrease quantitatively with 95% of the LPA in July, 92% of the LPA in August and 89% of the LPA in September.
