Nearly two weeks after the devastating air campaign known as “Operation Epic Fury”, Iran continues to mount attacks across the Middle East despite losing much of its top leadership. Analysts say the country’s ability to keep fighting stems from a military doctrine created years earlier by Iranian strategist Mohammad Ali Jafari.
The February 28 operation carried out by the United States and Israel targeted the core of Iran’s command structure. Among those killed were Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, IRGC Commander-in-Chief Mohammad Pakpour, Defence Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh, and Armed Forces Chief of Staff Seyyed Abdolrahim Mousavi.
According to the Institute for the Study of War, the goal was to cripple Iran’s command-and-control structure and prevent coordinated retaliation. Western planners expected the country’s military response to collapse quickly after the leadership losses.
Instead, Iran has continued to launch missile and drone attacks across the region.
Who Is Mohammad Ali Jafari?
Jafari began his career in the intelligence branch of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps shortly after the Iranian Revolution of 1979. He later fought in the Iran–Iraq War, an experience that shaped much of his military thinking.
Over the following decades, he rose through the ranks, commanding IRGC ground forces in 1992 and later leading the elite Sarallah unit tasked with defending Tehran.
In 2005, Jafari became director of the Guards’ Centre for Strategic Studies, where he refined the Mosaic Doctrine by studying American military campaigns in Iraq and other conflict zones.
The ‘Mosaic Doctrine’ Explained
Iran’s resilience is widely attributed to Jafari’s concept of “Decentralised Mosaic Defence,” a strategy designed to ensure the country could continue fighting even if its top command was eliminated.
The doctrine disperses military authority across multiple semi-autonomous units. Each formation is equipped with its own operational plans, weapons stockpiles, and drone capabilities, allowing it to act independently if central leadership is destroyed.
Under this system, Iran established 31 independent commands within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Each command functions like a tile in a mosaic—separate yet part of a larger operational structure.
The idea was to create a military system capable of continuing operations even during catastrophic losses at the top.
Retaliation Across Region
Within hours of the February 28 strikes, Iran launched waves of ballistic missiles and drones targeting US military bases in Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Jordan, and the United Arab Emirates. Several sites inside Israel were also hit during the barrage.
Civilian infrastructure in Gulf states—including airports, oil refineries, and desalination plants—also came under attack.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian later apologised for strikes affecting neutral countries such as Oman and Bahrain, pledging respect for their sovereignty. However, Iranian missile and drone launches have continued as the conflict entered its 14th day on March 13.
Analysts: Iran’s War Machine Running on ‘Autopilot’
Security analysts say Iran’s decentralised structure allows its military to function even without direct leadership.
Unlike centralized command systems that collapse when senior leaders are eliminated, the IRGC’s mosaic model ensures local commanders can continue executing pre-planned strategies. Experts say this effectively places the country’s military operations on a form of strategic “autopilot.”
Although Iran lacks the advanced technology of US and Israeli forces, analysts argue that the doctrine enables sustained resistance and could drag the conflict into a prolonged war of attrition.
