India’s economic engine appears to have kept up its pace in the third quarter of FY26. According to a report by Union Bank of India, the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth for Q3 FY26 is likely to come in at 8.3 per cent, remaining elevated despite the drag of an unfavourable base effect.
The projection suggests a sharp improvement from 6.4 per cent recorded in Q3 FY25, underscoring the resilience of domestic demand at a time when global growth remains uneven. The official GDP numbers for the quarter are scheduled to be released on February 27, reported IANS.
Demand Boost From GST Cuts
A key driver behind the anticipated strength, the Union Bank of India report noted, is demand stimulated by the goods and services tax (GST) rate cuts. Lower indirect taxes tend to leave more money in the hands of consumers and businesses, encouraging spending and investment. That boost appears to have filtered through the economy in the December quarter.
The report also expects gross value added (GVA) growth, a measure that strips out the impact of taxes and subsidies, to improve to 8 per cent in Q3 FY26, compared with 6.5 per cent in the same period last year. However, this may be marginally slower than the 8.1 per cent recorded in the second quarter of FY26.
The contrast between Q2 and Q3 highlights that while growth momentum remains strong, the pace of expansion may be stabilising rather than accelerating dramatically.
Nominal Growth Moderates As Inflation Eases
While real GDP growth is projected to stay firm, nominal GDP growth is estimated to have moderated. The Union Bank of India report pegged nominal growth at 8.5 per cent for Q3 FY26, lower than 8.7 per cent in Q2 and 10.3 per cent in Q3 FY25.
The softer nominal expansion is attributed to a decline in the GDP deflator, a broad measure of inflation, amid easing price pressures. Lower inflation reduces the nominal value of output even if real production volumes remain healthy. In simple terms, the economy may be growing strongly in real terms, but slower price increases are tempering the headline nominal numbers.
Base Year Revision Adds A Layer Of Uncertainty
An additional variable complicating the interpretation of the numbers is the impending GDP base year revision. The Union Bank of India said its estimates are based on the old base year, given the uncertainty surrounding the impact of the revised series.
The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) will release GDP data with a revised base year of 2022-23. The government has stated that FY 2022-23 has been selected as the new base year, with updated inputs designed to strengthen estimates across institutional sectors, particularly private corporations and MSME-heavy activities where data gaps have historically existed.
Such revisions can meaningfully alter historical growth comparisons and trend assessments. While the near-term outlook for FY26 appears broadly resilient, annual projections may need recalibration once clarity emerges on the revised series.
