The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has secured a landslide victory in the country’s first parliamentary elections since the deadly 2024 uprising that forced then-prime minister Sheikh Hasina from office.The BNP is led by 60-year-old Tarique Rahman, its prime ministerial candidate, who returned to Bangladesh in December after spending 17 years in self-exile in London. He is the son of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, who passed away in December.The contest was largely a two-way race between the BNP and an 11-party alliance led by the Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami, a conservative religious party whose growing political influence has raised concerns, particularly among women and minority communities.In immediate recognition of the political shift in Dhaka, New Delhi signaled its readiness to engage with the incoming government.Extending his wishes on X (formerly Twitter), Prime Minister Narendra Modi stated, “I convey my warm congratulations to Mr. Tarique Rahman on leading BNP to a decisive victory in the Parliamentary elections in Bangladesh. This victory shows the trust of the people of Bangladesh in your leadership. India will continue to stand in support of a democratic, progressive and inclusive Bangladesh. I look forward to working with you to strengthen our multifaceted relations and advance our common development goals.”The Prime Minister also spoke to Rahman and extended country’s continued commitment to the peace, progress and prosperity of the people of both countries.”Delighted to speak with Mr. Tarique Rahman. I congratulated him on the remarkable victory in the Bangladesh elections.The BNP, in turn, thanked India and Prime Minister Modi for recognising the verdict of Bangladesh’s general elections and expressed hope that bilateral relations would strengthen under the new government.What the BNP’s win means for IndiaOne of the most pressing geopolitical challenges before the new administration will be recalibrating ties with India. Under Sheikh Hasina, New Delhi was Dhaka’s closest strategic partner. However, relations deteriorated sharply following her ouster, with tensions becoming more visible in recent months.BNP’s past history with IndiaThe BNP’s earlier terms in office (1991–96 and 2001–06) were marked by periodic friction with New Delhi.Diplomatic ties reached particularly low points during the 2001–06 period, when the BNP governed in coalition with the right-wing Jamaat-e-Islami. Indian officials accused the BNP-led government of failing to curb anti-India insurgent groups operating from Bangladeshi territory. Concerns peaked in 2004 when a large cache of arms, allegedly meant for the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA), was seized in Chittagong.In contrast, India invested heavily in its partnership with Sheikh Hasina over the past 15 years, viewing her government as a dependable partner on security cooperation and regional stability.What Tarique Rahman has said on IndiaDespite the historical baggage, Tarique Rahman has recently adopted a pragmatic tone. The BNP’s 2026 election manifesto introduced the doctrine of “Bangladesh Before All,” under the slogan: “Friends, yes; Masters, no.”In an interview with The Guardian, Rahman acknowledged that relations with India deteriorated after Hasina’s removal but emphasised his desire for “a relationship of mutual respect and mutual understanding.”When asked whether full normalisation was possible while India continues to provide refuge to Sheikh Hasina—whose extradition the BNP has formally sought—Rahman responded cautiously, saying, “That depends. It has to be on them too.”Hindu minorityThe safety of minorities, particularly the Hindu community, remains a sensitive and closely watched issue in bilateral ties. In the months following Hasina’s ouster in August last year, several incidents of violence targeting minorities were reported.India responded with a strongly worded statement. “The unremitting hostilities against minorities in Bangladesh, including Hindus, Christians and Buddhists, at the hands of extremists are a matter of grave concern,” New Delhi said.“Over 2,900 incidents of violence against minorities, including cases of killings, arson and land grabbing, have been documented by independent sources during the tenure of the interim government. These incidents cannot be brushed aside as mere media exaggerations or dismissed as political violence,” the MEA spokesperson added.Infiltration and border securitySecuring the long and porous India-Bangladesh border remains one of the most sensitive issues between the two countries. Illegal cross-border migration continues to be politically charged in border states such as West Bengal and Assam.The BNP’s manifesto promises to take a “strict position” to end alleged “border killings” by India’s Border Security Force (BSF) and to halt what it describes as “push-ins” of individuals from the Indian side without due legal process.Water-sharing and the Teesta issueBangladesh shares 54 rivers with India, making river diplomacy central to bilateral engagement. The BNP manifesto places significant emphasis on securing what it calls a “fair share” of water from transboundary rivers such as the Teesta and the Padma.The party has signalled that it may pursue the China-backed Teesta River Master Plan—an initiative that New Delhi has opposed due to concerns over Chinese involvement near the strategically sensitive Siliguri Corridor.Additionally, the 1996 Ganges Water Treaty is due for renewal this year.Ultimately, the BNP’s decisive return to power represents a significant geopolitical shift in South Asia. For New Delhi, the phase of relying predominantly on one political leadership in Dhaka has ended, replaced by the need to engage a more assertive and politically distinct administration. Go to Source
