Amid heightened tensions between Iran and the United States, there is widespread belief that the two countries could strike each other at any moment. While the situation appears volatile on the surface, several developments suggest that a war may not be imminent.
Fact No. 1: Execution of Irfan Soltani did not take place
US President Donald Trump had threatened action against Iran after Tehran announced plans to publicly execute protester Irfan Soltani. Trump warned of serious consequences if the execution went ahead. The execution, scheduled for January 14, was later postponed. Trump subsequently said that executions and murders were being stopped in Iran, indicating a possible shift in his stance.
Fact No. 2: Iran reopens its airspace
After Trump’s threat, Iran closed its airspace, signalling that any aircraft entering it could be treated as an attack. Iran has since reopened its airspace, with flights resuming to various cities and aircraft operating on schedule.
Fact No. 3: Crude oil prices fall
Market behaviour has also suggested easing tensions. A potential war would likely have pushed oil prices higher. Instead, crude oil prices fell by $2 per barrel in the international market on January 15, boosting confidence that conflict may have been averted.
Fact No. 4: Promised US help does not materialise
Trump had earlier urged Iranian protesters to continue demonstrations and occupy government buildings, promising that help would arrive soon. Three to four days after those remarks, no such assistance has materialised. When asked in the Oval Office whether a US military operation had been halted, Trump said he was still looking into it, adding to uncertainty over Washington’s intentions.
Signs of escalation remain
Despite these indicators, some developments continue to point towards the possibility of war. The US Navy’s fleet is reportedly advancing towards Iran from the South China Sea. Meanwhile, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is seen as prepared to take extreme measures.
Given the current situation, war seems inevitable.